share_log

牛股侦探 | 超级牛股可口可乐是怎样炼成的?

Bull Detective | How is the super bull stock Coca Cola made?

查理·芒格 ·  May 21, 2022 12:15

The content of this article comes from the fourth chapter of the Book of Poor Charlie.

In order to achieve the goal of changing from $2 million to $2 trillion, Coca-Cola Company needs to start from the psychological Lollapalooza effect: ① Design Company's products; ② Design Company's channels; ③ to take measures to maximize the company's profits; ④ reverse thinking to avoid what to do.

In fact, the core point of this article is to pay enough attention to the lollapalooza effect caused by a variety of psychological factors.When analyzing things, we should pay attention to the obviously critical psychological effects, and the psychological effects should be taken as the starting point to think about the problems, so as to form a set of methodology system to sort out the events.

Background: what is our mission?

In 1884, there was a new non-alcoholic beverage company in Atlanta called Coca-Cola Company, with an initial investment of $2 million; your goal is to make the company worth $2 trillion in 150 years. So, what should you do to achieve this goal?

First of all, we should first clarify the following big problems.

first,We can't create a $200m business by selling unbranded drinks, so we have to turn the company's name "Coca-Cola Company" into a strong brand protected by law.

Second,We have to start a business in Atlanta, then succeed in other parts of the United States, and then dominate the national market with new drinks. Only in this way can the value of the company reach $2 trillion. This requires that the company must produce a popular product, which must have some strong basic elements.

Next we're going to use math to figure out what our goals mean.

First, we have to calculate how big the target market is.

1. How many bottles of Coca-Cola Company can we sell in 2034?

① reasonably speculates that there will be about 8 billion beverage consumers worldwide by 2034; the main cost of each consumer's body is water, which requires 64 ounces of water a day, that is, eight eight-ounce bottles of drinks.

② if the company's new drinks and new markets imitate our new drinks can cater to consumers' tastes, then as long as they account for 25% of the world's total water intake, and Coca-Cola Company can account for half of the world's new markets, then by 2034, the company will be able to sell 2.92 trillion eight-ounce drinks.

80亿×8×25%×50%×365=29200。

2. How much money can we make in 2034?

Assuming a net profit of 4 cents per bottle of drink, we can make a profit of $117 billion.

29200 × 0.04 = 117 billion US dollars.

Is it reasonable to earn 4 cents per bottle of Coke?

Reasonable.

If ① can invent a popular drink, it is possible to earn 4 cents per bottle of Coke.

② in these 150 years, the currency will depreciate, while the real purchasing power of beverage consumers around the world will increase. Because spending less money can improve the consumer experience, consumers' water intake will rise rapidly.

③ at the same time, as technology advances, the company's production costs will fall in terms of general units of purchasing power.

④ in these 150 years, the purchasing power of beverages around the world will increase 40 times in dollar terms; backwards, in 1884, we only need 40 cents or 10 cents per bottle.

The second problem is to invent a product with universal appeal.

1. Using Lollapalooza effect to solve two problems.

There are two problems that need to be solved.

One is that in these 150 years, we must create a new beverage market so that it can account for 1% of the world's total water intake.

Second, we must manage well and be able to account for half of the market, while all our competitors add up to only the other half of the market.

Only a strong joint force can trigger the lollapalooza effect to solve the above problems.

2. How is the Lollapalooza effect born?

We must have a strong trademark. To have a strong trademark, we can understand the nature of the business psychologically.In essence, our business is to create and maintain conditioned reflexes. The trademark name and trademark image of "Coca-Cola Company" will play a stimulating role, and buying and drinking our drinks is the response we want.

How do people create and maintain conditioned reflexes? Psychology textbooks give two answers:

① through operable conditioned reflex

② uses classic conditioned reflexes.

We can use these two methods at the same time to arouse the conditioned response of consumers.

3. How to use operational conditioned reflex?

Operational conditioned reflex is easy to do, we just need to:

① maximizes the return of beverages to consumers.

② competitors will also build operational conditioned reflexes and weaken or even eliminate the effects caused by conditioned reflexes constructed by Coke, so Coke wants to minimize the impact of competitors.

So where exactly does operational conditioned reflex come from?

Nutritional value of calories and other costs in ① drinks

②, due to the influence of natural selection mentioned by Darwin, taste, taste and aroma can stimulate consumption under the influence of human nervous system.

③ stimulants, such as sugar and caffeine

The cool effect of ④ when people feel too hot, or the warmth effect when people feel too cold.

Correspondingly, we should do this:

① designed a drink suitable for cold storage.

② adds sugar and caffeine to the drink

③ uses continuous experiments to determine taste and other elements to make people the happiest when drinking Coke.

In order to prevent competitors from counteracting the operational reactions we have caused on consumers by establishing operational conditioning, we should make our drinks available to people all over the world in the shortest possible time.

4. How to use classical conditioned reflexes?

In Pavlov's conditioned reflex, association alone can produce a powerful effect, so we mustWith all kinds of beautiful and noble imagesTo stimulate the nervous system of consumers. Because as long as we can do this, our drinks will remind consumers of things they like or admire.

This strong Pavlov effect conditioned reflex costs a lot of money, especially a lot of advertising.Investing in advertising can help us win and maintain at least 50% of the market everywhere; in addition, production creates power, and our higher production can give us a great cost advantage in distribution channels.

In addition, the Pavlov effect triggered by association can help us choose the taste, taste and aroma of our new drink.For example:

①, our name is Coca-Cola Company, mysterious and noble.

② our drinks look like red wine, not sugary water. We inflate this drink to make it look like champagne or other expensive drinks.

③ we will make it taste so good that it is difficult for competitors to imitate.Because we associate many expensive psychological effects with our taste, it should be different from any standard taste, so that we create the greatest difficulty for our competitors. and ensure that no existing drinks benefit from the taste that happens to be the same as our products. (product differentiation)

④ human beings also have the psychological tendency of "social identity".

It refers to imitative consumption caused only by seeing the consumption of others. It not only makes it easier for consumers to accept our products, but also makes them feel more rewarded.

When we design advertising and promotion plans and consider the investment of sales costs, we will always take this strong social identity factor into account.

5. Summary

If you combine the following factors:

① Bavlo conditioned reflex

The strong social identity effect of ②

③ is an excellent, refreshing, cold and refreshing drink that can cause operational conditioned reflexes.

The great combination of these three factors will lead to a continuous increase in our sales for a long time. This is similar to the self-catalytic reaction in a chemical reaction, which is exactly the kind of lollapalooza effect caused by many factors that we need.

Third, the third question is what kind of sales strategy is adopted?

There are two feasible ways to sell drinks: one is to sell it as syrup to a cold drink store or restaurant, and the other is to sell it as a complete bottled soda.

We want the Lollapalooza effect, so we will use both methods.

We also want Pavlov and social identity, so we will always spend a lot of money on advertising and promotions, selling syrup to cold drinks shops at a 60% discount.

The fourth question is how to maximize profits.

1. Only a few syrup mills can meet the needs of the world. But in order to avoid unnecessary transportation costs, we need to set up filling plants all over the country.

2. We can maximize profits as long as we have the pricing power and the right to determine the price of syrup sold to cold drink stores and the price of our bottled products.

3. The best way to get this kind of control that can maximize profits is to make every independent bottling factory we need become a commissioned manufacturer, not a buyer of syrup. What's more, they can't have a permanent right to buy syrup at the original price forever.

4. We will try our best to keep our recipe secret.

We will trumpet our secret recipe, which will strengthen the Pavlov effect. In the end, competitors will produce drinks that taste similar to ours. But at that time, we will have a big lead, a strong brand effect, and a perfect "never out of stock" worldwide sales channel, so competitors copying our taste will not prevent us from achieving our goals.

5. the driving force for the development of the industry

The development of food will bring us benefits, including better refrigeration, better transportation, and ways to keep sweetness without adding sugar.

6. New product development

We will seize some opportunities to develop related drinks.

Fifth, the fifth question is: what situations should we avoid?

1. Avoid consumers getting bored after drinking beverages.

Darwinian evolution: once consumers get bored, their physiological mechanisms become resistant to beverages.

2. Avoid losing a strong trademark name.

3. Avoid the evil consequences of jealousy.

4. After the taste of the brand occupies the new market, we must avoid making major changes to the taste of the product.

After the above efforts, the taste of the original product has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people and become the preference of consumers. If the taste is changed, it will lead to "deprivation super reaction syndrome" among consumers.

Changing the taste will allow competitors to gain an advantage by copying our taste, because they can take advantage of the following factors:

The hostility of ① consumers because they are deprived of their original taste

② the love of our taste created by our previous products.

The above is the solution to our task:

How to turn 2 million dollars into 2 trillion dollars after paying billions of dollars in dividends.

Edit / lydia

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment