Edited by CITIC: media Industry short Video Industry Research report: barbaric growth window closed, intensive cultivation to meet the Golden Age of monetization

Abstract: CITIC gives the short video industry a rating of "stronger than the big market". For independent short video platforms, it is recommended to pay attention to byte jumping, while for social platforms that push short video strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to Tencent and Weibo Corp.

There are various ways to realize short video in the era of mobile Internet.

According to the "China Mobile Limited Internet 2018 half-yearly report" released by QuestMobileIn June 2018, the number of short video users in China reached 505 million and is still growing rapidly, doubling from the same period last year.In terms of user duration, short videos now account for 8.8% of China Mobile Limited's total Internet use, compared with 2% in the same period last year.

User scale and growth of major short video platforms in recent years (10,000 people) Source: Ai Rui, CITIC Research Department

With the cooperation of the complete industry chain, short video has ushered in the golden era of monetization, and the essence of its business model is that content drives traffic and then realizes:That is, rely on free or subsidized content to attract user traffic, and then realize the traffic through advertising, e-commerce or C-end users to pay. According to QuestMobile, in June 2018, the industry-wide MAU reached 505 million; at present, the realization of short videos is mainly concentrated in advertising, e-commerce, live streaming, games and other channels.

Short video industry market space measurement data source: CITIC Research Department

The composition of the industrial chain is relatively complete and the pattern of the industry is gradually clear.

With the strong investment of capital, the short video industry accelerates the formation of a complete industrial chain with a clear division of labor and each performing its own duties.The upstream includes the content producer, the middle reaches is the MCN organization, and the downstream is the short video platform.. In addition, with the blowout of the industry, there are also third-party tool service roles, including flow monitoring, shooting work and so on.

Source of short video industry chain: CITIC Research Department

At present, a short video echelon has been formed: Kuaishou Technology takes the lead in Douyin, the headline is in the center, and Meipai is in close pursuit.The first echelon of short video industry has been established. In the first half of 2018, Kuaishou Technology's DAU was stable at 100 million, and the number of daily active users of Douyin exceeded 150 million, surpassing Kuaishou Technology. The second echelon of short video platform is composed of watermelons and volcanoes which belong to the same headline system. Watermelons have strong video media attributes and volcano small video has strong social attributes. The third echelon is the domestic earlier layout of short video platform Meitu and second shot, respectively backed by Meitu and Sina, as the new business growth pole of the two groups, with the same advance and retreat with ecology.

Source of data on the layout of the giants of the mainstream short video platforms: public data of each platform, collated by CITIC Research Department,

Grab market share in the future and accelerate clearing of inferior platforms.

The domestic short video traffic dividend has reached its peak, and the head platforms have gone out to sea one after another.It is expected that in the future, the head platform will generally carry on the exhibition industry all over the world. with the competition for the existing blank market becoming more and more intense, the wave of mergers and acquisitions of similar overseas software will come. CITIC believes that with the end of the barbaric growth period of the short video platform, the future algorithm will become one of the core competitiveness of the short video platform. In the context of strong supervision, the filtering ability of the algorithm will be as important as the recommendation distribution ability.

Data sources of algorithm characteristics and technology R & D orientation of major platforms: public data of each platform, collated by CITIC Research Department

Policy regulation continues to tighten, and the clearance of inferior platforms is accelerated.Since April, regulators have carried out centralized rectification of the Internet content field, and the short video industry has become the focus of rectification, and there has been a shutdown in late July. CITIC judged that as a hard-hit area of vulgarity, pornography, violence and infringement, strong supervision of short videos will become the norm in the future. Under this trend, the giants will continue to conduct self-censorship, and the short video industry may usher in a new wave of prosperity in a benign environment.

Photo: Bilibili official website

Investment advice and risk factors

CITIC believes that in view of the broad market space of the short video industry, the premium capacity of the head short video platform is expected to continue to improve in the future.Give the short video industry a rating of "better than the big market". For independent short video platforms, it is recommended to pay attention to byte jumping, while for social platforms that push short video strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to Tencent and Weibo Corp.

Risk factors:The growth rate of mobile Internet users is slowing down, mobile phone shipments are slowing down, competition for obtaining customers is intensified, user penetration and urban sinking are not as expected; overseas market expansion is not as expected; the optimization effect and value improvement of information flow is not as expected; content regulation risk.

For more wonderful content, please mark: the past period of the rich way research election.