Zhitong Financial APP learned that Tianfeng Securities released a research report saying that passenger traffic in April 22 was the lowest since the epidemic, and passenger flights fell 74.5 per cent year on year due to the continued spread of the epidemic during the May Day period. The bank is still optimistic about the performance of the Aviation Department in the third and fourth quarters after the epidemic has gradually stabilized. If the epidemic situation is stable and travel restrictions are relaxed, civil aviation passenger traffic may rebound significantly from the third quarter, superimposed by the traditional summer peak season, passenger volume may even exceed the level of passenger traffic in the second quarter of 21, and passenger traffic in the fourth quarter is also expected to exceed the same period in 21 years. The rebound in passenger volume will lead to an increase in the occupancy rate and ticket prices, and the performance of the Aviation Department may be repaired more quickly. Recommend Air China Limited (601111.SH), China Southern Airlines Company (600029.SH), Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway (601816.SH), COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919.SH), Shanghai Port Group (600018.SH), Lanjian Intelligence (688557.SH).
The main points of Tianfeng Securities are as follows:
The overall fluctuation of the epidemic situation across the country has declined, and the travel plate is expected to recover.
The difference of epidemic situation leads to the difference of recovery rhythm of listed companies in travel plate. Shenzhen, Baiyun and Xiamen airports are recovering well, while Shanghai Airport (600009.SH) is still recovering gradually. The overall flight volume of listed airlines recovered slowly, but there was a big difference between aviation divisions. China Southern Airlines reached the bottom and rebounded, while Air China, China Eastern Airlines and auspicious Airlines recovered slowly. The bank expects passenger traffic to begin to recover in late May. As the epidemic situation stabilizes, the entire travel sector is expected to recover significantly from mid-to-late May. If the epidemic situation is stable, the arrival of travel peaks such as summer transportation and National Day in the second half of the year, the prosperity of the travel plate is still worth looking forward to.
The epidemic situation determines the degree of aviation recovery, and a rebound is expected in the third or fourth quarter.
Passenger traffic was in the doldrums during April and May Day, but with the epidemic stabilizing, civil aviation passenger traffic is expected to recover gradually from mid to late May. The immigration restriction policy may lead to a further reduction in international and regional passenger traffic, but it has a limited impact on the performance of the Aviation Division during the epidemic, as the volume of passengers on overseas routes is less than 1 per cent during the outbreak. The bank is still optimistic about the performance of the Aviation Department in the third and fourth quarters after the epidemic has gradually stabilized. If the epidemic situation is stable, civil aviation passenger traffic may rebound significantly from the third quarter, superimposed by the traditional summer peak season, passenger volume may reach a new high since the epidemic, thus leading to an increase in the occupancy rate and ticket prices, and the performance of the Aviation Department may be repaired more quickly.
The concentrated freight volume is expected to recover, and the freight rate will stabilize and rise.
The freight rate fell significantly from February to April, mainly due to the lack of short-term cargo volume caused by the Chinese New year and the epidemic, and the improvement of port congestion in Europe and the United States has brought about an increase in effective transport capacity. However, since May, the freight rate of the east-west trunk line has stabilized and rebounded. Looking back, the bank believes that with the gradual resumption of work and production in Shanghai, the volume of goods is expected to be replenished, and the price of the long Association may restrict the alliance to jointly maintain the spot freight rate to safeguard the interests of itself and its major customers. there is little room and probability for the follow-up freight rate to fall further. As of Q1, COSCO Shipping Holdings's net debt has reached-150.3 billion yuan, with the gradual realization of profits during the year, the company's balance sheet is expected to be stronger.
The high prosperity of intelligent warehousing and logistics industry has begun to emerge.
According to the first quarter data, the revenue side of the industry achieved more excellent growth, but the profit side performed more generally. The bank believes that the first quarter is mainly caused by the traditional off-season, rising prices of raw materials, increased competition, a sharp increase in fees and other factors. At present, companies are full of orders, and both high-end manufacturing and traditional industries need the help of intelligent warehousing and logistics systems to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the industry is expected to step into a golden period of development.
Risk Tips:The epidemic has exceeded expectations, oil prices have risen sharply, the global economy has declined more than expected, and the cost of raw materials such as steel has risen more than expected.