Edited from open source securities: "the RMB exchange rate has reversed greatly, and the opportunity for A-share rebound has come."
On the evening of August 24, the "counter-cyclical factor" restarted, and the RMB soared at night, breaking 6.82,6.81 one after another, and at 23:00 it broke through the 6.8 integer mark, up 914 points on the day. As a result, on August 27, A shares, which have been hovering recently, finally began to rebound, and as of press time, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.77%.
1. The opportunity for A-share rebound has come.
Recently, A shares have been hovering at a low level. Although the bottom area has long been confirmed, but because there is no volume, so it has been grinding the bottom. During this period, both ups and downs are not volume, the reason is very simple, that is, the market can not find a reason to change the market rebound. But on Friday, the countercyclical factor that helped the renminbi appreciate sharply against the dollar in 2017 officially announced a comeback, and the renminbi rose sharply in the onshore and offshore markets. The offshore RMB soared 900 points to more than 6.80 yuan. In other words, the short positions of RMB collectively exploded on that day, and the opportunity for A shares to rebound came.
2. the sharp rise of offshore RMB affects A shares.
What on earth is a counter-periodic factor?According to the central bank's previous statement, when calculating the counter-cyclical factor, the quotation bank can first eliminate the influence of the basket currency change from the fluctuation of the previous day's closing price compared with the intermediate price, so as to obtain the exchange rate change which mainly reflects the market supply and demand. Then the 'counter-cyclical factor' is obtained by adjusting the counter-cyclical coefficient.
What is the function of introducing counter-periodic factors?In fact, the introduction of counter-cyclical factors by the central bank has also created a new way to intervene in the foreign exchange market. Open source securities believe that with the effect of counter-cyclical factors on the "market supply and demand factors" in the intermediate price formula, the central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market has also entered a new stage.
Before the introduction of counter-cyclical factors, the depreciation power of RMB brought about by market supply and demand had nothing more than two exports: first, the central bank consumed foreign exchange reserves to intervene in foreign exchange and directly managed market supply and demand; second, it offset the power of keeping the exchange rate stable against a basket of currencies in the midpoint formula of RMB against the US dollar, resulting in the depreciation of the CFETS RMB exchange rate index. After the introduction of counter-cyclical factor, the central bank has another tool to manage the devaluation power of RMB brought by market supply and demand, that is, it is discounted and filtered by counter-cyclical coefficient as mentioned earlier.
Generally speaking, the appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the return of funds to the Chinese market, reduce the carry trade with other currencies, increase the increase of market funds, and facilitate the rebound of the stock market.With the implementation of this counter-cyclical factor, the future trend of A shares is worth looking forward to! After all, A-share valuation is historically low, extremely attractive, risky capital, foreign capital continue to copy the bottom, MSCI to increase the proportion of A-share allocation, this series of factors may indicate that A-share has a better rising wave. The A-share bulls have been holding back for a long time, and there is no reason to vent their emotions, so this reversal of the RMB is likely to turn into a retaliatory rebound in A-shares.
3. Future operationBe optimistic about the sectors related to the positive appreciation of the RMB
In the future operation, since the RMB exchange rate has reversed, it is impossible for An equity week not to perform. In particular, the sectors related to the positive appreciation of the RMB will be represented by the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. Especially banks, real estate, airlines, import trade, non-ferrous resources and so on, which are related to RMB-denominated assets. The rise in the exchange rate has helped to stabilize market expectations, dashed the hopes of bears suffering from "beauty phobia" and is crucial to restoring A-share sentiment.
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