Main points of investment
Events:
The company issued a major asset purchase report (draft). The underlying asset is 51% equity of Ningde Dongheng Machinery, with a transaction amount of 816 million yuan. The income / net profit of the target company in 2021 is 904 million yuan respectively.
The acquisition of Ningde Dongheng Machinery, cutting into the lithium battery module structure, the new product layout made a major breakthrough Dongheng Machinery main lithium battery precision structure, widely used in the shell structure of power battery module, such as side plate, end plate, etc., accounted for 93% of Ningde era income in 2021, and is a key supplier of power battery shell components for a key international customer in Ningde era. The company's products finally serve Tesla, Inc., Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen and other well-known automobile brands. Ningde Dongheng has won the certification of "CATL Outstanding supplier" and "CATL production contribution Award" for many times. After the completion of M & A, the two sides can produce synergy in customer development, resource maintenance, internal production efficiency and other aspects, which is conducive to further expand the product line and expand new business growth points.
The original major shareholder of the underlying company promised that the net profit in 2024 would be no less than 1.51,160,000,000 yuan.
If the target company promises to complete 30% of the excess part of the net profit during the commitment period, the performance reward shall not be higher than 20% of the consideration amount of this transaction.
The award of the equity incentive plan has been completed, demonstrating the confidence of the management; the current stock price relative to the grant price is 19% discount. In 2022, the equity incentive plan awarded a total of 1 million restricted shares at a price of 108 yuan (the current stock price is 87 yuan). It is awarded to a total of 148 directors, executives and business backbones of the target company.
New energy vehicle module / PACK equipment leader, the five factors driving performance acceleration are: 1) growth of new energy vehicles; 2) improvement of automation rate of equipment; 3) domestic substitution; 4) globalization; 5) breakthroughs in new products and new fields.
It is estimated that the domestic module / PACK line market will reach 11.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 19% from 2021 to 2025.
Growth drivers: 1) the demand for lithium power equipment continues to grow; 2) the module / PACK automation rate increases.
From domestic substitution to global supply. 1) the company's domestic market share is about 25% in 2020, and there is room for further improvement. 2) with the rapid growth of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States, it is estimated that the market size of European / American module / PACK line will reach 8.3 billion yuan in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will reach 20%. 67%.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's homing net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 27,000,000 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 281%, 73% and 36%, respectively; corresponding to 2022-2024, the PE is twice as much as 24-14-10, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk Tips:
The competition in the industry intensified, the expansion of new products fell short of expectations, and the progress of asset restructuring was not as expected.
