Core ideas:
The company's AI products are rapidly infiltrated and its revenue is growing rapidly. The company's AI software and hardware products have rapidly penetrated into the fields of urban management, transportation, finance and commerce, leading to rapid revenue growth. From 2018 to 2021, the company's revenue CAGR was 30.5%. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 1.08 billion yuan, an increase of 42.5% over the same period last year. In 2021, with the epidemic under control, the business revenue of artificial intelligence solutions based on integrated software and hardware products increased significantly.
The company goes deep into the core needs of the financial sector to create differentiation advantages. From identity authentication as a starting point, the company has gradually expanded to involve core financial businesses such as compliance, marketing and risk control. By the end of 2020, the company has served more than 400 financial institutions and 147000 bank outlets, and has greatly expanded in the field of smart cities.
The company's man-machine cooperative operating system has certain technical barriers. Since 2017, the company began to build a system based on standardized software in various industries-"man-machine collaborative operating system", including face recognition, cross-mirror tracking, living detection, structured analysis, OCR, speech recognition, natural language processing, knowledge graph, collaborative decision-making and other independent research and development technologies, with certain technical barriers.
Profit forecast and investment advice. Revenue for 22-24 is expected to be 1.49 billion yuan, 2.47 billion yuan and 3.65 billion yuan respectively, and revenue growth is expected to be 38.2%, 66.0% and 47.8%, respectively. The EPS in 22-24 is expected to be-0.92 yuan per share,-0.86 yuan per share and-0.37 yuan per share, respectively. In 21 years, the net profit of the company was-630 million yuan, and the loss decreased by 22.2% compared with the same period last year. The main source of the company's loss is the large investment in R & D (the 21-year R & D expenditure rate is 49.7%). We expect the company's R & D investment to remain high in the future, which is conducive to product competitiveness and rapid revenue growth, so we use PS for valuation. We choose Shang Tang, iFLYTEK and Green Deep pupil as comparable companies. Considering the scarcity and growth of A shares similar to AI companies, we give the company a valuation of 100.12 times PS in 22 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 20.1 yuan / share ~ 24.1 yuan / share.
Risk hint. The risk of downstream demand fluctuations and insufficient power for intelligent upgrading; the uncertainty of the transformation of R & D investment results; the risk of intensified competition in the industry.