share_log

华尔街如何评估本轮科技股杀跌?

How does Wall Street evaluate this round of tech stock declines?

Wind ·  May 25, 2022 17:20

Source: wind

Recently, technology stocks have fallen, which has hit investors in growth stocks. Interestingly, however, Wall Street remains optimistic about the technology sector in public, saying that this round of slump in technology stocks will not cause a broad market crisis.

Since the beginning of the year, the Nasdaq 100 index is down 26%. So far, Netflix's share price has plummeted nearly 69%, while technology giant Amazon.Com Inc's share price has fallen more than 35%. The world's largest technology companies fell more than $1tn in just three trading days after the Fed raised interest rates. The technology growth sector is pricing for future interest rate hikes by central banks such as the Federal Reserve to control inflation.

The Fed said it would not hesitate to raise interest rates until inflation fell to a healthy level, partly contributing to the massive withdrawal of capital from technology stocks.

High-growth technology stocks are widely thought to be overvalued at the market peak in the second half of 2021, and some commentators have even expressed concern about the collapse of technology stocks similar to the bursting of the "dotcom bubble" in 1999 / 2000.

Ralph Hamers, chief executive of UBS, told the media at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Monday: "obviously, there is a question is what the exact market value of some of these models should be. The basic business model is a real business model, not only now, but also in the future. "

Ralph Hamers also said, "whether in consumer services, financial services or other areas, I do think that technology business models, that is, digital business models, are still correct because they are real business models. "

While some analysts say sentiment in the technology industry is at its worst since the dotcom bubble as rising interest rates force companies to make profits faster, they also stress that investors still have long-term opportunities.

Ralph Hamers added: "this is different from 20 years ago [the dotcom bubble]. Some of our models are just paper models, not real ones. Over the past 20 years, it has been possible to show that real changes are taking place in areas such as retail and finance, and this trend will not stop because of what we are seeing now. "

Axel Lehmann, chairman of Credit Suisse, expressed a similar view over the same period, saying that despite the temporary "reshuffle" of technology stocks, investors should maintain a long-term view because many companies in the industry are still "sound". "basically, valuations have fallen in all stock markets, but the profits of these companies are still there, so we are seeing a bit of a shock," he said. While similar to the dotcom bubble, basic trends are now more supportive. "

Axel Lehmann also said, "many companies may disappear, but we should not think that basic trends will disappear, technology and digitization will be important, and new business models as business leaders need to pay great attention to key topics. "

David Rubenstein, a billionaire investor and co-founder of private equity firm Carlyle, also said on Monday that the market was "overreacting" despite the Fed's efforts to manage expectations.

"during the crashes of 1999, 2000 and 2001, Internet companies had no revenue and no profits," David Rubenstein said. In some cases, they have nothing but business plans, and these companies should not go public, let alone get any capital. Now, a company like Netflix with 250 million users may not be as valuable in the market as it was a few months ago, but in my opinion, it is certainly worth more than the current deal. ""

David Rubenstein added that the market was overreacting and, as usual, provided a buying opportunity for investors. "many companies whose value has declined recently are still great companies, and perhaps the value has been overreacted by the market," he said. I think there are some great acquisitions there, and I don't think this is the case in 1999 or 2000 at all. "

Although the share price has fallen sharply so far this year, Jane Fraser, Citigroup Inc's chief executive, pointed out at a forum in Davos on Monday that from the Wall Street bank's point of view, the sell-off in the US stock market was "very orderly" among investors. While the technology sell-off is not as disorderly as it was 20 years ago, Citi has seen changes in the system and asset allocation.

Jane Fraser stressed that fixed income issuance by companies and sovereign countries remained "quite constructive" and that market indicators suggested that the recent downturn was more likely to be a "necessary adjustment" than a large-scale collapse. In addition, there will be some pressure on commodities and high-yield bonds, but the overall market is not yet ready for a big collapse.

Edit / Corrine

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment