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美股中概股狂欢、港股集体反攻!大市已否极泰来?

US stocks and China securities are in a frenzy, and Hong Kong stocks are fighting back collectively! Has the big market come to an end?

富途資訊 ·  May 27, 2022 12:10

The market, which has been in the doldrums for a long time, seems to have taken a turn for the better.

Overnight (May 26), US stocks of Chinese stocks soared collectively, and the concept plate of popular Chinese stocks of Futuo Niuniu rose more than 9%.

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Among the constituent stocks, Alibaba and Baidu, Inc. rose more than 14%, TAL Education Group rose more than 12%, Pinduoduo and iQIYI, Inc. rose more than 9%, RLX Technology Inc., Bilibili Inc. and Tencent Music rose more than 8%.

New energy vehicles collectively went higher, NIO Inc. rose by more than 9%, ideal by nearly 8%, and XPeng Inc. by more than 7%.

The remaining temperature of the carnival of US-listed stocks also seems to continue to this day, driving the Hong Kong stock market higher, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising nearly 5% at one point. By midday, the Hang Seng Index was up 2.77% and the Hang Seng Technology Index was up 3.73%.

Among the top stocks, BABA rose more than 12%, Baidu, Inc. rose more than 15%, Meituan and JD.com rose more than 4%, and Tencent rose more than 2%.

The cycle of raising interest rates is coming to an end?

Global markets have experienced a sharp correction during the Fed rate hike cycle. Year-to-date, the s & p 500 is down 14%, the Dow is down more than 10%, and the Nasdaq is down more than 24%.

And at a time when most investors believe that US stocks are about to fall into a "bear market zone" (down 20 per cent from their peak), a Fed minute seems to have stopped the market from falling further.

Some analysts predict that the Fed may end the "water collection" ahead of time, boosting the market's appetite for venture capital.Fed researchers raised inflation expectations, according to the minutes of the May FOMC meeting. They estimate that the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) will rise 4.3 per cent in 2022, but cut forecasts to 2.5 per cent in 2023 and 2.1 per cent in 2024. Many participants expect wage pressures to remain high for some time. This suggests that the inflation forecasts submitted by Fed officials for next month's updated quarterly economic outlook will be revised higher.

The commentary believes that the above expected adjustment is of great significance. Cignarell estimationIf the above PCE expectations are accurateIt suggests that three more 50 basis point rate increases by the Fed would end the current tightening cycle and pave the way for a big counterattack on risky assets in the second half of the year.

Better-than-expected results to ease market worries?

Market analysis, with BABA, Baidu, Inc., iQIYI, Inc. better-than-expected results announced, indicating that Chinese stocks may be bottoming out.

BABA's financial report shows that the fourth quarter ended on March 31st. Total income was 204.05 billion yuan, up 9% from the same period last year, exceeding market expectations of 200.664 billion yuan; adjusted net profit was 19.799 billion yuan, down 24% from the same period last year, exceeding market expectations of 18.667 billion yuan; and adjusted income per ADS was 7.95 yuan, compared with 10.32 yuan in the same period last year. Among them, Aliyun's annual income before and after offsetting cross-division transactions was 100.18 billion yuan and 74.568 billion yuan respectively.The year achieved its first annual profit in 13 years.

In addition, in the quarter ended March 31, 2022,BABA bought back about 17.8 million ADS at a price of about $2 billion under the share buyback plan.

Baidu, Inc. Q1 revenue of 28.411 billion yuan, an increase of 1% over the same period last year, the market estimate of 27.86 billion yuan; adjusted net profit of 3.879 billion yuan, also exceeded market expectations; adjusted profit of 11.22 yuan per ADS. In March, Baidu, Inc. App's MAU grew 13 per cent year-on-year to 632 million, and the number of daily login users reached 83 per cent.

IQIYI, Inc. 's revenue in the first quarter was 7.3 billion yuan, of which revenue from member services was 4.5 billion yuan, an increase of 4% over the same period last year. Based on the financial indicators of non-American general accounting standards (non-GAAP), the operating profit was 330 million yuan, and the profit margin was 4%, which increased for three consecutive quarters and made a quarterly profit for the first time. The net profit of non-GAAP belonging to iQIYI, Inc. in the first quarter was 160 million yuan, compared with a net loss of 1 billion yuan in the same period last year, making a quarterly profit for the first time and exceeding the market's expected net loss of 670 million yuan.

Due to worries about the uncertain policy environment, increased downward pressure on the economy, and the risk of pre-withdrawal in overseas markets, Chinese-listed stocks generally suffered excessive selling in the early stage, resulting in a sharp correction in share prices.After this kind of irrational adjustment, the strong financial results of the above companies sent a positive signal, making Chinese stocks attract the attention of bottoming funds.Previously, a number of mainstream foreign institutions have indicated that they continue to be optimistic about the long-term investment value of the Chinese market.

Positive domestic policies and steady progress in resuming work and production

A positive policy wind has been released in a series of meetings and speeches this month. On May 13, the General Office of the State Council issued an article saying that it is necessary to set up a "red light" and a "green light" to promote the healthy development of the platform economy and drive more employment.

The party committee of the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission pointed out in an article in Qiushi on the 16th that it combines preventing the barbaric growth of capital with promoting the orderly development of capital, setting a "traffic light" for capital in the financial field, completing the special rectification and reform of the platform economy, and implementing regular supervision to promote the healthy development of the platform economy.

At the special consultation on "promoting the sustained and healthy Development of the Digital economy" held subsequently by the CPPCC National Committee, Liu he delivered a major speech, expressing support for the sustained and healthy development of the platform economy, the private economy, and the listing of digital enterprises in domestic and foreign capital markets. It also led to the rise of US-listed Chinese stocks on the same day.

Compared with the intensive and penetrating regulation of the platform economy in 2021Since the beginning of this year, regular supervision has been emphasized, which requires standardization, transparency and predictability, with healthy development as the main line.It also means that a more stable regulatory attitude will help boost market confidence.

Pudong Bank International said that the platform economic rectification will end in stages, and the implementation of regular supervision will further reduce uncertainty."promoting the healthy development of platform economy" reflects the nature of regulators. Considering the current market environment of stable economy and stable employment, it is particularly important to promote the healthy development of platform economy.It is expected to allay market doubts and help market expectations stabilize, thus promoting the repair of plate valuations.

In addition, with the improvement of the situation of epidemic prevention and control, enterprises are also making steady progress in resuming work and production. According to official sources, Shanghai is promoting the resumption of work and production by categories and stages, and according to the recovery of traffic in the city, workers can commute by public transport. The Shanghai Health and Health Commission also said that after June 1, adjustments will be made according to the epidemic situation in Shanghai.

The situation of resuming work and production is improving and speeding up the pace of economic recovery will help protect the economic fundamentals in the second half of the year and will certainly inject confidence into the stock market.

Us Secretary of State Lincoln said: the United States is determined to avoid a "new cold war" with China.

At 10:00 local time on May 26th, US Secretary of State Lincoln delivered a speech on China policy at George Washington University. According to the World wide Web,In his speech, Lincoln said that the United States is determined to avoid a "new cold war" with China.

The speech was originally scheduled for May 5, but had to be postponed because Brynn was infected with COVID-19. Bloomberg previously reported that the speech was intended to pave the way for Biden's trip to Asia, but now it is after Biden ends his visit to South Korea and Japan. About this speech.Agence France-Presse quoted Lincoln's aides as saying on the 24th that this would be the most comprehensive statement yet of the US government's policy towards China, a rising Asian power.

"We do not seek to prevent China from playing its role as a great power, nor does it prevent China-or any country-from developing its economy or promoting the interests of its people," he added.

However, Lincoln also claimed that the United States will defend the so-called "global order, including international law and agreements," and "enable all countries, including the United States and China, to coexist and cooperate."

In addition, Brin Lincoln announced that the US State Department will set up a "China Group" (China House) to coordinate US policy toward China.

09.pngWhen the market is in the doldrums, a series of "bullish" news continue to emerge.

Is the current market rebounding or reversing?

Has market sentiment been repaired?

You are welcome to express your views in the comment area.

Edit / isaac, new

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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