Introduction to this report:
With intelligence as its core competitiveness, Xiaopeng Motor is leading the country in full-stack self-research capabilities. Benefiting from the acceleration of the intelligent wave, it will launch next-generation platform-based products in 2023, and sales scale and profitability are expected to increase.
Summary:
First coverage, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating. The company focuses on intelligent labeling, and its products have been recognized by the market. As models expand and product strength continues to improve, it is expected that the company's sales volume and revenue scale will continue to break through. We expect the company's sales revenue per share in 2022-2024 to be 25.15/44.74/72.48 yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 105%/78%/62%, respectively. Combining the company's technology, product strength and new product planning, the company was rated as an increase in holdings.
The brand positioning is clear, and the deployment of new production capacity and new channels is accelerated. The core label of the company's brand is intelligent, with a target of 150,000 to 400,000 yuan for the high-end passenger car market. The customer base is young people who prefer a sense of technology. At present, they have created four products. Production capacity allocation has been accelerated across the board, with a double shift production capacity of 400,000 vehicles expected in 2022. At the same time, the construction of marketing channels and energy replenishment networks will be actively promoted. The company planned overseas markets earlier, the European market began an accelerated layout, and P5 has already started pre-orders in Shikoku.
The wave of intelligence is coming, and forward-looking layout and intelligent layout will build core competitiveness. The trend of intelligence has arrived, the technology allocation of various car companies has further accelerated, and intelligence will become a key area of focus for car companies. In terms of intelligence, the company insists on full-stack self-research, the technical level continues to improve, and its product software and hardware capabilities are leading in China. It has a first-mover advantage in terms of data accumulation, and it is expected that in the future, stronger features such as urban NGP will be introduced ahead of the industry to enhance the technological attributes of the product. At present, the software installation rate continues to increase, software charges have been realized. The total sales volume of car companies ranks first among the new domestic car builders, and the product market recognition is high.
New technology+new products help launch models, and new platforms are expected to reduce costs and increase efficiency to achieve new growth. The company will launch a more powerful new model, the G9, built on an 800V high-voltage SiC platform and equipped with a next-generation X-EEA 3.0 electronic architecture. The software and hardware capabilities will be fully upgraded. It will be equipped with XPILOT 4.0 and Xmart OS 4.0 systems, and product functionality will be greatly improved. Furthermore, the company will launch a third-generation model platform in 2023. The new platform achieves a higher level of intelligence through a more integrated architecture, while effectively reducing costs and greatly increasing gross margin levels, further enhancing enterprise profitability. It is expected that corporate profits will improve and usher in new growth.
Risk warning: There is a shortage of upstream chips, the rise in raw material prices exceeds expectations, technology implementation falls short of expectations, and the market performance of new products falls short of expectations.