Zhitong Financial APP learned that the stake in Snowway Mining eventually fell at the JD.com auction. Northeast Securities saidThe scarcity of lithium resources has become the consensus of the industry, and the imagination space of lithium price opens up.Lithium as a "white oil" in the new era will usher in a major revaluation.。
It is reported that. On May 21, after five days and five nights, after 3448 bids, 3418 delays and a total of 970000 onlookers, the 54.2857% stake in Snowway Mining finally fell at JD.com 's auction. According to the auction transaction confirmation issued by Tan Wei, the buyer was Tan Wei, and the price of the subject matter reached 2.0002 billion yuan, which was nearly 600 times higher than the starting price of 3.3529 million yuan. There were previous media reports that Xiexin owned 99% of the debt and 42.89655% of Snowway Mining, and Xiexin related companies also participated in the auction, hoping to take the entire stake in Snowway Mining. The market speculates that Tan Wei is likely to be a related person of Xiexin, but Xiexin has not made a commitment to this statement.
The core asset of Snowe is the German site Nomba Lithium Mine, with resources of about 725000 tons of LCE.At present, the German site Nomba lithium mine has not yet obtained the mining right and has not carried out construction. It is reported that the term of validity of the exploration right will last until June 30, 2021, and the reservation of the exploration right has been carried out three times before, and the fourth reservation of the exploration right is continuing at present. In addition, due to the fact that there are illegal and illegal reasons in the stage of obtaining and replenishing mineral exploration certificates, the relevant administrative departments are organizing investigations. Therefore, the work of the reservation of exploration rights is slow and there is a risk of loss of mining rights. The actual purchase price of mining rights corresponding to this auction is more than 7000 yuan / ton LCE. Based on the auction price of 2 billion yuan, the purchase price of LCE per ton of this transaction is about 5080 yuan. However, considering the transaction commission of 60 million yuan and the debt corresponding to 54.3% equity of 870 million yuan, the actual auction cost is 2.93 billion yuan. If calculated at this cost, the purchase price per ton of LCE is about 7443 yuan, which is significantly higher than that of other lithium mines in the industry per ton LCE.
From 2021 to now, due to the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the profits of the industrial chain are gradually concentrated to the upstream resources, the gross profit margin of the battery link is 26.4% → 14.2%, the net profit rate is 13.4% → 4.0%, and the net profit of the battery link Q1 is 23% lower than the same period last year. In the middle reaches (such as cathode materials, etc.), the cost transmission is relatively smooth, and the overall gross profit margin is stable, but as the price goes up, the profit per ton may also be magnified. While the profitability of upstream resource products has greatly improved, benefiting from the upward price of lithium carbonate, the gross profit margin of lithium resources enterprises has been increased by 30.4% → 67.1%, and the net profit rate has been increased by 12.8% → 56.0%. As a result, the net profit has increased nearly 10 times compared with the same period last year.
Prior to this, Ganfeng Lithium, Ningde era, the American lithium industry for the Canadian millennium lithium industry once attracted much attention. Ganfeng Lithium quoted a price of C $353 million, and the Ningde era increased the price by 7%, but in the end, the American lithium industry offered US $400 million, which was about 35% higher than that of the Ningde era.
Overseas, Musk said in an interview on May 10 that he would buy mining companies in the future. Musk said he was building his own lithium refinery and had won the rights to a lithium mine in Nevada.
Northeast Securities said that in the context of high prices, the competition for lithium resources in the industrial chain is not weak but strong. Upstream enterprises such as Ganfeng and Shengxin continue to increase the distribution of lithium resources to enhance the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials. Tesla, Inc., LG, Ningde and other middle and lower reaches enterprises not only directly sign supply agreements with upstream mining enterprises, but also cooperate to build relevant lithium resources projects. Behind it is the industry's judgment on the normalization of the shortage of lithium resources.Furthermore, lithium resources may be the key factors that determine the final pattern of the industry.In this context, once there is a shortage in the industry, lithium prices may increase exponentially like oil prices, with downward safety margin thickening + upward elasticity fully opened.。
Related concept stocks:
Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ): since 2022, the company has signed a strategic framework agreement with Haixi Prefecture of Qinghai Province to increase the development capacity of lithium resources in Haixi Prefecture; made convertible bond investment in Shanghai Jujingui and can obtain its Songshugang Tantalum and Niobium Mine at maturity; the transaction of the acquired Goulamina lithium mine in Mali has been completed, and the capacity planning of the first phase of the Goulamina project has been updated to 506000 tons of lithium concentrate per year, and the capacity of the second phase has been updated to 831000 tons of lithium concentrate per year.
Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466.SZ): at present, the company's lithium salt production capacity is 44800 tons / year, and Quinana's first phase of 24000 tons of lithium hydroxide has entered the trial production stage, and supply agreements have been signed with SK, LG Chemical, Northvolt, etc. Suining Anju 20, 000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate project is gradually returning to the pace of construction, and is expected to be put into production and commissioning in the second half of the year.
Zijin Mining Group (601899.SH): on March 20th, the company's first lithium mining project, 3Q Salt Lake Lithium Construction Project in Argentina, was started, with an annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate expected to be completed and put into production by the end of 2023; at the same time, the company is laying out hard rock lithium cooperation and exploration in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The announcement shows that through this acquisition of Laguocuo Salt Lake, the company has more than 9 million tons of lithium carbonate reserves according to its rights and interests, and is expected to form an annual capacity of more than 50, 000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025.
Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ): subsidiary Oyino Mining has the mining right of Yilonggou in Jinchuan County, Sichuan Province, with proven reserves of 275400 tons of LCE. The project was put into production in 2019 and has an annual production capacity of 405000 tons of raw ore. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Zhiyuan lithium industry completed a new production line of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate and 10,000 tons of lithium hydroxide, with a total production capacity of 25000 tons of lithium carbonate and 15000 tons of lithium hydroxide, and entered a climbing period in 2021. Suining Shengxin has an annual output of 30,000 tons of lithium hydroxide, which was completed and put into production in January 2022. In addition, Indonesia's Shengxin is building an annual capacity of 60,000 tons of lithium salt in Indonesia's Central Sulawesi Province, which is expected to be completed and put into production in 2023.