Zhitong Financial APP learned that Sino-Thai Securities released a research report saying that the domestic HPV vaccine vaccination rate is low, the stock market is broad, and it will remain a supply-driven market in the short term. The bank is optimistic about companies with leading progress and strong sales ability, such asZhifei (300122.SZ), Wantai (603392.SH), Watson (300142.SZ), etc.. In the medium to long term, with the increase in the penetration rate of HPV vaccines and the approval of more domestic vaccines, it will change from a supply-driven market to a demand-driven market. Product upgrading and overseas market development will become new highlights. It is recommended to pay attention to enterprises with strong product strength and leading R & D progress, such asRuike Bio-B (02179), Guardian of Recreation等。
The main points of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:
Why can HPV vaccine become the best-selling non-COVID-19 vaccine in the world?
The global burden of cervical cancer is heavy, and HPV vaccine is an effective means of prevention. According to WHO data, there are about 604000 new cases of cervical cancer and 342000 deaths in the world in 2020 (of which 110000 and 59000 are domestic new cases and deaths respectively). The incidence of cervical cancer is closely related to HPV infection. WHO proposed a global strategy to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer in 2020. 194 countries, including China, pledged to vaccinate more than 90 per cent of girls aged 9-14 against HPV by 2030. Since it was put on the market in 2006, HPV vaccine has been rapidly promoted in most countries and regions in the world. Merck & Co Inc's Gardasil series reached 5.673 billion US dollars in global sales in 2021, making it the best-selling non-COVID-19 vaccine in the world.
What is the permeability and potential space of HPV vaccine?
Supply and demand in the global market is tight, and the domestic stock market space can reach hundreds of billions. The global HPV vaccine coverage rate shows a dumbbell distribution, high-income countries benefit from sound immunization programs, and the coverage rate of people of the right age is generally high. The coverage rate of some countries (such as Sweden, the United Kingdom, Australia, etc.) has reached 70% and 80%. Some low-and middle-income countries have also achieved high vaccination rates funded by international organizations, such as Bhutan and Rwanda, which have exceeded 90%. Although more than half of the world's countries have introduced the HPV vaccine, 70 per cent of the world's women still live in countries that have not yet been introduced because of the size of the population. By the end of 2021, the total number of HPV vaccines issued in China was about 62 million. Based on a total of 340 million of China's female population aged 9-45, the cumulative penetration rate of the stock was only about 5.6%. Since 2020, many provinces and cities in China have put forward free HPV vaccine vaccination programs. With the promotion of government immunization planning and the deepening of market education, the penetration rate of domestic HPV vaccine is expected to increase rapidly. The bank estimates that the domestic market size can reach 156.6 billion yuan, and the stock market space is broad.
How will the competition pattern evolve in the future, and where are the opportunities for domestic enterprises?
Domestic HPV vaccine enterprises are on the rise, paying attention to product iteration and overseas market development in the medium and long term. At present, domestic commercial HPV vaccines include: Gardasil/Gardasil9; of Merck & Co Inc and 2-valent HPV vaccines of GSK, Wantai Biological and Watson Biology. among them, Xinkening of Wantai Biological was approved in December 2019 and has been released rapidly since it was put on the market. It has occupied about 20% of the domestic market by 2021. Due to the high vaccination willingness of domestic women of school age and the short supply of HPV vaccine, production capacity has become the main limiting factor at this stage. The bank believes that the competition pattern of 2 imports + 2 domestic companies will remain stable in the short term, and the penetration rate of HPV vaccine is expected to increase rapidly with the release of production capacity. In the medium and long term, the 9-price pipeline of many domestic vaccine companies has been promoted to the clinical Ⅲ phase, and expression systems and new adjuvants will also promote the iteration of HPV vaccine products, differential competition between domestic and imported products, and share the vast domestic stock market.
Risk Tips:Risk of intensified competition and price reduction of HPV vaccine; risk that research and development progress is not as expected; risk of deviation in market capacity measurement; case risk of vaccine adverse reaction events; policy and regulatory risk