"Daily Research selection" closely follows the latest research trends of institutions, insights and combs the views of the most representative big cities, industries and individual stocks, provides Niu you with third-party institutional analysis and rating reference, and helps Niu you to provide an overview of investment banking trends. Easy to grasp investment opportunities!
Focus Today
CITIC: it is expected that April will be the low point for the whole year, and the overall economy will enter the recovery range from May.
Guosheng Securities: economic fundamentals are stable and improving, and the stock market may open up space this week.
Central Plains Securities: the overall stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the future, but we can focus on undervalued blue chips.
Soochow Securities: the market is still in the process of overfalling and rebounding.
Xiaomo: lowering the interest rate on the first home loan will help improve affordability, and it is more crucial to restore the confidence of home buyers.
CITIC: the tight pattern of coal supply is difficult to change, and companies with low valuations are allocated for bargains.
Everbright Securities: revaluation of first-tier airport companies and airlines is a deterministic event
Galaxy Securities: the follow-up pig price is expected to continue the shock upward trend.
Guojin Securities: industrial upgrading + domestic substitution, pharmaceutical supplement ushered in high-quality development
CITIC: portable energy storage is convenient, and the market is high.
CICC: lower BABA target price as core e-commerce and cloud computing valuation centers move downwards
Macquarie: reiterate that JD.com Group-SW is the first choice for e-commerce stocks, with a target price of HK $396.
Daiwa: slightly lower Haier Smart Home's target price to HK $31.70, rating "buy"
Morgan Stanley lowered the target price of COSCO seaport to HK $6.2, with a rating of "in step with the market".
CICC: maintain Man Wah's "outperform industry" rating, cut the target price by 38% to HK $10
Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper
I. Macro general trend
CITIC: it is expected that April will be the low point for the whole year, and the overall economy will enter the recovery range from May.
CITIC reported that due to the agglomeration epidemic in some key cities in the mainland in April, which had a great impact on economic operation, the year-on-year growth rate of various economic indicators in April was generally weaker than the previous value. However, judging from the latest situation, economic and social operation has gradually recovered. On the one hand, the number of new confirmed cases has dropped significantly, on the other hand, the transportation difficulties that previously restricted the production of enterprises have also been effectively alleviated. At the same time, under the guidance of the Politburo meeting held on April 29, the policy of "steady growth" has also continued to move forward, so it is expected that April will be the economic low for the whole year, while economic indicators such as industrial production and investment in fixed assets will improve significantly since May, and the relevant indicators of consumption and employment are also expected to improve month-on-month, and the overall economy will enter the recovery range from May.
Guosheng Securities: economic fundamentals are stable and improving, and the stock market may open up space this week.
Guosheng Securities said that despite some adverse effects of the April epidemic, the fundamentals of China's stable and long-term improvement in the economy have not changed, and the stock market still has the conditions to rebound in the near future. Operationally, it is still necessary to control the overall position and be suitable for low suction before the market makes an effective upward breakthrough. "steady growth" in the post-epidemic era will become the main logic driving the operation of the market, paying attention to the low valuation, offensive and defensive real estate and infrastructure chain. benefiting from the gradual improvement of the domestic epidemic situation of consumer core assets, it is suggested that in combination with performance-to-price ratio, appropriate layout of logistics, military industry, semiconductors and other theme sectors.
Central Plains Securities: the overall stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the future, but we can focus on undervalued blue chips.
Zhongyuan Securities said that the overall trend of the number of new cases across the country and in Shanghai has continued to decline, and various localities have accelerated the pace of orderly return to work. The overall stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the future, while we still need to pay close attention to the changes in policy, capital and external factors. The bank advises investors to focus on investment opportunities in industries such as automobiles, new energy, real estate and semiconductors in the short term, while the middle line continues to focus on investment opportunities in undervalued blue chips.
Soochow Securities: the market is still in the process of overfalling and rebounding.
Soochow Securities believes that at present, the market is still in the process of overfalling and rebounding, and the overall risk appetite of the market is still in a low position because of the trend decline in overseas markets, which makes some successful profit-making funds choose short-term stop-profit actions. From an operational point of view, investors can still maintain a low position, choose the relatively popular varieties in the oversold rebound for short-term operation, and wait for the end of the market adjustment to gradually increase the position.
II. Industry plate
Xiaomo: lowering the interest rate on the first home loan will help improve affordability, and it is more crucial to restore the confidence of home buyers.
The people's Bank of China cut the interest rate on its first home loan by 20 basis points. Xiaomo reported that the policy will help improve the affordability of housing in the mainland, but mortgage interest rates have fallen by 50 to 60 basis points since the fourth quarter of last year, but sales are still weak. In order to promote the recovery of the mainland property market, it is more critical to restore the confidence of home buyers. The bank said the market would prefer to see more demand-side easing, especially to stimulate demand for property swaps, more signs of stable property prices and the unblocking of epidemic prevention measures. The bank believes that the share price of inner housing stocks may react positively, but a sustainable rebound requires a longer-term sales recovery. The preferred stock of the bank is still$China Overseas Land & Investment (00688.HK) $、$China Resources Land (01109.HK) $、$Longfor Group (00960.HK) $、$Vanke overseas (01036.HK) $; the property management stock is optimistic$China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (01209.HK) $、$Poly property (06049.HK) $和$China property (02669.HK) $。
CITIC: the tight pattern of coal supply is difficult to change, and companies with low valuations are allocated for bargains.
CITIC pointed out that April data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that there was still a bottleneck in domestic coal production, and short-term high-frequency data showed that imported coal prices were upside down again in May, and domestic coal supply was still tight. Although demand is still weak in April, there is a high probability of improvement in the future with the easing of the local epidemic and the landing of related policies. Looking forward to the whole year, the industry boom is likely to improve as a whole, and the performance expectations of subsequent listed companies are still likely to be revised upwards. at present, low-valued companies can be configured for bargains.
Everbright Securities: revaluation of first-tier airport companies and airlines is a deterministic event
Everbright Securities believes that the domestic epidemic has been repeated, the demand for air passenger transport has been adversely affected, and the growth logic and location advantages of first-tier airport companies and airlines have not changed essentially as a result of the epidemic. With the continuous development of COVID-19 's vaccine / treatment technology, the demand for air passenger transport will gradually recover, the revaluation of first-tier airport companies and airlines is a deterministic event, and the short-term fluctuation of stock prices does not change the rising trend of the airport sector. maintain the industry's "overweight" rating.
Galaxy Securities: the follow-up pig price is expected to continue the shock upward trend.
Galaxy Securities said that pig prices have continued to rise since the bottom in late March, and we estimated through the sample that the number of fat pigs in April 22 began to store a downward trend, superimposed on the high point of breeding sows in June 21 corresponding to the high point of 9-10 months later. Double verification is basically the same. At the same time, we counted the seasonal changes of pig prices in the past 15 years and found that pig prices showed a month-on-month upward trend from May to August. Combining the above two points, we believe that the follow-up pig price is expected to continue the shock upward trend.
Guojin Securities: industrial upgrading + domestic substitution, pharmaceutical supplement ushered in high-quality development
Guojin Securities pointed out that the policy environment has been continuously optimized to promote the high-quality development of the industry. In recent years, the implementation of generic drug consistency evaluation, related approval and collection of pharmaceutical excipients has continuously accelerated the upgrading of domestic pharmaceutical excipients, promoted industry integration, and improved the speed of domestic substitution. In addition, the development plan of the pharmaceutical industry in the 14th five-year Plan clearly points out that the standard system and quality norms in the fields of medicinal excipients and packaging materials will be further standardized so as to continuously improve the level of pharmaceutical manufacturing in our country. The growth space of the head production enterprise of medicinal excipients is improved and the growth is determined.
CITIC: portable energy storage is convenient, and the market is high.
CITIC believes that portable energy storage, as a branch of the energy storage market, is convenient and is mainly used in outdoor activities and temporary electricity preparation at home. With the improvement of product maturity and the decline in energy storage costs, the industry began to expand gradually around 2018. The global market in 2021 is about 11.1 billion yuan, an increase of 161.3% over the same period last year. The industry is expected to reach 88.2 billion yuan by 2026, a seven-fold increase in five years.
III. Individual stocks
CICC: downgrade$BABA-SW (09988.HK) $Target price, due to core e-commerce and cloud computing valuation center down
China International Capital Corporation said that since March, the epidemic has had a great impact on logistics compliance, supply chain and consumers, and BABA's sales are expected to decline in April compared with the same period last year. Due to the downward shift of the core e-commerce and cloud computing valuation center, the$BABA (BABA.US) $和$BABA-SW (09988.HK) $The target prices were all cut by 11 per cent to US $147 and HK $143 respectively, maintaining the company's "outperform industry" rating. The report points out that BABA's announcement of the 618 measures to help businesses in 2022, although it may affect the interests of the platform in the short term, is conducive to the recovery of businesses and the building of consumer confidence. In view of the disturbance of the epidemic, BABA's fiscal year 2023 income and non-GAAP net profit forecasts were both cut by 2% to 918.1 billion yuan and 133.1 billion yuan.
Macquarie: reiterate$JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK) $The first choice for e-commerce stocks, with a target price of HK $396
Macquarie reported that it gave JD.com Group-SW an "outperform" rating and reiterated it was the preferred stock in the e-commerce sector, with a target price of HK $396.
Daiwa: slight drop$Haier Smart Home (06690.HK) $Target price to HK $31.7, rating "buy"
Daiwa Research News pointed out that Haier Smart Home's management revealed that although affected by the epidemic, channel inventory was still above normal, so the company's mainland revenue grew by about 6 to 7 per cent year-on-year in April, slowing by 4 to 5 per cent on a monthly basis. In terms of production, 66 factories in the mainland are still operating normally and are not affected. The company's overseas business revenue grew 7% to 8% year-on-year in April, and expects the gross profit margin of its overseas business to be relatively flat this year, and expects stable demand in major markets such as the United States, Europe and Australia. Daiwa believes that Haier Smart Home remains the industry's first choice and reiterated its "buy" rating, but lowered its target price slightly from HK $31.80 to HK $31.70 to reflect the impact of the devaluation of the renminbi.
Dama downgradeCosco seaborne port (01199.HK) $The target price is HK $6.2, with a rating of "in step with the market".
Morgan Stanley published a report that estimated the net profit of Cosco seaport at US $439 million in 2024, cut its profit forecast for 2022 by 3 per cent, reduced the Beta coefficient from 100% to 0.8 times, extended the valuation extension to the end of 2023, and lowered the target price by 4% from HK $6.42 to HK $6.2. the rating is "in line with the market".
CICC: maintain$Man Wah (01999.HK) $"outperform industry" rating, target price reduced by 38% to HK $10
CICC said in a research report that it maintained Man Wah's "outperform industry" rating, cut its net profit forecast for fiscal 2023 by 11 per cent to HK $2.74 billion, taking into account the impact on offline consumption and logistics and transportation since April, and introduced a net profit forecast of HK $3.289 billion for fiscal year 2023. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 times earnings for the fiscal year 2023. In addition, due to the recent downward market risk appetite and earnings forecast adjustment, the target price has been cut by 38% to HK $10, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times earnings in fiscal year 24, which is 43% higher than the current share price.
Edit / Jeffrey