Main points of investment
The company is actively transforming the negative materials of new energy. The traditional business of the graphitization processing company is steel castings, 19 years of group environmental management business assets, 21 years of joint venture with Bertre to enter the negative pole, and May 19, 22, the company announced that it intends to wholly acquire the graphitized assets of the controlling shareholder Tianquanfu saddle by issuing shares and paying cash. After the completion of this transaction The graphitization processing of lithium battery anode materials will become the company's new main business. In the past 21 years, the company was under pressure under the influence of the price increase of raw materials and the price-locking mechanism of orders, with operating income of 951 million yuan, an increase of 7.33% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 75 million yuan, down 24.41% from the same period last year.
There are broad prospects for artificial graphite negative electrodes, graphitized self-supply upgrading industry to create barriers to electric vehicles & driven by energy storage, the global demand for artificial graphite negative electrodes is expected to reach 1.75 million tons in 25 years and 42% CAGR in four years. Graphitization is the core process of artificial graphite, the pace of capacity release slows down under the background of double control of energy consumption, and the tight balance between supply and demand in 22 years is expected to become the bottleneck of short-term output. In the future, heavy asset graphitization will increase the manufacturing barriers of the negative electrode industry, and the graphitization self-supply rate will become the key to determine the profit and competitive advantage of negative enterprises, and establish the competitive pattern of the industry in the future.
Join hands with negative leader Bertre to enter the negative pole, graphitized assets and table guarantee that Betteri is the global negative leader, and its shipments have ranked first in the world for seven consecutive years, going deep into the global lithium battery leading supply chains such as Samsung, Ningde era and Panasonic, and leading in the profitability. in order to solve the graphitization supply problem, a joint venture with the company to build 100000 tons of artificial graphite is expected to put into production in the middle of the year and 50,000 tons in 23 years. The graphitized assets Tianquan Fusan customers that the company intends to acquire wholly cover the mainstream negative electrode manufacturers Beitri, Shanshan shares, Kaijin Energy, Xiang Fenghua, Zhongke Electric, etc., with a current graphitization production capacity of 20,000 tons, reaching 60,000 tons by the end of 22 and reaching 120000 tons after completion. If successful, it will become an important growth point of the company's performance. The graphitization capacity advantage of the company will have a strong synergistic effect with the strong market power of the negative pole leader Bertre, and the graphitization capacity will give priority to ensuring the production of the negative pole company, with the help of Bertre's technology and customer accumulation in the negative field. Successful stepping into the new energy track, the performance is expected to usher in a high increase.
The business of desulphurization and denitrification is growing steadily, and the carbon emission standards of the environmental protection industry of light gas turbines are becoming more and more stringent. It is estimated that the domestic market scale of desulphurization and denitrification industry will exceed 200 billion yuan in 25 years. Liaoning Metallurgical Design and Research Institute, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, has accumulated a deep accumulation, full qualification and good local reputation, with an income of 610 million yuan in 21 years, a net profit of 148 million yuan and a CAGR of 40% in 16-21. Performance is expected to grow steadily. Driven by the popularity of distributed natural gas power generation and the autonomous controllability of gas turbines, the domestic gas turbine has a bright future. The company is looking forward to laying out micro gas turbines below 50MW in 17 years, and is expected to build a complete distributed energy industry chain and create new performance growth points in the future. Large steel casting business is expected to 22 years of pricing mechanism to straighten out the smooth transmission of costs to drive profit repair.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a diversified enterprise actively transforming the new energy track, and the negative material opens the second growth curve. Due to the uncertainty in the promotion of graphitized asset consolidation, without considering the consolidation, we estimate that the company's return net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 1.94,2.96 and 416 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.63,0.96,1.35 yuan per share. According to the segment valuation method, we think that the reasonable market capitalization of negative material business is 2.8 billion yuan, that of environmental treatment business is 7.1 billion yuan, and that of foundry business is 1.5 billion yuan. To sum up, the company's target market capitalization is 11.4 billion yuan, corresponding to a 22-year PE of 59 times, corresponding to the current market capitalization has 50% room to rise, covering for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Global sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations; negative and graphitized capacity construction falls short of expectations; competition in the artificial graphite negative electrode industry intensifies; the risk of fixed growth and asset acquisitions failing.