Main points of investment:
The merger and acquisition of Hongnao Railway and the construction of Jiannao Railway will create a golden section of Xinjiang that can export the main artery. The Hongnao railway has a total length of 435.6 km, with an initial designed annual transport capacity of 39.5 million tons and a long-term capacity of 150 million tons per year. In the future, after connecting the Nao railway, it will effectively solve the problem of commodity transportation in the mining areas of Zhundong, Santanghu and Namaohu. The distance out of Xinjiang is about 300km shorter than that of the existing Wujiang-Lanxin line, and it has become the best channel for coal resources out of Xinjiang. With a total length of 431.7 km, the project is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2023; the short-term designed transport capacity will be 2200 million tons / year, and the long-term capacity will reach 7000 million tons / year. After Guanghui Logistics acquired Hongnao Railway, it is assumed that the freight of 22-24 tons is 0.225 yuan, and the freight volume in 22-24 years is 14 million tons, 17.5 million tons and 21.88 million tons. It is estimated that the net profit after tax in 22 years is 159 million yuan, and the net profit is 148 million yuan, which greatly thickens the performance of the company.
The construction of large-scale coal supply guarantee base in Xinjiang has been accelerated, and the rich coal resources in Zhendong-Hami region provide a solid "basic plate" for railway transportation. Taking into account the uneven distribution of coal in China, cross-regional transport demand, superimposed the impact of accelerated withdrawal of small and medium-sized mining areas in the eastern region, the pace of energy security base construction in the western region is accelerated. It is estimated that during the 14th five-year Plan period, Xinjiang's new coal production capacity totaled 164 million tons, with an increase of more than 60%. Among them, Tuha District has an existing coal-producing mineral capacity of 6760 million tons per year, with an estimated additional production capacity of 8600 million tons per year. In addition, the Zhendong Economic and technological Development Zone is actively building a coal resources conversion base, and the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum and polysilicon in the region is estimated to reach 1200 million tons per year.
The demise of the real estate business is coming to an end, and short-term performance is still guaranteed. The company promises to take the main logistics industry as the core and will not add new real estate projects after 2019; the stock project has entered the final stage and the subsequent cash flow pressure is relatively small. Gather the advantages of the rapid development of the industry and make efforts to the logistics industry. Under the background of the policy to promote the rapid development of cold chain logistics, the company successfully acquired the Gexin project and actively laid out the air-facing economic demonstration zone. The Meju Logistics Park has successfully completed its transformation and upgrading, and the follow-up is expected to form a synergy with other projects such as the airport economic zone to contribute to the performance increment of the company.
Profit forecast and rating. As a listed logistics enterprise of A shareholder camp, the company locates energy + cold chain + commerce and trade multi-dimensional logistics company.
Based on the relative valuation model, the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 0.52,0.59,0.62 yuan respectively, and the current market capitalization corresponding to PE is 9x, 8x and 7x respectively, and the PB corresponding to the current market capitalization from 2022 to 2023 is estimated to be 0.98 and 1.00 respectively. The industry average valuation PE from 2022 to 2024 is 17x, 13x and 11X, respectively. The average 2022-2023 PB is 1.27X and 1.20X, respectively. The company's 2022-2023 PB discount is 30% and 20%, and the static PB discount is 40%. Give the company a valuation of its 1.27X 22-year PB target, and the current share price corresponds to 0.98X 22-year PB, which is about 30 per cent higher than the current price. Cover for the first time, giving the company a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the decline in demand has led to lower-than-expected turnover; the construction progress of the Nao railway project will be lower than expected.