Everbright Securities released a research report saying that electrification promotes intelligence and will promote the transition of on-line chassis to large-scale applications, Zhitong Financial APP has learned. With the promotion of carbon peak and carbon neutralization around the world, the introduction of a series of reward and punishment measures not only promotes the rapid development of new energy vehicles, but also provides the basis for the development of automobile intelligence. Compared with the traditional chassis, the wire-controlled chassis has the advantages of lightweight, energy saving and accurate operation, which is in line with the development direction of automobile electric intelligence. Focus on recommended targets, brake by wire and steering by wire: the bank recommends 1) domestic brake parts supplier 603596.SH, which gives a "buy" rating for the first time; 2) the global steering system leader, Nestor (01316), covers the "buy" rating for the first time.
The main points of Everbright Securities are as follows:
Core growth track of chassis by wire, brake by wire & steering by wire
Among the four systems of on-line chassis, the core is braking-steering, which is still on the eve of large-scale mass production and has more room for growth. With the increase of the penetration rate of electric vehicles, the gradual promotion of intelligent networking and the upgrading of consumption, the bank expects that 1) the 2025E line controls the domestic market / global market size of about RMB 6.8 billion-11.8 billion / RMB 14.1 billion-24.9 billion, and the domestic market Cagr of 2021-2025E is about 44% RMB66% Ting. 2) 2025E line control turns to the domestic market / global market size of about RMB 3.2 billion-5.5 billion / RMB 6.7 billion-11.6 billion.
Brake by wire, the industry pattern may be rewashed, and the onebox scheme will become the mainstream.
The wire-controlled braking system abandons the traditional vacuum power system completely through the way that the motor provides power directly, fundamentally improves the logic of brake power, and solves the pain point that it is difficult for new energy vehicles to obtain vacuum sources. According to whether the braking power is transmitted by hydraulic pressure, wire-controlled braking can be divided into wet-by-wire braking system (EHB) and dry-by-wire braking system (EMB). Among them, EMB has better braking performance and integration, but it has certain pain points (space limitation, material performance, etc.), so it may not become the mainstream scheme in the market in the short and medium term. EHB derives two solutions: onebox and twobox according to whether it is integrated with ESP or not. Onebox scheme, which has the advantages of high integration, lightweight and efficient capacity recovery, is expected to become the mainstream solution at this stage. At present, the mainstream scheme in the domestic market is Bosch iBooster+ESP (twobox), and the overall permeability of line control is relatively low. The bank believes that independent parts companies with onebox mass production plan may rapidly expand their market share in this volume of wheel-line control brake products.
Steering by wire, software deployment creates technical barriers, landing on a large scale or later
The on-line steering system further cancels the hard link between the steering wheel and the steering mechanism on the basis of EPS, and the steering power and road sense feedback are provided by two motors respectively. Its advantage lies in the flexibility and comfort brought by mechanical decoupling, which provides more imagination space for high-order autopilot and intelligent cockpit functions, but because the basic driving assistance function may be satisfied by the electric power steering system. The bank believes that the time for large-scale infiltration of wire-controlled steering may be a little later than that of on-line braking system. The structure of on-line steering product is similar to that of R-EPS, and the technical difficulty lies in the safety redundancy under mechanical decoupling and the simulation of steering handle. The bank judged that companies with good R-EPS technology and strong software development capabilities will have a greater say in the follow-up process of on-line steering system volume.
Risk Tips:Global epidemic control was lower than expected, global car sales were lower than expected, chip supply shortages exceeded expectations, upstream raw material prices fell less than expected, and exchange rate risks.