Original: uncle at the intersection
The rent is repeating the mistakes of the house price bubble.
The young people who fantasized about the seaside villa yesterday may begin to despair about the rent today.
Rents in hot cities across the country have been running out of control over the past month. Front-line rents are up nearly 20% year-on-year. When he woke up one night, the proletarian youth was in danger of standing in a cone.
Even if they fled from the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Chengdu and Xi'an had year-on-year increases of 30.98% and 25.08%, waiting for talents to settle down.
Since the second half of 2018, the rent tsunami has hit, the capital carnival, the official silence, the landlord entangled, the tenant screamed.
This is not one party's fault, but more like a "collective murder work" of the whole society.What is most disturbing is that the game and rising logic of real estate in the past are being transferred to rent today.
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A shock related to the "national economy and people's livelihood" has begun.
Rents in Shenzhen soared 29.68% year-on-year in July, compared with 21.89% in Beijing, 21.65% in Guangzhou and 16.46% in Shanghai, according to China House prices website.
In August last year, when we analyzed the rent level in Beijing, we found Shaoyaoju Beili on the North fourth Ring Road as a sample. Find out and compare it today.
Rent for August 2017
Take a 60-square-meter house, for example, the rent has increased by about 30%. For the rent of 80-square-meter house last year, you can only rent a 60-square-meter house this year.
This kind of critical strike is really unprepared. Watching the news for ten days doesn't make me believe that life is sweet.
Rent for August 2018
If you look at it from a month-on-month basis, KE Holdings Inc. Research Institute (formerly Lianjia Research Institute) also has a data-- going north to Shenzhen rose 2.4%, 2.1% and 3.1% month-on-month in July. At about this point, we can understand a little bit of why CPI broke through 2% in July.
I would like to ask my brothers and sisters of the proletariat, has your income increased faster than the rent? Although house prices are held down, the rate of return on rent must go up a little bit and give back to the landlords. We are psychologically prepared for rent increases, but we can't fly to Saturn on a rocket.
The skyrocketing rent is a more serious event than the soaring house price.
Because house prices have risen, the rigid demand that cannot afford to buy a house can at least afford to rent, but if the rent can soar, the population at the bottom of the city will not even have a place to stay, and a large number of grass-roots white-collar and blue-collar living space will be squeezed. This is an economic and social problem that affects a wide range of economic and social problems and affects the industry of the city and the well-being of the people.
Who made the rent so wild?
In fact, as early as August 2017, after the official launch of renting and buying houses with the same rights, sharing property rights, and renting but not selling houses, Zhigu wrote an article to analyze that when China's property market enters an inflection point, rents are bound to rise, which is a general trend, but rents will not skyrocket in the short term, which is based on the analysis of supply and demand at that time.
Unexpectedly, just a few months later, accidents happened one after another. Which hand is controlling all this?
Some people say it's the property tax. The property tax has been blowing for many years, but this year it has suddenly quickened the pace, and it has become a market consensus to land within three or five years. This will inevitably lead to a transfer of costs, eager landlords will bring together the tenants to bear, so that the rate of return on rent back to the "normal level".
There is a certain logic in this statement, but on further investigation, I find that things are far from as simple as I thought, and there are two major accidents that have to be mentioned.
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One of the accidents is the capital enclosure.
Here, there is a sign of great alarm-all kinds of capital are hyping the rent, and flour is even more expensive than bread.
An owner of Tiantongyuan in Beijing said that his 120-square-meter house was to be rented out, but the psychological expectation was 7500. As a result, two companies, Lili and eggshell apartment, came and paid the price of 10800 per month for 11 months after a fight.
The owner could not help warning that the capital had set its sights on renting and wanted to drain the blood of young people.
The post immediately ignited the public mood: "well, it turns out that these long-term rental platforms burn money and enclose land, and they just want to monopolize the market, bid up rents, and try to make exorbitant profits!" "
The long-rented apartment is aggrieved: "our operating costs are very high, we still have the general management of the housekeeper, we have to redecorate with furniture, we are losing money!" "
However, there are still many people who do not understand the logic behind the rent rise. At a loss? Dare to love these enterprises are doing charity ah?
Speaking of which, we have to mention the original intention of the country. After the proposal of "housing without speculation" in 2017, "renting and selling at the same time" followed suit, and renting also ushered in supply-side reform.
From the central government to the local authorities, various guiding opinions, pilot programs, and management regulations have been issued one after another in the short term, on the one hand, popularizing the concept of "the same right for rent and purchase" to the whole people, and on the other hand, encouraging all kinds of capital to enter the market, vowing to make up for the deficiency of renting housing.
The idea is beautiful, but you have to make the company willing to come in before the story can be told.
If you want to make a house that is only rented but not sold, where is the profit? In the past, if you sold more suites, you could get the money back, but now how many years do you have to rent before you can get back the capital? What about the cash flow of the enterprise? The secret to increasing the rate of return on rent is two things: leverage and pricing power.
Take it freely, for example, on the surface, it looks like an intermediary company, closing a variety of separate orders, and then focusing on decoration, rental, and management. Because of the improvement in operating costs and housing quality, the rent must have gone up.
But the more important thing is behind it. It is free to pack up the project and engage in asset securitization, which is guaranteed by assets based on rental income rights, and is put into the financial market to issue the domestic first rental housing market consumption installment ABS, allowing all kinds of funds to subscribe, and give everyone some dividends every year.
Note that the cost of this fund is actually not high, and it is more confident to do large-scale shopping at all costs.
A lot of capital is betting on renting this tuyere, and the larger the scale and the more resources in the early stage, the greater the pricing power in the future, and the more unimaginable the profit space will be.
In January this year, free has become the first unicorn in the long-term rental market, with round A financing of 4 billion yuan and a valuation of more than 20 billion yuan. At present, nearly 20 housing enterprises in the market have successfully issued housing rental capitalization products with a scale of hundreds of billions of yuan.
The logic of capital driving up house prices is now looming in the rental market:
Introducing leverage into the rental market and acquiring large amounts of cheap capital-scrambling for housing at all costs-flour is more expensive than bread, that is, the price collected from landlords is higher than the price rented out-driven by bond yields. began to bid up rents to make a profit-rents soared and bubbles loomed.
The sooner you enter the market layout, the more likely you are to win. At present, the capital entering the market is state-owned assets (Poly), private capital (Vanke), and foreign capital (Warbug Pincus).
And those young leeks who rent houses have no choice but to wait for their lives to be cut.
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The second accident is the large-scale rectification of group rental housing.
There is chaos on the supply and demand side of rental housing, in addition to interest-driven capital, the tough tangible hand may also have to be carried on the back.
In first-tier cities, the large-scale rectification of group rental housing has become a key task in the past year or two.
At the end of 2017, Beijing began to overhaul its non-capital functions, and many grass-roots workers who could only afford to rent housing were displaced overnight. the permanent population of Beijing grew by 22000 at the end of the past 17 years for the first time. On the face of it, everyone is gone, the market demand should be reduced, and there is no reason for rents to rise.
But it's a lot more than that.
Only a small number of people have left Beijing. After rectifying partitions and group rental housing, a large number of blue-collar and grass-roots white-collar workers have been driven into the narrower rental market, and the demand has soared.
The contradiction between supply and demand is so great that we can get a visual understanding of the satellite contrast images intercepted by the financial observer "Sai Dong".
On May 9, 2017, the village + suburban factory + logistics base, between the 5th and 6th rings in the southwest, is about 7.4 kilometers from south to north (the length of a yellow straight line on the map). The large area of colored steel ceiling is very conspicuous.
If you go again in May this year, you will never find it again.
A village in the city on the edge of the Fifth Ring Road in the northeast of Chaoyang District was demolished in a year.
In the past few years, the momentum of Beijing's "dismantling illegal construction" is beyond imagination:
The number of illegal tasks in 2015 was 15 million square meters.
The total volume of demolition in 2016 was 29.79 million square meters.
The total volume of demolition in 2017 was 59.85 million square meters.
40 million square meters are planned for 2018, and 16.4 million square meters were completed in the first four months, accounting for 41 percent.
The total construction area of houses in Beijing is 882 million square meters, and nearly 60 million square meters of illegal structures are demolished every year, equivalent to demolishing more than 14 houses in the city every year.
The supply at the bottom of the rental market has been massively removed, but "jointly owned housing" and "public rental housing" cannot immediately keep up, resulting in a sudden imbalance between supply and demand, and the struggle between three people for a flat has become a struggle for eight people, and the rent has become inevitable. The transformation of urban villages in Shenzhen and the rectification of group rental housing in Shanghai are all played in this way.
Is there a familiar smell of "shed reform"? the last housing supply-side reform successfully removed inventory, and now it has also successfully heated the rental market.
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To sum up, the sharp rise in rent is caused by the superposition of several factors.
Although the rate of return on rent in Chinese cities is very abnormal today, there is room for rent to rise relative to house prices.
We have counted the rental return of major cities around the world and found that the rental return of Chinese cities has not improved in the past year. The rental return of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is less than 2% (annual rent / house price), which is the lowest in the world.
But from the perspective of the public, we only have the house price of an international metropolis, but not the income of an international metropolis.
According to a standard in foreign countries, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development defines the disposable income of a family / individual whose rental expenditure is more than 30% as a cost burden (cost burdened). The rent-to-income ratio in China's first-tier cities has seriously exceeded the standard, reaching more than 45%.
Since 2013, the disposable income of Chinese urban residents has not outpaced the growth rate of GDP, and now they want rents to go up. For ordinary people with dreams of big cities, the end result is nothing more than the same: those who used to sleep in the bedroom, today they slept in the living room, and today they slept next to the public toilet.
"do you still want to spend this carriage? The people questioned from the depths of their souls.
If you apply the game of rising house prices to rents and repeat the same mistake, the rental market will become very dangerous.
Head strength, interest groups have long owned a lot of social wealth, but most people are still working in a small room every day. China has successfully controlled house prices, and then how to control housing rents and achieve "home ownership" is a big problem.
Here, China can learn from the continental European model and develop a public rental housing system, but we must pay attention to three major points:
Rational distribution of social resources
Building public rental housing to places with inconvenient transportation on the outskirts of the city will not ease the competition for resources in the rental market. In many countries in Western Europe, housing with a security nature will be evenly distributed in places with convenient transportation, even in the city center. In South Korea, every community requires that there must be a supporting indemnificatory apartment. Of course, rents will also be adjusted in order to increase the assets of homeowners.
Fine management
Indemnificatory apartment's input speed needs to be calculated very carefully. If a large amount of indemnificatory apartment is invested rashly, it will do great harm to the healthy development of the housing market. In 1997, the anxious Hong Kong wanted to solve the housing problem in one fell swoop and launched a "85 thousand plan", which led to a big crash in the property market.
Put power in a cage
Let public rental housing serve people with real needs, and prevent power rent-seeking and hype. It is a warning that some cheap houses have been eroded and speculated into the market.
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In China, if the government really makes up its mind to do something, nothing can be done.
What is happening now is a major event related to the survival of the people.
Next is the abyss or the blue sea, a new round of wealth plunder, or the standardized development of the leasing market, China has reached an inescapable tipping point.
Think tanks who have been busy offering advice on setting up a "fertility fund" and levying a "dink tax" over the past two days, please understand that if you can no longer afford to rent a house, who dares to have children for the country?
In the final analysis, the people are the real national economy and people's livelihood.