Edited by GF Securities Co., LTD.: "the debate on the authenticity of consumption degradation: the Evolution of Automobile demand trend from the Perspective of passenger car structure"
The growth rate of retail sales of automobile goods has slowed down significantly since 2018, and the growth rate of car sales turned negative for the first time in July, sparking concerns about the downgrade of consumption.From the point of view of the changes in passenger car sales structure and important configuration, GF Securities Co., LTD. believes that automobile consumption is still upgrading.
Consumption downgrade means that consumers are no longer willing to pay a high premium for high-quality goods, but prefer high-quality and cheap goods.
1. From the perspective of passenger car sales structure, the upward trend of price is obvious, and the proportion of high-end model sales of 30-500000 yuan has increased significantly.
From the overall market situation, the rapid increase in the proportion of sales from 2010 to 2017 is 15-200000 yuan, 30-500000 yuan and 10-150000 yuan, respectively.
In passenger cars, the luxury brand market continues to grow rapidly, with a significant increase in market share.According to the China Automobile Association, the wholesale sales of mainstream luxury brand passenger cars in 2017 were 1.765 million, an increase of 20.0% over the same period last year, accounting for 7.1% of the domestic passenger car market. In the first half of 18, the wholesale sales of luxury cars were 987000, an increase of 19.2% over the same period last year. Market share further increased to 8.4%.
From the perspective of independent brands, the average price of passenger cars of independent brands has moved up, and the trend of high-end is significant.In 2010, self-branded passenger cars were mostly concentrated in the price range of less than 100000 yuan, accounting for 81.9% of sales, falling to 56.4% in 2017 and further to 53.1% in May 18 years ago.
2. The rapid increase in matching rate of automatic gearbox also reflects the upgrading of consumption.
The continuous and rapid increase in the penetration of automatic transmissions represents a new trend in the upgrading of high-end intelligent consumption: according to the actual sales of passenger car terminals tracked by GF Securities Co., LTD., the matching rates of automatic transmissions in domestic passenger cars in 15-17 years were 53.5%, 58.5% and 67.2%, respectively, and reached 73.2% in July 18 years ago.
Investment advice:
After the withdrawal of the stimulus policy, the growth rate of passenger car sales is under pressure, while the trend of consumption upgrading remains unchanged, medium-and high-end will help to improve the premium ability of car companies' brands, and the recent tariff adjustment and joint venture stock ratio liberalization will help to accelerate industry innovation and reshuffle in the long run. From the choice of investment targets, companies with stable profitability and discounted valuation have better allocation value, and the passenger car sector continues to recommend Huayu Automobile and SAIC.
Risk Tips:
The macro-economy is not as expected; the prosperity of the industry is not as expected; the industry policy is not in line with expectations.
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