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北控水务(00371.HK):估值重估

Beikong Water (00371.HK): Valuation Revaluation

國泰君安國際 ·  Apr 23, 2022 00:00  · Researches

According to the 14th five-year Plan for Urban sewage treatment and Resource Utilization jointly issued by the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Housing and Construction on June 6 last year, the centralized collection rate of urban domestic sewage in China will reach more than 70% by 2025; the sewage treatment capacity of cities and cities basically meets the needs of economic and social development, and the sewage treatment rate of urban areas is more than 95%; sewage treatment in water environment sensitive areas is basically up to Grade A discharge standard. The utilization rate of reclaimed water in water-deficient cities at the prefectural level and above has reached more than 25%. During the 14th five-year Plan period, 80,000 kilometers of sewerage pipes will be added or renovated; the sewage treatment capacity will be increased by 20 million cubic meters per day; the production capacity of newly built, rebuilt and reclaimed water will not be less than 15 million cubic meters per day; and the new sludge (sewage sludge with 80% moisture content) will not be less than 20,000 tons per day.

The growth of water supply supply is beneficial to the north control.

On 3 August last year, the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Housing and Construction further issued the "regulations on the standardized Management of Urban and Rural Water supply," explicitly comparing the standard of urban water supply with the rate of return of state 10-year vouchers for the first time, thus making the mechanism for the formation of water supply more commercialized. Guotai Junan believes that at a time when new sewage and water supply projects are still increasing, and sewage treatment and water supply are growing rapidly, it will be good for a long time for China's largest integrated water treatment collection, north water control and other enterprises. Last year, the revenue of Beijing Water Control Services increased by 9.9% to 27.9 billion yuan, the annual profit per share increased by 0.3% to 4.2 billion yuan, and the profit per share fell 0.4% to 0.414 yuan. During the period, the revenue from sewage and reclaimed water treatment services increased by 30.2% to 8.1 billion yuan, and that from water supply services increased by 13.5% to 3.1 billion yuan. In addition, revenue from construction services fell 4.1 per cent to 12.6 billion yuan, of which revenue from construction of integrated management projects fell by 28.8 per cent to 3.1 billion yuan, mainly due to the company's lack of undertaking new water environment control projects; revenue from the construction, construction, construction and transfer (BOT) project increased by 7.9 per cent to 9.5 billion yuan. The company's revenue from technology and query services rose 24.8% to 4.1 billion yuan, mainly driven by strong demand in the market.

The market share is expected to increase by more than 10%.

During the period, the overall gross profit margin fell 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 37.5%, mainly due to a decline in gross profit margins for construction services and technical and query services. Last year, the total daily capacity increased by 2.761 million tons, compared with 0.9 percent more in the previous year. By the end of last year, the total capacity was 44.886 million tons per day. Northward water control is already the largest sewage treatment enterprise in China, but the share of sewage treatment in the market last year was 6%. The company plans to increase its market share to 10% and 15% respectively by 2025 and 2030, so the bank is still optimistic that the company has a lot of room for growth. The valuation of Beijing Water Management is close to an all-time low, and it is expected that after the introduction of the investment model, the company's operating capital flow will gradually improve and the turnover rate will also be reduced. Guotai Junan believes that after the profit margin has gradually improved and the operating capital flow has continued to increase, the company has had a revaluation, holding the target mark of 3.7 yuan and "ranking" level. In addition, the Bank mentioned the company's investment investment, including the slower-than-expected increase in new production capacity, the lower-than-expected average growth rate of water treatment, and the exchange loss caused by the people's net worth.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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