When Federal Reserve Chairman Powell personally admitted that there was no guarantee of a "soft landing" for the US economy, the possibility of a "hard landing" rose sharply. Morgan Stanley's wealth management department saidThe recent US debt and US stock markets reflect investors' concerns about the US economy.

Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of JPMorgan Wealth Management, said on Monday: "the downturn in the stock and bond markets has developed into a classic cyclical bear market rather than a simple adjustment. The Fed's policy will still accelerate the pace of tightening, balance sheet reduction is on the agenda and is about to be implemented, and inflation appears to be stubborn. Investors are turning their attention to the possibility of growth panic. "

Morgan Stanley believes there is a 27 per cent chance of a recession in the US over the next 12 months, up 5 per cent from March. Lisa Shalett believes that the Institute for supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is also a "worrying signal" because it shows that growth is slowing.

This year, stocks and bonds were affected as the Fed tried to fight inflation by raising interest rates. "A portfolio of equities and bonds will fall by more than 10% in the past six months, the worst experience since the financial crisis," Lisa Shalett wrote. With the inflation struggle now going on seriously, the Fed's policy system has become tough, and rising interest rates will always suppress the market. "

The New York Fed said on Monday that its Imperial State business health index, which measures manufacturing activity in New York, plunged 36.2 points to minus 11.6 points in May.

Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, said in an interview that the Fed is raising interest rates to control inflation, or to achieve a so-called soft landing. But the market is skeptical and is trying to figure out whether the Fed can make a soft landing or whether it has made a policy mistake.

Ed Clissold predicts that the market is likely to continue to show high volatility in the coming weeks, while "testing" recent lows to determine the extent to which the sell-off is likely to be "exhausted". The market's narrative of the future is skewed towards recession, and if so, investors will increase the proportion of bonds in their portfolios to avoid risk, and asset diversification still works.

In terms of allocation, Ed Clissold said he reduced his equity holdings, increased his cash holdings and held "market-weighted" bonds as investors' concerns about inflation began to shift to "growth concerns".

Lisa Shalett said that in an iconic bear market, the negative catalyst is not only higher interest rates and lower valuation multiples, but also a real shift in earnings growth momentum. At this stage, the balance sheet strength Xiaobai Maimai Inc market was subject to more rigorous scrutiny.

Hunter Hayes, a portfolio manager at Intrepid Capital who invests mainly in high-yield corporate bonds, said in a telephone interview on Monday that he had increased some corporate debt positions by 1.16% in the past few months and expected their business to hold up well during the economic downturn.

Jeff Buchbinder, equity strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in an email on Monday: "the earnings season in the first quarter is stable in any way, but judging from recent market behavior, it is clear that market participants pay little attention to it. This is a macro-driven market, so positive macro developments, good news on inflation, may be needed to reverse the stock market. "

Morgan Stanley's US economic research team has just cut US economic growth by 100bp to 2.6 per cent. Morgan Stanley said that although the goal is a soft landing, the Fed, under pressure to control inflation, will accelerate the pace of monetary tightening, giving too little room for economic growth, and various factors in the global market are complex. including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the disturbance of the epidemic, which will create more problems. In short, the global economy will slow faster than predicted.