Recently, US stocks have fallen endlessly, and there have been repeated calls for a slowdown or even a recession in the US economy. Wall Street banks have competed to downgrade their forecasts for the US economy and have adopted strategies to deal with the tightening of the financial environment caused by the Fed's anti-inflation situation.

Fed officials seem to smell this bad momentum and begin to appease the market and "prop up" the US economy.

Daley, chairman of the San Francisco Fed, said

The momentum of US economic growth is very strong, and it says the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates to a level where it no longer vigorously stimulates economic growth.And it won't cause a recession in the meantime.

It is believed that it can withstand the storm, that is, raising interest rates until prices return to stability.But it will still leave a lot of jobs for Americans, and the economy is expanding.

It is worth noting thatNot long ago, he said that the Fed is sure to raise interest rates in the coming months, which could plunge the US economy into a mild recession.

Similarly, this year's hawkish voting committee and St. Louis Fed chairman Brad reiterated his support for a 50 basis point one-off rate hike to fight inflation not long ago, rather than the 75 basis point hike previously proclaimed, and said there would be no recession this year and next.

The US economy may grow by 2.5% or 3% this year, higher than the expected growth rate of 1.75% to 2.0%.There will be no recession this year. A recession next year (2023) is not my opinion.

For now, it is still a good plan to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at a time, and we must pay attention to economic data. Efforts should be made to get the federal funds rate to 3.50% by the end of 2022.

The timing and management of policy changes are determined by Chairman Powell, and the sooner we raise interest rates and rein in inflation expectations, the more room we have to lower them.We may lower policy interest rates in 2023 and 2024 because we have brought inflation under control.

In 2022, George, chairman of the FOMC and chairman of the Kansas Federal Reserve, said

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates at around 2 per cent in August (50 basis points each in June and July), and evidence of a fall in inflation will guide future policy.

George was once seen as one of the Fed's most hawkish officials, but she has recently become more of a centrist.As a voting member in 2022, she does not think it is necessary to raise interest rates by more than previously implied.

And at a time when the interest rate hike cycle has just begun and the market is still seeking how many basis points the Fed is about to raise interest rates, overnight.Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostick has begun to release pigeons.

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in its next two meetings in June and July.Then the rate hike was suspended in September. But it depends on inflation. If inflation remains high, interest rates may rise by 25 or 50 basis points in September.

According to the market view, this can be seen as the Fed communicating with the market in advance, emphasizing that the rate hike will not affect the US economy, and that this round of interest rate hike will not be too long.

In fact, no matter how the Fed decides, as long as someone comes out to speak, there will always be a stir.

And the Fed does not always adhere to a single-minded position, which can be seen in the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Some netizens have made a picture of Powell's position since Q1 in 2021, which shows the great change in the attitude and position of the Federal Reserve.

The Fed's "art of expectation management" has long been well used, frequently on the eve of every interest rate meeting, constantly testing the emotional points of the market and guiding the market to accept changes in its monetary policy.

At 2: 00 a. M. Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve FOMC will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. I wonder what signal it will send this time.

Niu friends.

How is the Fed's "expectation management"?

Fed officials have recently released "dove" remarks one after another.

Will there be a "surprise" in the minutes of the monetary policy meeting in May?

Welcome to leave your wonderful insights in the comments area.