Today we're going to talk about the world's largest pharmaceutical company--$Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) $。

As of June 1, Pfizer closed up 0.04% at $52.39. Since the circuit breaker at the end of March 2020, share prices have performed strongly, up more than 96%.

1. How did Pfizer Inc nearly double the growth of stock price and revenue?

Pfizer Inc's income hit an all-time high of $81.29 billion in 2021, up 94 per cent from $41.9 billion in 2020.

This remarkable achievement is entirely due to its COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty and COVID-19 's oral antiviral drug Paxlovid. These two COVID-19 products have nearly doubled revenue growth for the company. Of this total, the vaccine Comirnaty generated revenue of US $37 billion, accounting for 45.5% of Pfizer Inc's total revenue. FDA Paxlovid was granted emergency use of Paxlovid on December 23, 2021 and earned US $76 million in one week. It is expected to start volume in 2022 and become a new growth point for Pfizer Inc. With COVID-19 's product layout, Pfizer Inc, who ranks second in revenue in 2021, is very likely to overtake it in the next two years.$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) $To become the world's highest-revenue pharmaceutical company.

2. What should Pfizer Inc be worried about after the epidemic?

There has been vigorous growth in 2021, and although Pfizer Inc's guidance for 2022 contributed $32 billion in revenue for Comirnaty and $220for Paxlovid, sales dependent on two new crown drugs are likely to decline rapidly as the epidemic fades.

If we remove the contribution of COVID-19 's products Comirnaty and PaxlovidPfizer Inc's other products generated a total revenue of $44.4 billion in 2021, an increase of about 6% over the same period last year.. This is better than another big American pharmaceutical company.$Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY.US) $Income in 2021 is less than $46.385 billion, and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's current market capitalization of about $159.6 billion is almost half of Pfizer Inc's $293.8 billion, so if, as expected, Comirnaty and Paxlovid sales start to decline after 2023, Pfizer Inc's valuation will start to look too high. Of course, the revenue growth of other products may be able to improve after the epidemic, as the outbreak of COVID-19 led to a slowdown in the sales of many of Pfizer Inc's traditional vaccines, affecting revenue growth to some extent.

The situation is even worse at 22Q1, where revenue from other products grew by just 2 per cent at 22Q1, excluding two COVID-19 products.

So if the market is optimistic that Paxlovid and Comirnaty generate revenue of $18 billion + $20 billion in FY23, then their contribution is about $16 billion lower than the FY22 guidelines, and it is worth noting that the income of vaccine Comirnaty is similar to that of FY22.$BioNTech (BNTX.US) $Split it equally.

In addition to the impact of the fading of the epidemic, Pfizer Inc will face the challenge of centralizing the expiration of patents for a number of drugs from 2024 to 2027.The patents of small molecular multi-target receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor Sutent, renal cell carcinoma targeting drug Inlyta, anti-inflammatory drug Xeljanz, pneumonia vaccine Prevnar13, anticoagulant Eliquis, breast cancer drug Ibrance and prostate cancer drug Xtandi will all expire, which may be the biggest challenge for Pfizer Inc's medium-term growth.

3. Pfizer Inc's future highlights

Since the epidemic is a "black swan" event that no one can accurately predict, if the epidemic ends, what should Pfizer Inc rely on to maintain such a brilliant performance in the past two years?

According to 22Q1, Pfizer Inc has $54 billion in liquid assets on his account, and Albert Bourla, the chief executive, is using the money to try various mergers and acquisitions in an attempt to help Pfizer Inc cushion the blow of falling revenues from the epidemic.

In August 2021, Pfizer Inc bought Canada-based company for $2.26 billion$Trillium Therapeutics (TRIL.US) $，To obtain two kinds of therapy for blocking CD47-SIRP α signal pathway. Trillium specializes in the development of advanced cancer treatments, including biological agents that improve the innate immune system's ability to recognize and kill cancer cells.

In December 2021, Pfizer Inc bought Arena Pharmaceuticals for $6.7 billion.Arena's products are mainly concentrated in the areas of gastrointestinal diseases, skin diseases and heart disease. Including etrasimod, an oral selective sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) receptor modulator, was developed for the treatment of a range of immuno-inflammatory diseases, including gastrointestinal and skin diseases. The Arena deal is also a good business for Pfizer Inc, as it recently achieved positive results in Phase 3 trials of ulcerative colitis ("UC") and is planning to submit an application for approval this year.

On April 8th this year, Pfizer Inc bought ReViral for $525 million.Antiviral drugs for respiratory syncytial virus ("RSV") were obtained. Pfizer Inc believes that ReViral's RSV project has an annual revenue of 1.5 billion US dollars, but this is a highly competitive market because$Moderna Inc (MRNA.US) $It is hoped that the MRNA RSV vaccine will be put on the market.

On April 11 this year, Pfizer Inc bought Australia's digital health company for A $100m$ResApp Health Ltd (RAP.AU) $The company focuses on developing mobile phone software to diagnose respiratory diseases and uses machine learning algorithms to detect COVID-19 from coughing sounds.

On May 10 this year, it was acquired for 11.6 billion US dollars.$Biohaven Pharmaceutical (BHVN.US) $Biohaven is the manufacturer of double-effect migraine therapy NURTEC ODT, which is approved for acute treatment and occasional prevention of migraine in adults. After this deal, a number of Biohaven's leading products will also be incorporated into the Pfizer Inc pipeline. The company's star product is a small molecular oral calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor antagonist called Rimegepant, the first oral drug approved by FDA for acute migraine treatment and prevention of migraine attacks. The drug generated $462 million in sales in 2021.

In addition to foreign mergers and acquisitions, let's take a look at Pfizer Inc's internal research and development products.

In March 2021, Pfizer Inc's third generation ALK inhibitor Lorbrena was approved by the US FDA to expand adaptation.症。Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide, with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) accounting for about 80-85% of lung cancer. ALK-positive tumors account for about 3-5% of NSCLC cases, and about 25-40% of ALK-positive NSCLC patients develop brain metastasis within 2 years after initial diagnosis. The disadvantage of Pfizer Inc's first generation ALK inhibitor Xalkori is that it is ineffective against brain metastasis, which is a common side effect in patients with NSCLC. Third-generation Lorbrena improves this and can be used to suppress the most common tumor mutations that drive current drug resistance and to address brain metastases in the most common sites of ALK-positive NSCLC diseases.

Pfizer Inc announced the results of Lorbrena's three-year follow-up at the annual meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) in April. The results showed that Lorbrena reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 73% compared with the active control group. The treatment has also recently received regulatory approval in China for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer with ALK positive.

Ritlecitinib is a very promising product for management. In August 2021, this alopecia treatment achieved positive results in the 2b/ Phase 3 trial, which improved scalp hair regeneration in patients with alopecia areata.At present, there is no drug approved to treat the disease in the United States.$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US) $和$Insett (INCY.US) $The two pharmaceutical giants are also in the competition, and the drug is also being evaluated for the treatment of vitiligo, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, and the market is expected to generate sales of more than $1 billion a year.

At the 22Q1 results meeting, the company said it expects to receive 16 regulatory approvals, 19 key clinical trials and 15 proof-of-concept trials in the next 18 months.

The revenue guidance given by Pfizer Inc for 2022 is $98 billion to $102 billion. According to 22Q1's performance, Pfizer Inc is capable of achieving this full-year target. But we need to accept the fact that nearly 100 billion yuan in revenue driven by COVID-19 's products is short-lived for Pfizer Inc, and annual income is likely to decline to a certain extent after the epidemic fades in the next two or three years.

In this regard, Pfizer Inc is actively using the sufficient cash on hand to acquire and acquire pharmaceutical companies to enrich the product line to increase new income. It is understood that the value of mergers and acquisitions in the biopharmaceutical industry in the first quarter fell to its lowest level since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, as large pharmaceutical companies have been shunning large deals and tend to co-operate or acquire smaller companies. This is consistent with Pfizer Inc's recent acquisitions. Pfizer Inc is looking for medium-sized acquisitions instead of looking for people like$Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD.US) $或$Bojian Company (BIIB.US) $Such a declining giant. To a certain extent, this shows that other companies have made fewer acquisitions in the past two years, while Pfizer Inc can make use of the advantage of capital to harvest more high-quality small and medium-sized companies.