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观点 | 集运行情或将复制煤炭行情,有望迎来二次起飞

Opinion | The concentration operation may replicate the coal market and is expected to usher in a second take-off

中信建投證券研究 ·  May 25, 2022 11:56

Source: CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD study

The worst time for gathering and transportation has passed, freight rates have bottomed out during the year, and the two-month negative epidemic has passed.Freight rates on the South American line have begun to rise, and some shipping companies have increased on the European line. The US route continues to be fully loaded and the freight rate is high and stable, and the SCFI US-West route has increased by 1.19% and 0.39% month-on-month for two consecutive weeks; on the European line, port congestion has intensified and superimposed cargo volume has continued to recover due to the hurricane weather in Hamburg, Germany, the Netherlands, and other ports. Yangming and other shipping companies have announced an increase in European freight rates from June, about $250 for every 20-foot container and $500 for every 40-foot container.

After the unsealing of the epidemic in Shanghai, there will be a big wave of shipments, and freight rates will rise again.Superimposed into the third quarter of the traditional peak season, American freight rates are expected to hit an all-time high. According to Drury's latest report, as many as 260000 TEU of exports were not shipped from Shanghai in April under the control of the epidemic, equivalent to the capacity of 26 ships carrying 10, 000 TEU. Recently, the daily container throughput of Shanghai Port has reached 119000 TEU, returning to 90% of the normal, and the number of freight vehicles entering and leaving Shanghai through the provincial highway crossing has reached 78000, returning to 2/3 of the normal level. With the launch of the unsealing policy in Shanghai, there will be a wave of rush shipments of goods, which may become a turning point in the spot market, and a boost in volume is expected to be seen at the end of May and early June at the earliest. Stack has gradually entered the traditional peak season in the third quarter, and American freight rates are expected to reach an all-time high.

COSCO Shipping Holdings major shareholders began to increase their holdings by 15-3 billion, and the importance attached to the stock price ushered in a major reversal. Orient Overseas was included in the Hang Seng Index and was allocated a large amount of passive funds. Company valuations continue to be undervalued.

Collection: continue to maintain$COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919.HK) $$Orient Overseas (00316.HK) $And$SITC International Holdings (01308.HK) $"Buy" rating, recommended attention$Star Shipping (ZIM.US) $, Meissen.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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