Investment logic
The first stock of HPV vaccine on the HKEx, the market space for HPV vaccine is vast. Vaccination of HPV vaccine is currently a primary preventive measure to prevent cervical cancer. At present, the domestic listed manufacturers are limited, the market supply exceeds demand, and the penetration rate of domestic female HPV vaccine is relatively low. With the future domestic nine-valent HPV vaccine clinical research and development into a later stage, the industry permeability of HPV vaccine is expected to increase rapidly, driving the stock market space to accelerate mining. With the help of five differentiated and layered HPV vaccine layouts, the company can meet the needs of different groups at home and abroad. Among them, the company's nine-valent HPV vaccine has entered the clinical Ⅲ phase, and it is expected to submit an application for BLA in 2025, and the recombinant tetravalent HPV vaccine will use the company's new adjuvant. According to the company's prospectus, the adjuvant is comparable to GSK's AS04, and plans to submit an IND application in 2022.
"Recombinant protein + mRNA" technology two-wheel drive, COVID-19 vaccine can be expected in the future. The company currently distributes the recombinant protein technology path ReCOV and mRNA technology path R520A. The ReCOV COVID-19 vaccine has entered the Ⅱ / Ⅲ phase of the clinical trial and was approved by the China Drug Administration in May. R520A is the world's first lyophilized mRNA vaccine and plans to submit an IND application to the SFDA or other overseas authorities in 2022.
Innovative vaccine companies focusing on independent intellectual property rights have rich adjuvant research and development and vaccine pipeline layout. The company is one of the few companies in the world that have the ability to develop new adjuvants. Adjuvants can effectively improve the immunogenicity of vaccines, and independent and controllable adjuvant supply plays a positive role in vaccine supply and production cost control. Relying on the excellent new adjuvant platform, the company has assisted the development of many important vaccine candidates and built 12 product lines composed of high-value vaccines with independent intellectual property rights. it covers major infectious diseases such as cervical cancer, COVID-19, herpes zoster, adult tuberculosis, influenza and hand-foot-mouth disease. From 2019 to 2021, the company's R & D investment was 0.63,1.31 and 473 million yuan respectively, which continued to increase rapidly.
Investment suggestion
The company's vaccine innovation technology capability and pipeline layout are excellent, not considering the possible performance contribution of the company's COVID-19 vaccine, but only some conventional vaccine pipeline promotion and commercialization space such as HPV vaccine. We use the DCF valuation model and get a company value of HK $14.678 billion. Based on current share capital, the company is valued at HK $30.39 per share.
Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The risk of HPV vaccine immunization program change; the risk that the product research and development progress is not as expected or failure; the sales risk is not as expected; the commercial expansion risk is not as expected; intellectual property risk and so on.