Refined from Yangtze River Securities "continuous improvement in the Industry, leading in the tax-free sector-- A Summary of the performance of the Catering and Tourism Industry in 2018"

Editor's note: the 2018 reports of 32 A-share companies in the catering and tourism sector have been disclosed. Changjiang Securities collates and analyzes the development status and forecast of the plate, and analyzes in detail the sub-sectors of tax exemption, outbound travel, scenic spots, hotels and catering.

According to the classification of CITIC catering tourism, the 2018 reports of 32 companies have been disclosed, with a total revenue of 63.461 billion yuan, an increase of 27.59%, and a net profit of 5.21 billion yuan, an increase of 33.09%.

According to the 2018 report, the growth rate of revenue plate is as follows: tax exemption > outbound travel > scenic spot > hotel > catering, and return to mother net profit plate growth tax exemption > scenic spot > hotel > catering > outbound travel.

In terms of profitabilityIn the first half of 2018, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the catering and tourism sector increased slightly compared with the same period last year, with increases of 0.86% and 0.58% respectively.

Cash flowIn 2018H, the net cash flow generated by business activities in the catering and tourism sector was the same as the same period last year, but the sector's ability to convert income and income into cash flow was improving. From the perspective of revenue quality, the net cash flow generated by operating activities accounts for 8.90% of revenue (+ 1.97pct), and the ability to convert income and income into cash flow is increasing.

From the perspective of sub-plate, the net cash flow of hotel, duty-free, scenic spot and catering plate is larger, accounts for a higher proportion of revenue, and the revenue quality is better. The net cash flow of business activities in the outbound travel sector is negative, which is mainly due to the cost first in the process of company operation and business development, and more advance payments such as air tickets.

Analysis of each sub-plate of catering tourism

1. Tax exemption

According to Bain, the recovery of high-end consumption rose in 2017, and the personal luxury goods market bottomed out and rebounded to a new high, and is expected to maintain steady growth of about 4% over the next three years.

In 2017, the growth rate of domestic luxury consumption rebounded significantly, and luxury consumption gradually returned. China's domestic consumption of luxury goods accounted for 23% in 2016, rising for the first time in five years, indicating that China's overseas consumption has shown signs of returning.

At present, the scale of China's domestic duty-free industry is still small, benefiting from the return of overseas consumption, and there is plenty of room for development. From the perspective of overseas consumption return, it is estimated that China's duty-free market is expected to reach 100 billion yuan in 2025.

Judging from the pace of development of the market size of the duty-free industry, before the proportion of domestic luxury consumption is expected to rise by 20 per cent (before reaching 45 per cent), the market size of the duty-free industry is growing rapidly (more than 20 per cent), and the market size of the duty-free industry is expected to approach 80 billion by 2021, and the growth rate will slow after that.

2. Hotel

In the first half of 2018, the hotel sector achieved a total revenue of 15.07 billion (+ 7.71%), a net profit of 849 million (+ 23.62%) and a non-net profit of 603 million (+ 35.17%).

At present, the industry has entered the second stage of house price promotion to lead the recovery, and the RevPAR of middle and high-end hotels has maintained rapid growth.

3. Scenic spot

In the first half of 2018, the scenic spot plate achieved a total operating income of 12.73 billion (+ 14.98%) and a net profit of 1.894 billion (+ 29.89%).

4. Catering

In the first half of 2018, the catering sector achieved a total operating income of 1.922 billion (+ 6.61%) and a net profit of 134 million (+ 14.83%).

In 2017, the income of China's catering industry reached 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.7% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 0.5% higher than that of retail sales of consumer goods, second only to the United States in terms of GDP4.8%,. The more the society moves forward, the stronger the demand for the catering industry, and the brighter the future of the catering industry.

The overall development of the industry is good, hot pot and group meals are excellent. From the top 100 Chinese catering groups, under the reshuffle of the market, mass catering has become a new main body of the market. From the perspective of profitability, the turnover growth rate of hot pot and group meals is higher, and the profit margins of Chinese dinners and leisure meals are better.

5. outbound travel: the recovery of European tourism, the high popularity of Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia, the leader has benefited.

In the first half of 2018, the outbound travel sector achieved a total operating income of 12.134 billion (+ 23.04%) and a net profit of 442 million (+ 12.69%).

The outbound data of Chinese people improved in the first half of 2018, with 77.941 million mainland residents leaving the country, an increase of 14.1% over the same period last year, according to the State Administration of Immigration.