Bank of America Corporation released a survey of fund managers in April, and the results have been verified in the bear market a month later.

So in the latest survey of fund managers released in May, BofA's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, known for being bearish, said his "doomsday" view had been shared by a growing number of Wall Street people. The results of a survey of 331 fund managers (with a total management size of $986 billion) showCompared with last month, they have sharply reduced their expectations for global growth and have fallen to an all-time low.（-72%）。

The forecast for global profit also fell to-66% from 63% before.It hit the lowest level since the financial crisis in October 2008.

It is worth mentioning that low global profit expectations are usually consistent with times of crisis. Global profit expectations hit lows during the collapse of hedge fund LTCM during the Russian debt crisis in 1998, the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000, the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020.

The findings also contain many details.

Among them, fund managers' concerns about economic stagflation have soared from 66% to 77%.Refresh the highest level since August 2008.

Under the pessimism that investors have never had before.Their cash holdings have reached their highest level in 20 years since September 11, 2001.It shows that investors are trying to avoid major risks by significantly increasing their cash holdings.

Short positions in technology stocks hit their highest level since August 2006.

Under the massive rotation of technology stocks, the proportion of investors overweight technology stocks and defense stocks has fallen to its lowest level since October 2008.

Similarly, many hedge funds have cut their exposure to multiple sectors of the stock market, reducing their holdings of the worst-performing technology stocks in the first quarter of this year.

The reduction of stock holdings is also the largest since May 2020.(it increased by 6% in April and reduced by 13% in May).

Although the indicators released by Bank of America Corporation suggest that the market is on the brink of "buying against the trend", it can provide a short-term buying window, that is, a bear market rebound.

But as Hartnett mentioned in the report, the US stock market "has not yet hit the bottom"Because investors don't think the Fed will stop raising interest rates.

Investors expect the Fed to raise interest rates 7.9 times this cycle, up from 7.4 in April.

At the same time, the survey results show that there is a consensus that inflation in the United States has peaked, and 68% of respondents expect inflation to fall in the coming quarters.

And 34% of respondents (53% in April) expect bond yields to continue to rise, but the number of people who expect short-term interest rates to rise sharply to 78%.

In addition, it aims at the future trend of US stocks.Investors expect the S & P to fall to 3529, down another 12 per cent from its current level.

The central bank becomes the biggest hidden danger.

And in terms of risk expectations,The May survey showed that the top tail risk was hawkish central banks, followed by potential recession, inflation and geopolitical risk, respectively.

In other words, the currency risk caused by the central bank has become the biggest "bomb" affecting market stability, reaching an all-time high of 52%.

Geopolitical risk fell from 92 per cent to 87 per cent, followed by business cycle risk (75 per cent) and emerging market risk (57 per cent).

From a monthly point of view, the survey results show that the largest tail risk is also concentrated in the central bank.

Defensive assets regain favor risk assets bid farewell to highlight moment

For the future investment direction, the survey results show that investors believe that the peak of oil may be coming, but Bitcoin will bid farewell to the highlight of the moment.

56% of investors think oil will get the best return in 2022, but only 2% think bitcoin will outperform the market.

Overall, investors are bullish on cash, commodities, health care and food; bearish on technology, equities, Europe and emerging markets.

This shows that investors have taken turns leaving technology, banking and other sectors since May and tend to be long "unfavored" stocks and short "hot" stocks. They stand on the defensive side, favouring food, cash and health care.

Investors are less pessimistic about Europe in terms of expectations for different regions, but more pessimistic about stock markets in the US, UK and emerging markets. Investors are selling down their holdings of emerging market stocks at an all-time high, but they also expect to increase their exposure again in the next 12 months.