Global macro

• The futures of the three major US stock indexes fell slightly before Wednesday's trading.

• European stock markets are mixed.

• Heavy! The minutes of the Fed meeting will be released in the early hours of Thursday.

The Fed will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting on Wednesday (early Thursday morning Beijing time). Investors are waiting for the FOMC minutes to provide more details on the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) plan to learn more about the Fed's deliberations on monetary tightening and officials' views on the recent continued decline in US stocks and recession.

• The New York Fed's forecast shrinking roadmap: it will last for three years and will be reduced to $5.9 trillion.

On Tuesday, the New York Fed released its latest forecast based on the contraction plan announced by the Fed on May 4: if Fed policy makers follow the guidelines they issued this month, the size of the Fed's portfolio could fall to $5.9 trillion by mid-2025. It also indicates that the Fed's total holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are expected to fall by about $2.5 trillion over the next three years. At that time, the Fed may suspend the pace of retrenchment in order to maintain an adequate level of bank reserves.

• Inflation is no longer the biggest concern? The market returns to the "stock decline and debt rise" model, which may indicate that the recession is taking its place.

Over the past two weeks, the market seems to be gradually returning from the year's "double kill" scenario to the more traditional "stock fall and debt rise" model, after the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 3.1 per cent earlier this month. this change is evident. Strategists believe that the return to the "seesaw effect" of bonds and equities is an acknowledgment of the deterioration of current financial conditions, and that the Fed's efforts to rein in prices will plunge the world into recession.

• Deutsche Bank: if stagflation were repeated in the 1970s, it would be a "real destruction of wealth"

In a report released on Tuesday, Deutsche Bank summarized the performance of a range of assets during stagflation in the 1970s. Analysts point out that if inflation persists for a decade, what can be expected for investors in traditional financial assets such as bonds and stocks is "a real destruction of wealth".

• Barclays: global mutual fund investors may sell another $350 billion of shares this year

Global mutual fund investors are likely to sell a further $350 billion worth of shares this year because of the unstable macro environment and tighter monetary policy and heightened fears of a recession, Barclays said on Wednesday. Equity outflows accounted for an average of 2.6 per cent of mutual fund asset management (AUM) during previous big sell-offs, such as the 2008-09 financial crisis, compared with 0.3 per cent so far this year, meaning another $350 billion of shares will be sold for the rest of the year unless fears of a recession abate, says Barclays.

• Morgan Stanley short Wilson: us stocks will accelerate their decline this summer, with the S & P 500s falling another 16%

Michael Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, warned that the market could experience a sharper sell-off this summer as risks to US economic growth were just emerging, with the S & P 500s likely to dip to 3400 in the next three months.

• Ackerman, a well-known hedge fund manager, talks about "controlling inflation": either the Fed is more aggressive, or the market collapses.

Bill Ackman, a prominent hedge fund manager and founder of Pershing Square Capital, said that surging inflation will dissipate only if the Fed takes more aggressive action or the market sell-off turns into a full-blown collapse. Ackman attributed the 2022 market correction to a lack of investor confidence in the Fed's ability to contain 40-year high inflation. If the Fed does not do its job, the market will do it on its behalf. Ackman pointed out that investors will now cheer for the Fed to raise interest rates faster. "once investors are convinced that the days of runaway inflation are over, the market will soar. I hope the Fed will make the right decision. "

• The "big short" prototype warns of a repeat of the 2008 crisis: it's like watching a plane crash

Michael Burley, the archetypal character of the movie "the Big short" who accurately predicted the subprime crisis in the mid-2000s, sent a terrible warning to his fans on Twitter on Tuesday: a crisis like the one in 2008 could be repeated. "as I said in 2008, it was like watching a plane crash," Burley wrote. It hurts, it's not funny, and I'm not laughing. "

• Hashimizu Dario: cash and stocks are rubbish, and investing in real estate is a better choice.

Dario, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, again urged investors to stay away from cash and stock markets at a time of high inflation at the Davos Economic Forum on Tuesday. "real return assets" such as real estate may be a better choice. When asked whether the Fed can effectively reduce demand without hurting the economy, he replied in the negative, saying: "[the Fed] will not be able to raise interest rates high enough to provide investors with adequate real returns." So if you take into account rising interest rates, such as 3% or 4%, it will not be enough to catch up with inflation. "

• The ruble is too strong to threaten the economy, and the Russian central bank once again announces an emergency interest rate meeting.

On Wednesday, local time, the Russian central bank announced that it would hold an emergency interest rate meeting on May 26, Moscow time, and the interest rate resolution would be announced at 10:30 Moscow time (15:30 Beijing time). Of the 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, the Russian rouble is the best performing currency in the world so far in 2022, with the largest increase among major currencies.

• Oil prices rise, US gasoline inventories hit a seasonal low in eight years

Crude oil prices rose again after API data showed that US demand remained strong ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, despite record gasoline prices. Although crude oil inventories rose by 600000 barrels last week, gasoline inventories are at their lowest level since 2014, at the beginning of the peak of gasoline demand in US stocks, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Later today, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official inventory data.

Hot news

• Musk has entered the catering industry and will open Tesla, Inc. restaurant in Hollywood.

According to reports,$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $Documents have been submitted to the city of Los Angeles on May 19th local time to apply for a 24-hour restaurant at 7001 Santa Monica Avenue in Hollywood. The 9300-square-foot restaurant includes a drive-in cinema and a supercharging station. Tesla, Inc. did not provide further details about the opening date or menu of the restaurant. Musk said in February that he planned to start future-style restaurants and drive-ins around Hollywood.

• Alphabet Inc-CL COnce again postpone the release of the first collapsible smartphone

According to TheElec, $Alphabet Inc-CL C-C (GOOG.US) $once again delayed the release of its first collapsible smartphone, but did not say when. The company had planned to release the phone at the end of last year.

• Pfizer Inc: patented drugs will be sold at cost in low-income countries, including COVID-19 's oral medicine.

On Wednesday local time, the pharmaceutical giant$Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) $It announced that it would sell all its patented drugs to 45 of the world's poorest countries at cost, including Paxlovid, an oral drug used to treat COVID-19, and Ibrance, a best-selling breast cancer drug. According to Pfizer Inc, the plan includes 23 patented drugs and vaccines wholly owned by the company for the treatment of infectious diseases, certain cancers and rare diseases. In addition to Paxlovid and Ibrance, the list also includes the pneumonia vaccine Prevnar 13, the rheumatoid arthritis drug Xeljanz and the cancer drugs Xalkori and Inlyta. In addition, the COVID-19 vaccine "Comirnaty" developed by Pfizer Inc and German pharmaceutical company BioNTech SE is also on the list.

• The retailer Nordstrom rose more than 5% before trading and made a net profit of $20 million in the first quarter.

Retailer$Nordstrom (JWN.US) $It rose more than 5% to $22.8 in pre-market trading. Nordstrom reported a net profit of $20 million and a profit of $166 million in the first quarter of 2022, compared with a loss of $166 million in the same period last year. Q1 had total revenue of $3.569 billion, compared with analysts' estimates of $3.29 billion. Nordstrom's first-quarter net sales rose 18.7%, compared with analysts' expectations of 9.3%. The adjusted loss per share in the first quarter was $0.06. Nordstrom expects full-year revenue growth of 6 per cent, up from 5 per cent, compared with a previous forecast of 5 per cent. Full-year adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $3.2-$3.50, up from $3.15-$3.50 previously.

• Snap Inc "flash collapse", Twitter shareholders' meeting today "Alexander"?

Wednesday local time$Twitter (TWTR.US) $With the upcoming shareholders' meeting, shareholders will be eager to hear management comments on whether the company's advertising revenue will be affected like Snap Inc in the next quarter after Snap Inc downgraded his performance guidance. This will be particularly important when there is uncertainty about Mr Musk's acquisition. It is reported that the company plans to hold a special meeting of shareholders later to vote on Musk's acquisition, but it has not been confirmed.

• Amazon.Com Inc is about to hold a shareholders' meeting, facing a record challenge.

$Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN.US) $It will face the challenge of 14 investor resolutions at its annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday, the largest number in the retail and cloud computing giant's history, with about 10 of them relating to workers' rights and other "social" issues. for example, companies are required to report on the health and safety of workers, or the treatment of warehouse workers.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Most of the hot Chinese stocks rose before the session.

• Zhihu Inc. 's pre-market profit rose by 6% to 340 million yuan, an increase of 23.1% over the same period last year.

Before the US stock market opened on Wednesday.$Zhihu Inc. (ZH.US) $Announced first-quarter results, Q1 revenue of 743.2 million yuan, compared with 478.3 million yuan in the same period last year, market expectations of 722 million yuan; gross profit of 335.5 million yuan, an increase of 23.1% over the same period last year; the average number of monthly paid members was 6.9 million, an increase of 72.8% over the same period last year; it is proposed to buy back up to $100m of shares in the next 12 months. After the release of the results, Zhihu Inc. US stocks rose in front of the market, expanding to 6 per cent as of 18:33 Beijing time.

• Was all Sohu.com Ltd defrauded? Zhang Chaoyang emergency response: the total loss is less than 50,000 yuan

For today's rumors. "$Sohu.com Ltd (SOHU.US) $All employees suffer from wage subsidy fraud, "Sohu.com Ltd CEO Zhang Chaoyang responded in Weibo Corp. The matter is not as serious as people think. He said that the cause of the incident was that the internal email password of an employee in Sohu.com Ltd was stolen and the thief pretended to be the finance department to send a letter to the employee. After the company found out, the technical department urgently dealt with it, and the total capital loss was less than 50,000 yuan.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

American Macro Calendar reminder:

May twenty _ fifth

20:30 monthly rate of US durable goods orders in April

EIA crude Oil inventory for the week from 22:30 to 20 May

May 26th

02:00 Fed FOMC releases minutes of May Monetary Policy meeting