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Investors in China Merchants Securities (SHSE:600999) have unfortunately lost 36% over the last year

Simply Wall St ·  May 26, 2022 08:36

The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Unfortunately the China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600999) share price slid 37% over twelve months. That's well below the market decline of 17%. However, the longer term returns haven't been so bad, with the stock down 18% in the last three years. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 20% in the last 90 days. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 15% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

View our latest analysis for China Merchants Securities

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate twelve months during which the China Merchants Securities share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 0.3%. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.

It seems quite likely that the market was expecting higher growth from the stock. But other metrics might shed some light on why the share price is down.

The fact that the dividend has fallen is probably weighing on the share price, as it implies some form of business stress.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

SHSE:600999 Earnings and Revenue Growth May 26th 2022

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 17% in the twelve months, China Merchants Securities shareholders did even worse, losing 36% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 0.2% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with China Merchants Securities (including 1 which is significant) .

But note: China Merchants Securities may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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