Wen / Wan Yongqiang (Director of Zhitong Financial Research Center)
[dissecting the market]
Today, the trend of Hong Kong stocks is super strong, opening high and walking steadily throughout the day, closing at a high at the end of the day, and the Hang Seng Index rose 652 points. Trading volume is also synchronously enlarged, showing that the 20-day moving average breakthrough is effective.
Stock markets around the world are expected to be jubilant today for several reasons:
1, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine eased, the media quoted the Ukrainian military as saying on the 17th that the Ukrainian army was trying to withdraw the remaining Ukrainian troops besieged in the last stronghold of Mariupol. The commentary pointed out that this may mark the end of the longest and bloodiest battle in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and it is also a major defeat for Ukraine. In addition, there is a very important point. With regard to Finland's accession to NATO, Putin said: there are no problems between Russia and Finland and Sweden, and the two countries' accession to NATO will not pose a "direct threat" to Russia. Without harsh words, the alarm was lifted.
On May 16, JPMorgan Chase & Co suddenly took a "bullish view" on Chinese Internet technology stocks and collectively raised the rating and target price of Chinese Internet technology stocks. It pointed out that the short-term and long-term fundamental outlook is being re-examined, China's Internet industry is getting rid of all kinds of uncertainty, and the share price of the head company may rise higher than expected in the future. Among them, JPMorgan Chase & Co's flagship China Fund substantially increased its position in JD.com by 1253% in the first quarter, while Qiaoshui Fund and Foda International also increased their holdings in Tencent, BABA, Meituan, Pinduoduo, Baidu, Inc. and other Chinese Internet technology stocks. The somersault obviously saw something different.
There is no doubt that the Internet giants are on a buying spree, and the Hang Seng Technology Index is up more than four points. The core chips of Shanghai Fudan (01385), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) and optical giant Shunyu Optics (02382) were grabbed at the bottom.
However, the strongest market is new energy vehicles, and the stimulus is the auction of shares in Snowway Mining, which is extremely hot. From the starting price of 3 million to over 150 million, Ganfeng Lithium (01772) directly pulled up nearly 8 points. The repeatedly mentioned Great Wall Motor (02333) rose nearly 12 points again. BYD (01211), Geely Automobile (00175) and Li Auto Inc. (02015) rushed in. Auto parts direction of Minshi Group (00425), Nice (01316) rising tide lifts all boats.
[plate focus]
StateoftheCloud publishes the annual global SaaS industry development report, which is published by Bessemer, the world's leading cloud and SaaS investment agency. SisiSong, which leads Bessemer China investment, also participated in the writing of this report. The summary is as follows: good SaaS products are enduring enterprise consumer goods, the development trend of SaaS industry is irreversible, GlobalSaaS must be one of the most important global assets in the next 5-10 years. Despite a correction in the industry as a whole over the past year, the SaaS industry as a whole has maintained an upward trend in terms of time scale: the cloud index at the beginning of 2022 is still 60 per cent higher than at the beginning of 2020. During the outbreak, Cloud/SaaS of Top25% in the secondary market was at its lowest valuation as 10.8xP/S, while now it is 9.5xP/S, which is clearly in a valuation depression.
Future trends: 1, global supply chain upgrade: more than 90% of Fortune 500 executives say they plan to increase the flexibility of their supply chains this year, and the complexity of the global supply chain makes the involvement of SaaS software necessary. 2, mixed office and remote collaboration mode will continue to exist: the rise of new work and organizational operation mode is inseparable from the support of a series of cloud software, and the normalization of hybrid office has brought a new market of software tools. 3. The scale of freelancers is growing. If you look at the data, in 2021, China's cloud software expenditure has the highest growth rate in the world, reaching 45%. China spent $27 billion on clouds in 2021 and is expected to grow to $85 billion by 2026.
Today, the relevant SAAS concepts in the Hong Kong stock market are widely available, including China Youzan (08083), Weimeng Group (02013), China Software International (00354), Kingsoft (03888) and Kingdee International Software Group (00268) mentioned yesterday.
[comments on changing stocks]
1, China has likes (08083) expected to improve the intraday suddenly pull up 8.65%
There were 9621 new paying merchants in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 21% over the same period last year. There are 89208 inventory-paying merchants, up from the number at the end of 2021. Among them, 37% of the merchants who pay for SaaS products in subscriptions account for 37%, which has more than doubled compared with the same period last year.
Comments: the company's non-Kuaishou Technology GMV continues to grow, with praise for Q1 non-Kuaishou Technology business growth of about 25% over the same period last year. The growth of store SaaS is good, and the number of new payment merchants in store SaaS has doubled compared with the same period last year. 2022Q1, such as Danone, Guangzhou Automobile Toyota, SCC Super running Club and other well-known brands and merchants have joined the like K100 program, with the help of the depth of K100 to achieve the landing and growth of digital transformation of large merchants and big brands. In the aspect of new retail business, it has expanded the regional leading enterprises in the fields of fashion clothing, mother and child, retail department stores in the same city, shopping center property and so on. The expansion and development of medium and large customers is more in line with the expected progress of the company, and the product and service capabilities of the company's large customers continue to improve.
2. Xinli International (00732) plans to acquire additional equity of Xinli Renshou by 9.14%.
The Group announced that it is in discussions with relevant parties on the possible acquisition of an additional equity stake in Xinli Renshou from the Renshou Ji'an No.1 Co., Ltd. at present, it is expected that the possible acquisition will cost no more than 1 billion yuan. It is reported that Xinli Renshou holds about 7.14%, 28.57% and 64.29% interests respectively by Xinli Electronics, Renshou Ji'an No.1 Co., Ltd. and Renshou property Investment Co., Ltd. Xinli Renshou is currently an associate of the group. If the acquisition is implemented, it is expected that Sino Renshou will remain an associate of the Group after the acquisition.
Comments: Xinli's income in the past few years is more than 20 billion yuan, and it is mainly mobile phones, but the gross profit margin of mobile phones is very low, only 2-3%. It is a large-scale business. Since 2021, the proportion of automobile business has increased rapidly, with the focus shifting to the large display screen of cars. Wang Chuanfu predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland will exceed 35% in 2022. New energy vehicles use an average of 5-6 screens per vehicle, which is much higher than the average of 1-2 screens per traditional vehicle. At present, with the popularity of new energy vehicles, the demand for display screens will continue to increase. In addition, the competition pattern is very good, and the top three players in the future are Xinli, BOE Jingdian and Tianma. If the acquisition is successful, it will increase the company's profits.
3. The continuous repurchase of China Software International (00354) Group has risen by 7.34%.
The Group previously bought back a total of 3 million shares for two consecutive days, of which 2 million shares were repurchased on May 12 at a price ranging from HK $5.71 to HK $5.79 per share, involving a capital of 11.5037 million yuan. On 11 May, 1 million shares were repurchased at a price ranging from $5.99 to $6.04 per share, involving an investment of $6.017 million.
Comments: big buybacks indicate that management thinks the company is undervalued. The company's cornerstone business is expected to maintain a growth rate of 15% to 20% over the next few years. The company is one of Huawei concept core stocks, with the promotion of Hongmeng system, the future cornerstone business revenue will increase steadily; cloud intelligence business as the company's second growth line. The group of key customers is expanding steadily, and the cloud intelligence business is growing rapidly. In 2021, the company's cloud intelligence business revenue reached 5.31 billion yuan, an increase of 62% over the same period last year, accounting for 28.8% of revenue (YoY+5.6pcts). According to IDC, China soft International ranks second in the cloud management services market. With the improvement of the epidemic and the gradual release of major customer budgets, the company is expected to increase its growth rate with the help of a diversified customer system represented by Huawei.
4, quack feeding (00520) received funds from the south and increased by 8.31%.
Since share prices hit a year's low in mid-March, Jiayu (00520) has received a sustained net inflow of funds from Hong Kong stocks, with the proportion of North Water positions rising from 7.15 per cent to 10.27 per cent from March 15 to May 11, according to the Stock Exchange.
Comments: breast-feeding food has a rapid development, the main seasoning of breast-feeding food has been sold in nearly 40, 000 terminal outlets across the country, creating 131 million yuan in revenue. With the rapid increase in the number of dealers of breast-feeding food, it is expected to become a new growth point outside the restaurant. The company updated the menu, and the performance continued to grow at a high speed. After the new menu was launched, it was welcomed by consumers, and the number of set menu orders also increased by about 30% compared with the same period last year. In the past two years, driven by the epidemic, the hot pot consumption scene has changed from going out to staying at home, and the demand for takeout has increased significantly. "Home hot pot" has become a new consumption trend. Industry experts estimate that the domestic market scale of "home prefabricated catering" represented by home hot pot has reached trillions. Some restaurants in Shanghai have resumed work, and 2 restaurants and 5 stores have resumed work, offering group buying of hot pot and tea drinks and Meituan takeout business, covering the main areas of Shanghai. The group purchase business is so hot that tea takeout has been booked until the middle of May.