编者按：美股牛股辈出，科技、消费、医疗保健、金融、能源、工业……几乎每个行业都有公司在资本市场上熠熠生辉。有的公司顺应产业趋势，不断拓宽护城河，经历数十年风雨依然坚挺向上，有的公司在短期风险中遭到错杀，牛股侦探致力于发现这些优质的公司，和牛友共同挖掘更多投资机会。
今天我们来聊聊两大能源巨头——$埃克森美孚(XOM.US)$和$雪佛龙(CVX.US)$。
这两家公司均由石油大亨洛克菲勒的标准石油公司发展而来，见证了石油工业的百年风云。上世纪，标准石油公司因垄断问题被迫拆分为七家石油公司（又被称为「石油七姐妹」），到如今，7家中还有4家继续营业，他们分别是埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、$Shell PLC(SHEL.US)$和$英国石油(BP.US)$。
之所以聊到这两家公司，是因为能源股表现实在太出众了。今年以来，受新冠疫情反复及地缘政治紧张局势的影响，能源紧危机席卷全球，石油和天然气价格飙升，油气板块也持续走强，多家公司股价不断刷新历史高点，其中就包括埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、$康菲石油(COP.US)$、$马拉松原油(MPC.US)$等。从本轮上涨的起点——2020年3月下旬算起，雪佛龙和埃克森美孚至今都已涨约260%。
我们很难预测油气板块的这轮上涨还会持续多久，但由于能源供应紧张问题还在升温，天然气价格继续大涨，油价也易涨难跌，加上石油巨头在拿到油价带来的巨额利润之后，并没有选择继续投资以提高供应，而是维持谨慎的资本开支计划，并通过回购和派息回报股东，因此有分析认为，油气板块的上涨行情可能短期内不会结束。
那么，就埃克森美孚和雪佛龙来说，两者谁更有潜力？股神巴菲特为何在最近三个季度连续加仓雪佛龙，而不是埃克森美孚？
雪佛龙业绩增速更快，埃克森美孚估值相对更低
从业务上看，埃克森美孚实行上下游一体化的发展战略，即石油勘探开发、炼油和化工、产品批发零售的一体化业务。公司的主营业务可以分为上游、下游和化学品三大板块。
上游板块的产品主要有原油和天然气；下游板块产品主要有汽油、石脑油、柴油煤油、航空燃油、重油和润滑油等；化工板块主要有石化产品、聚合物、一般化学品和增塑剂等。
埃克森美孚主要收入来自下游，主要利润来自上游。
雪佛龙是一家综合性石油和天然气公司，业务涉及价值链的多个环节，包括上游（生产）、中游（管道和储存）和下游（炼油和营销）运营。雪佛龙将业务其分为两个主要部分：上游和下游。
其中，上游业务主要包括勘探、开发和生产原油和天然气，产品运输、存储和营销也纳入上游分部。下游业务主要包括将原油精炼成石油产品，以及制造可再生燃料。
与埃克森美孚一样，雪佛龙主要收入来自下游，主要利润来自上游。
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埃克森美孚和雪佛龙都拥有业内最安全的资产负债表，盈利指标和估值指标均具有吸引力，而且还大手笔回购股票并向股东返还资金。
今年一季度，埃克森美孚和雪佛龙分别实现营收877.34亿、523.14亿美元，分别同比增长52.44%、68.34%。归母净利润分别为54.8亿、62.59亿，同比增长100.73%、354.54%。埃克森美孚和雪佛龙一季度自由现金流分别为108.77亿、60.95亿美元。
除了业绩增速外，雪佛龙一季度的毛利率为31.16%，也高于埃克森美孚的22.56%。这两家公司的债务/EBITDA 比率都远低于1倍，反映财务实力强大。
截至5月30日，埃克森美孚股息率为3.59%，雪佛龙为3.05%；埃克森美孚滚动市盈率为16.18倍，雪佛龙为16.75倍。两项指标都比较接近。
按过去12个月的自由现金流算，雪佛龙的P/FCF为约13倍，高于埃克森美孚的10倍，表明埃克森美孚可能相对被低估了。
埃克森美孚回购力度更大，雪佛龙派息更壕
回购方面，埃克森美孚CEO在Q1业绩会上表示，「公司向股东返还了58亿美元，其中约三分之二以股息形式，其余为股票回购，与之前的计划一致。我们此前在12月的公司计划更新中表示，预计将回购100亿美元的股票。这次，我们宣布增加回购计划，到2023年总计回购300亿美元。」
雪佛龙未来的股票回购不太明确，目前来看数额远低于埃克森美孚的300亿美元。
在2021年二季度业绩报告发布时，雪佛龙宣布从2021年第三季度开始恢复股票回购，每年回购20-30亿美元规模雪佛龙股票。之后两次上调回购指引，今年3月在年度投资者会议上宣布将股票回购指引提高到每年50-100亿美元。一季度业绩会上，雪佛龙透露，将在今年年底前回购创纪录的100亿美元股票。
股票分析师Bill Zettler表示，假设回购持续到2023年，雪佛龙的回购总额将达到175亿美元，而埃克森美孚为300亿美元。然而，在2022年第一季度，雪佛龙仅回购了13亿美元的股票。所以在回购层面，埃克森美孚更胜一筹。
派息方面，雪佛龙过去5年股息金额及增幅均超过埃克森美孚。这两家公司都没有做出任何具体的派息承诺，只是说增加股息是公司政策的一部分。相对来说，雪佛龙的派息比埃克森美孚大方。
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股神偏爱雪佛龙，高盛看好埃克森美孚
股神巴菲特今年尤其看好石油股，除了建仓西方石油之外，还大手笔增持雪佛龙，这两只石油股均在股神的前十大重仓股之列，合共占投资组合的9.26%。
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伯克希尔2022年Q1前十大持仓股，资料来源：whalewisdom
相比埃克森美孚，股神更偏爱雪佛龙。实际上，从去年第三季度开始，巴菲特就持续加仓雪佛龙，其中今年一季度加仓幅度最大。但对于埃克森美孚，自2014年四季度清仓之后，巴菲特就再也没有持有过该股。
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伯克希尔对雪佛龙持仓变动，资料来源：whalewisdom
巴菲特曾在2021年伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会上表示，他认为继续拥有雪佛龙公司股票没有任何问题，并预计即使世界越来越多地转向可再生能源，雪佛龙公司未来仍将继续造福社会。
据了解，雪佛龙在生物燃料和碳捕获等领域取得进展，有望推动其能源业务转型。
近日，雪佛龙公司CEO迈克尔·沃思在一份声明中表示，公司计划重点降低其业务的碳强度，目标是引领低碳强度的石油、产品和天然气，并推出减少主要行业碳排放的新产品和解决方案。
高盛则认为雪佛龙投资吸引力不如埃克森美孚，理由如下：
「在 2022年第一季财报发布后，我们对雪佛龙的中性评级维持不变。一如之前所讨论的，虽然我们对能源股保持看多观点，并确认美国重点企业是能源类股的重要组成部分，但我们相信被评为买入的埃克森美孚的价值更具吸引力，总回报率为26%，而非中性评级雪佛龙的回报率6%。
此外，我们也强调，鉴于雪佛龙相对于埃克森美孚的下游业务较少，雪佛龙全球炼油能力为每天180万桶，而埃克森美孚为460万桶，炼油能力后者更具建设性；除了雪佛龙的相对炼油能力较少外，该公司的上游项目相对于埃克森美孚的优势也比较小，埃克森美孚提供了具有吸引力的成长机会，例如短期内在圭亚那，以及包括 Golden Pass 和 Coral FLNG 在内的液化天然气项目。」
编者按：美股牛股辈出，科技、消费、医疗保健、金融、能源、工业……几乎每个行业都有公司在资本市场上熠熠生辉。有的公司顺应产业趋势，不断拓宽护城河，经历数十年风雨依然坚挺向上，有的公司在短期风险中遭到错杀，牛股侦探致力于发现这些优质的公司，和牛友共同挖掘更多投资机会。
Editor's note: us stock bulls emerge in large numbers, science and technology, consumption, health care, finance, energy, industry. There are companies in almost every industry that shine in the capital market. Some companies comply with the industrial trend, constantly expand the moat, still strong after decades of wind and rain, and some companies have been mistakenly killed in short-term risks. Niu stock detectives are committed to finding these high-quality companies and working with Niu friends to explore more investment opportunities.
Both companies developed from the standard oil company of oil tycoon Rockefeller and witnessed a century of success in the oil industry. In the last century, Standard Oil was forced to split into seven oil companies (also known as "Seven Sisters of Oil") because of monopoly problems. up to now, four of the seven are still in business.Exxon Mobil Corp 、 Chevron Corp 、$Shell PLC (SHEL.US) $和$BP P.L.C. (BP.US) $。
之所以聊到这两家公司，是因为能源股表现实在太出众了。今年以来，受新冠疫情反复及地缘政治紧张局势的影响，能源紧危机席卷全球，石油和天然气价格飙升，油气板块也持续走强，多家公司股价不断刷新历史高点，其中就包括埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、$康菲石油(COP.US)$、$马拉松原油(MPC.US)$等。从本轮上涨的起点——2020年3月下旬算起，雪佛龙和埃克森美孚至今都已涨约260%。
The reason why we are talking about these two companies is because the performance of energy stocks is so outstanding. Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of repeated COVID-19 epidemic and geopolitical tensions, the energy crisis has swept the world, oil and gas prices have soared, and oil and gas stocks have continued to strengthen.The share prices of a number of companies continue to hit record highs, including Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron Corp,$ConocoPhillips (COP.US) $、$Marathon crude Oil (MPC.US) $等。From the starting point of this round of rise-- late March 2020, Chevron Corp andExxon Mobil CorpIt has risen by about 260% so far.
我们很难预测油气板块的这轮上涨还会持续多久，但由于能源供应紧张问题还在升温，天然气价格继续大涨，油价也易涨难跌，加上石油巨头在拿到油价带来的巨额利润之后，并没有选择继续投资以提高供应，而是维持谨慎的资本开支计划，并通过回购和派息回报股东，因此有分析认为，油气板块的上涨行情可能短期内不会结束。
It is difficult for us to predict how long this round of rise in the oil and gas sector will last, but as the shortage of energy supply is still heating up, natural gas prices continue to soar, oil prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall, and after the oil majors have made huge profits from oil prices, they do not choose to continue to invest to increase supply, but to maintain a prudent capital expenditure plan and return to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.The rising market of the oil and gas sector may not end in the short term.。
那么，就埃克森美孚和雪佛龙来说，两者谁更有潜力？股神巴菲特为何在最近三个季度连续加仓雪佛龙，而不是埃克森美孚？
So, as far as Exxon Mobil Corp or Chevron Corp is concerned, which one has more potential? Why did Warren Buffett increase his position in Chevron Corp instead of Exxon Mobil Corp in the last three quarters?
雪佛龙业绩增速更快，埃克森美孚估值相对更低
Chevron Corp's performance is growing faster, and Exxon Mobil Corp's valuation is relatively lower.
从业务上看，埃克森美孚实行上下游一体化的发展战略，即石油勘探开发、炼油和化工、产品批发零售的一体化业务。公司的主营业务可以分为上游、下游和化学品三大板块。
From a business point of view, Exxon Mobil Corp implements the development strategy of upstream and downstream integration, that is, the integration of petroleum exploration and development, oil refining and chemical industry, and product wholesale and retail.The company's main business can be divided into three parts: upstream, downstream and chemicals.
上游板块的产品主要有原油和天然气；下游板块产品主要有汽油、石脑油、柴油煤油、航空燃油、重油和润滑油等；化工板块主要有石化产品、聚合物、一般化学品和增塑剂等。
The products of the upstream plate are mainly crude oil and natural gas; the products of the downstream plate are mainly gasoline, naphtha, diesel kerosene, aviation fuel, heavy oil and lubricants; and the chemical sector is mainly petrochemical products, polymers, general chemicals and plasticizers.
Exxon Mobil Corp's main income comes from the downstream, while the main profit comes from the upstream.
Source: Exxon Mobil Corp Quarterly report 2022
雪佛龙是一家综合性石油和天然气公司，业务涉及价值链的多个环节，包括上游（生产）、中游（管道和储存）和下游（炼油和营销）运营。雪佛龙将业务其分为两个主要部分：上游和下游。
Chevron Corp is an integrated oil and gas company whose business involves multiple links of the value chain, including upstream (production), midstream (pipeline and storage) and downstream (refining and marketing) operations.Chevron Corp divides the business into two main parts: upstream and downstream.
其中，上游业务主要包括勘探、开发和生产原油和天然气，产品运输、存储和营销也纳入上游分部。下游业务主要包括将原油精炼成石油产品，以及制造可再生燃料。
Among them, the upstream business mainly includes the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, and the transportation, storage and marketing of products are also included in the upstream segment. Downstream operations mainly include refining crude oil into petroleum products and making renewable fuels.
与埃克森美孚一样，雪佛龙主要收入来自下游，主要利润来自上游。
Like Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron Corp's income mainly comes from the downstream, while the main profit comes from the upstream.
Source: Chevron Corp Quarterly report 2022
埃克森美孚和雪佛龙都拥有业内最安全的资产负债表，盈利指标和估值指标均具有吸引力，而且还大手笔回购股票并向股东返还资金。
Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp both have the safest balance sheets in the industry, earnings indicators and valuation indicators are attractive, and they also buy back shares and return money to shareholders.
今年一季度，埃克森美孚和雪佛龙分别实现营收877.34亿、523.14亿美元，分别同比增长52.44%、68.34%。归母净利润分别为54.8亿、62.59亿，同比增长100.73%、354.54%。埃克森美孚和雪佛龙一季度自由现金流分别为108.77亿、60.95亿美元。
In the first quarter of this year, Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp achieved revenue of US $87.734 billion and US $52.314 billion respectively, up 52.44% and 68.34% respectively over the same period last year. The net profit of homing was 5.48 billion and 6.259 billion respectively, an increase of 100.73% and 354.54% over the same period last year. Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp had free cash flow of $10.877 billion and $6.095 billion respectively in the first quarter.
除了业绩增速外，雪佛龙一季度的毛利率为31.16%，也高于埃克森美孚的22.56%。这两家公司的债务/EBITDA 比率都远低于1倍，反映财务实力强大。
In addition to performance growth, Chevron Corp's gross profit margin in the first quarter was 31.16 per cent, also higher than Exxon Mobil Corp's 22.56 per cent. Both companies have debt-to-EBITDA ratios well below 1, reflecting strong financial strength.
截至5月30日，埃克森美孚股息率为3.59%，雪佛龙为3.05%；埃克森美孚滚动市盈率为16.18倍，雪佛龙为16.75倍。两项指标都比较接近。
As of May 30, Exxon Mobil Corp's dividend yield was 3.59%, Chevron Corp's 3.05%; Exxon Mobil Corp's rolling price-to-earnings ratio was 16.18 times, Chevron Corp's 16.75 times. The two indicators are relatively close.
按过去12个月的自由现金流算，雪佛龙的P/FCF为约13倍，高于埃克森美孚的10倍，表明埃克森美孚可能相对被低估了。
Based on free cash flow over the past 12 months, Chevron Corp's P/FCF is about 13 times, which is 10 times higher than Exxon Mobil Corp's, suggesting that Exxon Mobil Corp may be relatively undervalued.
埃克森美孚回购力度更大，雪佛龙派息更壕
Exxon Mobil Corp buyback is stronger, Chevron Corp dividend is more trench.
回购方面，埃克森美孚CEO在Q1业绩会上表示，「公司向股东返还了58亿美元，其中约三分之二以股息形式，其余为股票回购，与之前的计划一致。我们此前在12月的公司计划更新中表示，预计将回购100亿美元的股票。这次，我们宣布增加回购计划，到2023年总计回购300亿美元。」
In terms of buybacks, Exxon Mobil Corp CEO said at the Q1 performance meeting that "the company returned US $5.8 billion to shareholders, of which about 2/3 was in the form of dividends and the rest was share buybacks, in line with previous plans." We previously said in a December update of the company's plan that we expected to buy back $10 billion of shares. This time, we announced an increase in the buyback plan.Total buybacks totaled $30 billion by 2023.」
雪佛龙未来的股票回购不太明确，目前来看数额远低于埃克森美孚的300亿美元。
Chevron Corp's future share buyback is not very clear, at present, the amount is far less than Exxon Mobil Corp's 30 billion US dollars.
在2021年二季度业绩报告发布时，雪佛龙宣布从2021年第三季度开始恢复股票回购，每年回购20-30亿美元规模雪佛龙股票。之后两次上调回购指引，今年3月在年度投资者会议上宣布将股票回购指引提高到每年50-100亿美元。一季度业绩会上，雪佛龙透露，将在今年年底前回购创纪录的100亿美元股票。
When the second-quarter earnings report of 2021 was released, Chevron Corp announced that stock buybacks would resume from the third quarter of 2021, with annual buybacks of $20 billion to $3 billion in Chevron Corp shares. The repurchase guidelines were then raised twice, and in March this year, at the annual investor meeting, it was announced that the share repurchase guidelines would be raised to $50-10 billion a year. First quarter results meetingChevron Corp revealed that he will buy back a record $10 billion of shares by the end of this year.。
股票分析师Bill Zettler表示，假设回购持续到2023年，雪佛龙的回购总额将达到175亿美元，而埃克森美孚为300亿美元。然而，在2022年第一季度，雪佛龙仅回购了13亿美元的股票。所以在回购层面，埃克森美孚更胜一筹。
Assuming the buyback lasts until 2023, Chevron Corp's total buyback will reach $17.5 billion, compared with Exxon Mobil Corp's $30 billion, said Bill Zettler, an equity analyst. In the first quarter of 2022, however, Chevron Corp bought back only $1.3 billion of shares.So at the buyback level, Exxon Mobil Corp is even better.
派息方面，雪佛龙过去5年股息金额及增幅均超过埃克森美孚。这两家公司都没有做出任何具体的派息承诺，只是说增加股息是公司政策的一部分。相对来说，雪佛龙的派息比埃克森美孚大方。
In terms of dividends, Chevron Corp has exceeded Exxon Mobil Corp in the amount and increase of dividends in the past five years. Neither company has made any specific dividend commitments, saying only that an increase in dividends is part of company policy. Relatively speaking, Chevron Corp's dividend payout is more generous than Exxon Mobil Corp.
股神偏爱雪佛龙，高盛看好埃克森美孚
The stock god is partial to Chevron Corp, Goldman Sachs Group is optimistic about Exxon Mobil Corp
股神巴菲特今年尤其看好石油股，除了建仓西方石油之外，还大手笔增持雪佛龙，这两只石油股均在股神的前十大重仓股之列，合共占投资组合的9.26%。
Buffett, the god of stocks, is particularly optimistic about oil stocks this year. In addition to building positions in Western Oil, he has also made a big increase in his holdings of Chevron Corp. These two oil stocks are among the top 10 heavy stocks of God, accounting for 9.26% of the investment portfolio.
伯克希尔2022年Q1前十大持仓股，资料来源：whalewisdom
Berkshire's top ten Q1 positions in 2022, source: whalewisdom
相比埃克森美孚，股神更偏爱雪佛龙。实际上，从去年第三季度开始，巴菲特就持续加仓雪佛龙，其中今年一季度加仓幅度最大。但对于埃克森美孚，自2014年四季度清仓之后，巴菲特就再也没有持有过该股。
Compared to ExxonMobil, the stock god prefers Chevron Corp. Actually,Buffett has continued to increase his position in Chevron Corp since the third quarter of last year, with the largest increase in the first quarter of this year. But for Exxon Mobil Corp, Buffett has not owned the stock since it was cleared in the fourth quarter of 2014.
伯克希尔对雪佛龙持仓变动，资料来源：whalewisdom
Berkshire's position change to Chevron Corp, source: whalewisdom
巴菲特曾在2021年伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会上表示，他认为继续拥有雪佛龙公司股票没有任何问题，并预计即使世界越来越多地转向可再生能源，雪佛龙公司未来仍将继续造福社会。
Buffett said at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting in 2021 that he did not see any problem in continuing to own Chevron Corp shares, and expected that even if the world turned more and more to renewable energy, Chevron Corp will continue to benefit society in the future.
据了解，雪佛龙在生物燃料和碳捕获等领域取得进展，有望推动其能源业务转型。
It is understood that Chevron Corp has made progress in areas such as biofuels and carbon capture, which is expected to promote the transformation of his energy business.
近日，雪佛龙公司CEO迈克尔·沃思在一份声明中表示，公司计划重点降低其业务的碳强度，目标是引领低碳强度的石油、产品和天然气，并推出减少主要行业碳排放的新产品和解决方案。
Recently, Michael worth, CEO of Chevron Corp, said in a statement that the company plans to focus on reducing the carbon intensity of its business, with the goal of leading low-carbon-intensive oil, products and natural gas, and launching new products and solutions to reduce carbon emissions in major industries.
高盛则认为雪佛龙投资吸引力不如埃克森美孚，理由如下：
Goldman Sachs Group thinks that Chevron Corp is not as attractive as Exxon Mobil Corp for the following reasons:
「在 2022年第一季财报发布后，我们对雪佛龙的中性评级维持不变。一如之前所讨论的，虽然我们对能源股保持看多观点，并确认美国重点企业是能源类股的重要组成部分，但我们相信被评为买入的埃克森美孚的价值更具吸引力，总回报率为26%，而非中性评级雪佛龙的回报率6%。
此外，我们也强调，鉴于雪佛龙相对于埃克森美孚的下游业务较少，雪佛龙全球炼油能力为每天180万桶，而埃克森美孚为460万桶，炼油能力后者更具建设性；除了雪佛龙的相对炼油能力较少外，该公司的上游项目相对于埃克森美孚的优势也比较小，埃克森美孚提供了具有吸引力的成长机会，例如短期内在圭亚那，以及包括 Golden Pass 和 Coral FLNG 在内的液化天然气项目。」
"after the release of the first quarter of 2022, our neutral rating on Chevron Corp remained unchanged. As discussed earlier, although we maintain a bullish view on energy stocks and recognize that key US companies are an important part of energy stocks, we believeExxon Mobil Corp, who was rated as a buyer, has a more attractive value, with a total return of 26%, while Chevron Corp has a non-neutral rating of 6%.。
In addition, we also emphasize that in view of the fact thatChevron Corp has less downstream business than Exxon Mobil Corp.Chevron Corp's global refining capacity is 1.8 million barrels per day, while Exxon Mobil Corp's is 4.6 million barrels per day.Oil refining capacity the latter is more constructiveIn addition to Chevron Corp's relatively less oil refining capacityThe advantage of the company's upstream project over Exxon Mobil Corp is also relatively small.Exxon Mobil Corp offers attractive growth opportunities, such as in Guyana in the short term, as well as LNG projects including Golden Pass and Coral FLNG. "
