"Daily Research selection" closely follows the latest research trends of institutions, insights and combs the views of the most representative big cities, industries and individual stocks, provides Niu you with third-party institutional analysis and rating reference, and helps Niu you to provide an overview of investment banking trends. Easy to grasp investment opportunities!
Focus Today
Ping an Securities: steady growth signal is of greater significance
Central Plains Securities: market sentiment recovers and is expected to fluctuate upward
Guosheng Securities: the current market has entered a shock bottoming cycle
Galaxy Securities: continue to recommend the industry sector of "making progress in the midst of stability"
Zhao Zheng International: the trough of the automobile industry is over, and most stocks have low valuations.
Citic Construction Investment: the reduction of mortgage interest rates sends a positive signal, and the policy remains the same.
Tianfeng Securities: it is recommended to focus on the downstream of the cycle and consumption
CITIC: the phosphorus chemical industry plate is booming, and its performance has high certainty.
Lyon: lower Tencent's target price to HK $600, rating "buy"
BoCom: maintain Kuaishou Technology-W "buy" rating, optimistic about the growth potential of e-commerce and advertising business
Oriental Securities: maintain Hua Hong Semiconductor's "buy" rating with a target price of HK $38.78
Haitong: Yuyunxiang Technology "better than the Big Market" rating
Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper
I. Macro-market
Ping an Securities: this round of policy adjustment helps stabilize market confidence in economic growth
Ping an Securities pointed out that this round of policy adjustment can be regarded as a structural interest rate cut policy, although the intensity is limited, but the signal is of great significance, and the further opening of the policy toolbox will help stabilize market confidence in economic growth. This real estate policy signal helps to stabilize capital market expectations, the policy signal is worth paying attention to, and the market rebound is expected to continue. Structurally, the real estate sector, which was less than expected by the policy and has retreated greatly since April, as well as some building materials industry chains are expected to usher in a short-term rebound. Infrastructure, medicine, and consumer performance will still benefit relatively under the improvement of the epidemic and stable growth economic policies, and the oversold-off layout of growth sectors such as new energy and semiconductors, which represent the momentum of the new economy, is still an important direction.
Central Plains Securities: market sentiment recovers and is expected to fluctuate upward
Zhongyuan Securities pointed out that the epidemic situation is improving, policy support is increasing, foreign trade is expected to stabilize, and inflationary pressure has risen, but it is still in a mild range. Under the epidemic, corporate credit has fallen, and central bank support may continue to increase. The recovery of market sentiment is expected to fluctuate upward. It is suggested that we should pay attention to investment opportunities in areas such as stable growth, price increases, consumption and exports.
Guosheng Securities: the current market has entered a shock bottoming cycle
Guosheng Securities believes that the current market has entered a shock bottoming cycle, under the joint action of multiple factors, the short-term index may be difficult to have a big performance. However, the current phased pullback of many sectors is close to 40%, and high-quality stocks with a decline of more than 50% can also be found everywhere, which is the window of opportunity for low-level layout high-quality stocks. In operation, short-term light index, heavy individual stocks. Start from the fundamentals to excavate the high-quality leaders that have been mistakenly killed by the market. The continuous increase of "steady growth" and counter-cyclical regulation will bring many opportunities for block structural investment. On the one hand, we should focus on the market opportunities brought about by policy investment in infrastructure, such as transportation construction, upgrading of industrial parks, water conservancy and environmental protection, while the other can tap the investment opportunities brought about by the overfall and rebound of high-quality stocks mistakenly killed by the market.
II. Industry plate
Galaxy Securities: continue to recommend the industry sector of "making progress in the midst of stability"
Galaxy Securities reported that in the process of "bottoming out", the market will gradually stabilize market expectations and rotate the industry in the short term. at the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in the macro environment, especially the impact of the domestic epidemic on market expectations, and to pay timely attention to the impact of international geopolitics on commodity prices. For some time to come, we will continue to recommend the industry sector that "strives for progress in the midst of stability". "stable" direction: real estate sector, high-rated credit debt, infrastructure construction, epidemic related medical testing plate, "enter" direction: platform economy, domestic science and technology substitution, etc.
Zhao Zheng International: the trough of the automobile industry is over, and most stocks have low valuations.
China Merchants (International) reported that according to the data of the China Automobile Association, due to the severe impact of the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta, industry sales in April were 1.18 million, down 47.6% from January to April, down 47.1% from January to April, down 12.1% from a year earlier. The bank believes that the lowest point in the industry is over, and the supply chain is expected to recover partially in May and mostly in June, which is the best time for the layout of automobile stocks to gain phased gains for the whole year. Most of the auto stocks are already at the relative bottom, and it is recommended to gradually absorb them in batches.
In terms of stock selection, the bank gives consideration to multiple strategies: 1) High flexibility: recommendation$Great Wall Motor (02333.HK) $、$Geely Automobile (00175.HK) $Short-term stock price repair is explosive and is the beneficiary of the potential purchase tax reduction policy; 2) High growth: recommend pure new energy car companies$Byd Company Limited (01211.HK) $、$Li Auto Inc.-W (02015.HK) $High certainty of growth but disturbed by the style of the peripheral market; 3) robust strategy: recommended parts leader$Fuyao Glass Industry Group (03606.HK) $Luxury car dealers$Zhongsheng Group (00881.HK) $。
Citic Construction Investment: the reduction of mortgage interest rates sends a positive signal, and the policy remains the same.
Citic Construction Investment pointed out that after the central bank and the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission lowered the lower limit of the first suite mortgage loan interest rate, the current interest rate has more room for decline than the lower limit. The lower limit of interest rates is a positive response to the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 29 to support the improvement of real estate policies and the demand for rigid and improved housing. Lowering mortgage interest rates to improve home buyers' expectations has a positive effect on sales improvement. Although the cut in mortgage rates will have limited savings on the average monthly expenditure of home buyers, it has sent a positive signal of support, helping to improve buyers' expectations, thereby further stimulating sales. Under the background of "steady growth", the real estate industry, as a pillar industry of the national economy, is expected to get more support. We believe that the trend of real estate policy will remain unchanged, and with the gradual control of the epidemic and the gradual recovery of production and operation, the effect of the policy is expected to accelerate the landing. Reiterate the bullish view of the real estate sector remains the same.
Tianfeng Securities: it is recommended to focus on the downstream of the cycle and consumption
Tianfeng Securities said that in the short term, on the macro side, interest rate cuts are expected to be strong next week, and market risk appetite is expected to increase. In May, the model plate configuration suggested that we should pay attention to the downstream of the cycle and consumption; according to the profit forecast of analysts looking forward to the prosperity of the industry in 2022, the industries with the highest expected profit growth are the rare metals in the animal husbandry and battery industry chain.
CITIC: the phosphorus chemical industry plate is booming, and its performance has high certainty.
CITIC's latest research report said that phosphorus has both "food security" and "energy" attributes, and the high boom is expected to last in the medium to long term; at the same time, phosphorus itself has resource barriers, the basic market is stable, medium-and short-term, and the performance is highly deterministic. At present, phosphorus chemical enterprises are actively upstream and downstream to improve and expand the industrial chain, and there is room for further improvement in plate valuation. it is suggested to actively layout the phosphorus chemical sector with both fundamentals and industry β, especially under the integrated layout. enterprises rich in mineral resources will benefit more.
III. Individual stocks
Lyon: downgrade$Tencent (00700.HK) $Target price to HK $600, rating "buy"
Lyon issued a report lowering Tencent's target price from HK $665 to HK $600, reiterating its "buy" rating and lowering its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2022 and 2023 by 3 per cent and 4 per cent respectively. The bank expects Tencent's first-quarter results to be weak, with total revenue rising 5.4 per cent year-on-year to 142.7 billion yuan (the same below), while adjusted EBIT fell 11.6 per cent to 37.8 billion yuan. As for the first quarter, domestic game revenue is expected to be flat, while international game revenue will grow healthily by 19% on a year-on-year basis; advertising demand is under pressure under the weak economy and the closure of some cities. Revenue growth in financial technology and cloud computing is also expected to slow.
BoCom: maintenance$Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK) $"Buy" rating, optimistic about the growth potential of e-commerce and advertising business
BoCom International Research reported that to maintain Kuaishou Technology e-commerce in 2022 900.9 billion yuan GMV expected to remain unchanged, optimistic about the growth potential of internal circulation advertising revenue. Maintain the target price of HK $113, corresponding to 4 times the price-to-sales ratio. Maintain a "buy" rating. The bank pointed out that the company recently held an e-commerce "gravitation conference" to share e-commerce business progress and future development strategy. Trusting e-commerce is still the underlying logic of Kuaishou Technology e-commerce, and Kuaishou Technology will focus on improving the "experience-price ratio." that is, while providing cheaper prices, pay attention to the enhancement of user service experience, but also refer to the company's new "fast brand" support program. Plans to invest 23 billion yuan in 2022 to support more than 500 fast brand benchmarking Improve the ability of service providers, enable fast brand incubation, cold start of new businesses, and help old businesses realize the commercial transition.
Ping an Securities:$Haidilao International Holding (06862.HK) $It is still the best catering in the country.ChainOne, the first "recommended" rating.
According to a research report by Ping an Securities, Haidilao International Holding is still one of the best catering chain brands in China, and it is also one of the first choices for ordinary residents to dine together. The epidemic and counter-trend expansion have led to short-term losses and falling valuations. However, in the medium and long term, its single-store model and brand value remain strong. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the progress of business data repair and new business exploration brought about by post-epidemic recovery and enterprise reform. The bank forecasts that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 44.317 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), 51.507 billion yuan and 59.595 billion yuan respectively, and its net profit will be 891 million yuan, 2.701 billion yuan and 4.154 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS 0.16,0.48,0.75 yuan respectively, and the current stock price PE will be 71.6,23.6,15.4 times respectively.
Oriental Securities: maintenance$Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) $"Buy" rating with a target price of HK $38.78
According to a research report issued by Oriental Securities, Hua Hong Semiconductor's "buy" rating is maintained and its net asset per share is expected to be US $2.47 per share in 2022-24, with a target price of HK $38.78. The company's quarterly results hit a record high, with a net profit of $100 million (up 211% year-on-year), another 12-inch line in line with expectations and full capacity.
Haitong: to$Yunxiang Technology (02131.HK) $"better than the market" rating
According to a research report released by Haitong, Yunxiang Technology is rated as "better than the market" and its revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 40.89 yuan 52.84 / 6.694 billion yuan, with a fair value range of HK $4.81-6.01 Hong Kong dollars. The bank believes that short video traffic represented by Douyin and Kuaishou Technology is still in a high growth period, the co-production platform built by the company already has industrial video production capacity, and the Lianshan SaaS platform has been commercialized, which is expected to continue to improve the efficiency of short video delivery in the future.
Edit / Jeffrey