Societe Generale Securities: the new energy vehicle industry is in the ascendant and the markets of China, the United States and Europe are in the ascendant.

Zhitong Finance · May 19, 2022 13:56

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研究报告称，新能源车市场高景气度延续，预计2022年全球新能源车销量近980万辆，其中中国、欧洲、美国分别达550万辆、262万辆及122万辆，预计动力电池需求达533GWh。推荐产业链核心资产宁德时代(300750.SZ)、恩捷股份(002812.SH)、亿纬锂能(300014.SZ)，及具备强α的中科电气(300035.SZ);电池技术升级上，建议关注具备研发优势，技术抢先布局的细分环节龙头，推荐容百科技(688005.SH)、中伟股份(300919.SZ)、嘉元科技(688388.SH)、璞泰来(603659.SH)。

全球：新能源车高增长势头依旧。根据Marklines最新数据，22Q1全球新能源车销量同比增长85%达203.0万辆，高增长势头依旧。其中，中国、欧洲、美国三大市场销量分别为120.0、53.3、21.5万辆，同比增长145.8%、19.5%、72.4%。政策持续发力，叠加能源价格上涨的背景下，全球新能源车渗透率升至11%。

中国：市场在价格上涨下韧性十足，政策协调下复工复产已有序展开。受政策退坡、原材料价格上涨等冲击，多家车企价格上调但未实质影响销量，2022Q1批发销量达119.0万辆，同比增长145.4%，渗透率达新高21.9%;私人购车率及非限牌地区上险量高企，表明新能源车逐渐转向市场驱动。比亚迪(002594.SZ)以连续两月销量破十万稳居第一，Q1同比增加422.6%，新势力车企Q1销量环比增加146.4%。受疫情影响，汽车供应链承压，新势力车企4月销量均缩水;政策协调下复工复产已有序展开，上汽和特斯拉都已实现整车批量下线，各地方政府也陆续出台了促消费政策，预期疫情影响将逐步减弱。

欧洲：新能源车市场高增长势头依旧。2022Q1欧洲新能源车销量达53.3万辆，同比+19.5%。2022年1-3月欧洲新能源车销量分别为14.5、15.4、23.4万辆，同比分别为+30.3%、+35.2%、+5.9%，2022Q1渗透率同比增加4.7pct达15.2%。英国3月注册量创历史新高，环比+266.7%达5.5万辆。欧洲八国纯电注册量同比+52.7%达26.0万辆;插混注册量同比-10.8%达17.8万辆，纯电占比达59.4%。特斯拉欧洲总注册量达5.9万辆，其中Model3总注册量达3.3万辆，ModelY总注册量达2.5万辆。且特斯拉在欧洲多国注册量环比显着提升，英国特斯拉总注册量达1.3万辆，环比+1.0万辆;德国总注册量达0.8万辆，环比+0.2万辆。

美国：政策驱动下电动化趋势确定，优质供给增加带动销量。政府加大新能源车投入，终版碳排放标准紧缩趋势明显，CAFE标准提升速度大幅升至8%，企业减排压力增大，利好新能源市场。2022年Q1美国新能源车销量同比高增72.4%，达21.5万辆，3月渗透率实现6.4%。纯电市场高增长势头依旧，电动皮卡有望成为下一个风口。2022年Q1特斯拉同比增长88.8%，销量8.3万，市占率升至62.8%，通用逐渐恢复BoltEV/EUV的生产，预计销量将随之上涨。

风险提示：政策效果不及预期、下游需求不及预期、原材料价格持续上行、行业政策变化

According to a research report released by Societe Generale Securities, the new energy vehicle market is expected to sell nearly 9.8 million new energy vehicles worldwide in 2022, of which China, Europe and the United States will reach 5.5 million, 2.62 million and 1.22 million respectively, and the demand for power batteries is expected to reach 533GWh, Zitong Financial APP learned. Recommend the core assets of the industry chain, Ningde Times (300750.SZ), Enjie shares (002812.SH), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), and Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ) with strong alpha; in the upgrading of battery technology, it is recommended to pay attention to the subdivision leaders with R & D advantages and technology pre-emptive layout, and recommend Rong Bai Technology (688005.SH), Zhongwei shares (300919.SZ), Jiayuan Technology (688388.SH) and PUTALAI (603659.SH).

Global: the high growth momentum of new energy vehicles remains the same.According to the latest Marklines data, 22Q1 global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 85% year-on-year to 2.03 million vehicles, with the same high growth momentum. Among them, sales in China, Europe and the United States were 120.0, 53.3 and 215000 vehicles respectively, up 145.8%, 19.5% and 72.4% over the same period last year. The policy continues to work, and against the backdrop of rising energy prices, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles has risen to 11%.

China: the market is very resilient under the rising prices, and the resumption of work and production has been carried out in an orderly manner under policy coordination.Due to the impact of policy retreat and rising raw material prices, a number of car companies raised prices but did not really affect sales. Wholesale sales of 2022Q1 reached 1.19 million, an increase of 145.4% over the same period last year, and the penetration rate reached a new high of 21.9%. The high rate of private car purchases and the high risk in unrestricted license areas indicate that new energy vehicles are gradually turning to market-driven. 002594.SZ topped the list with sales exceeding 100, 000 for two months in a row, with Q1 up 422.6% year-on-year and Q1, a new power car company, up 146.4% from a month earlier. Affected by the epidemic, the automobile supply chain is under pressure, and the sales of new power car enterprises have all shrunk in April; under policy coordination, the resumption of work and production has been carried out in an orderly manner, SAIC and Tesla, Inc. have both gone offline in batches, and local governments have also issued policies to promote consumption one after another. it is expected that the impact of the epidemic will gradually weaken.

Europe: the high growth momentum of the new energy vehicle market remains.Sales of 2022Q1 new energy vehicles in Europe reached 533000, up 19.5% from the same period last year. Sales of new energy vehicles in Europe from January to March in 2022 were 14.5,15.4 and 234000 respectively, with year-on-year sales of + 30.3%, + 35.2% and + 5.9% respectively. The penetration rate of 2022Q1 increased by 15.2% compared with the same period last year. The number of registrations in the UK hit an all-time high in March, with + 266.7 per cent reaching 55000. The number of pure electric registrations in eight European countries reached 260000 vehicles compared with the same period last year, and the number of plug-in registrations reached 178000 vehicles, accounting for 59.4% of the total. Tesla, Inc. registered a total of 59000 vehicles in Europe, of which 33000 were registered by Model3 and 25000 by ModelY. And the registration volume of Tesla, Inc. in many European countries increased significantly compared with the previous month. The total registration volume of Tesla, Inc. in the UK reached 13000, with + 10000 compared with the previous month; and the total registered volume in Germany reached 8000 and + 2000 compared with the previous year.

Us: policy-driven electrification trend determines that an increase in high-quality supply drives sales.The government has increased investment in new energy vehicles, the tightening trend of the final carbon emission standards is obvious, the speed of CAFE standards has risen sharply to 8%, and the pressure on enterprises to reduce emissions has increased, which is good for the new energy market. Sales of Q1 new energy vehicles in the US rose 72.4 per cent in 2022 from a year earlier to 215000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 6.4 per cent in March. The high growth momentum of the pure electricity market remains, and the electric pickup is expected to become the next tuyere. In 2022, Q1 Tesla, Inc. increased 88.8% year-on-year, sales 83000, market share rose to 62.8%, GM gradually resumed BoltEV/EUV production, sales are expected to increase.

Risk Tips:Policy effect is less than expected, downstream demand is lower than expected, raw material prices continue to rise, and industry policy changes.

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兴业证券：新能源车行业方兴未艾 中美欧市场共振向上

Societe Generale Securities: the new energy vehicle industry is in the ascendant and the markets of China, the United States and Europe are in the ascendant.

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兴业证券：新能源车行业方兴未艾中美欧市场共振向上