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集体抄底! 全球头号对冲基金桥水加仓阿里75%,大摩称MSCI中国进入熊市最后阶段

Collective bottom-hunting! Qiaoshui, the world's top hedge fund, added 75% to Ali's position. Damo says MSCI China has entered the final stage of a bear market

中國基金報 ·  May 16, 2022 08:33

Source: China Fund Daily

Author: green

As the disclosure of the US stock position report by institutional investors at the end of the first quarter is drawing to a close, the holdings of US-listed stocks of global investment institutions have surfaced. Data show that the world's number one hedge fund Bridgewater significantly increased its positions in Chinese-listed stocks in the first quarter. Chinese expert Mingji International "bottom" Pinduoduo and KE Holdings Inc. holding.

Top private equity freshwater spring Hong Kong subsidiary-freshwater spring (Hong Kong) newly entered photovoltaic module leader JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd. With the improvement of the epidemic, some global investment institutions have expressed a "bullish" view on the Chinese market. Morgan Stanley said that MSCI China has entered the final stage of a bear market, and Fidelity International also said that it is optimistic about the cost-effectiveness of the Chinese market.

The world's number one hedge fund increases its position BABA 75%

The Bridge Water Fund is one of some firmly bullish global institutions in the volatility of the Chinese market in 2022.

A few days ago, Qiao Shui submitted the 13F position form at the end of the first quarter to the SEC. The bridge water fund, the world's largest hedge fund, led the way in 2022, with a pure alpha strategy with a volatility of 18 per cent, with a gain of more than 20 per cent in the first four months of this year.

Let's take a look at the position of Qiaoshui Fund in US stocks in the first quarter.

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Source: organized according to Whalewisdom

As of March 31, the market capitalization of the Qiaomimei stock portfolio was $24.8 billion, compared with $17.2 billion at the end of the previous quarter. As a global macro strategy fund, Qiaoshui's US stock portfolio accounts for only a small portion of the total assets.

In the first quarter, Qiaoshui's U. S. stock portfolio has changed a lot from the end of the previous quarter.

By the end of the first quarter, emerging market ETF VWO had become the largest stock after increasing its positions by 35 per cent. Three of the top 10 heavy stocks are ETF, which tracks emerging market indices, and all three emerging market ETF positions were heavily increased in the first quarter.

In addition, in the first quarter, the Qiaoshui Fund increased its positions by 75% to BABA, the sixth largest stock, 85% to Pinduoduo, the 20th largest stock, and Baidu, Inc., the 24th largest stock.

In addition to ETF, as of the end of the first quarter, the top 25 heavy stocks were dominated by consumer and health stocks. Among the top 25 heavy stocks, Medtronic PLC is newly built. The largest increase in the top 25 heavy stocks was Pfizer Inc, with a margin of 352 per cent.

In this round of inflation in the United States, Qiaoshui predicted early that inflation is persistent. Bridgewater made a judgment in early 2022: us inflation is mainly driven by demand rather than supply disruption. At that time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine had not yet broken out. Many investors hope that inflation will ease after the relief of the supply chain. But because Qiaoshui believes that inflation is caused by demand, inflation will continue even if the supply side improves.

Adding weight to emerging markets is also an investment move that distinguishes Bridgewater from other institutions. This may be based on Bridgewater's concern that it will be difficult for the US economy to make a soft landing.

Judging from the performance of the emerging market index alone, the net worth of VWO (tracking emerging market index) has fallen by 17.47% since 2022. Bridgewater may hold emerging market indices to hedge risk and spread risk in the US market.

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Source: ETF.com

According to the latest Qiaoshui study, it is becoming more and more difficult for the United States to achieve two goals at the same time: one is to control inflation at a certain level, and the other is to achieve a certain level of economic growth.

This is also the reason why Qiaoshui believes that there is still a need to invest in China, which is necessary as an allocation to diversify US risks.

The Bridge Water Fund increased its positions in Chinese stocks, including BABA and Pinduoduo, in the first quarter. It is understood that the private equity funds in Qiaoshui have also made positive returns so far. This is due to the round-the-clock allocation of bridge water, stock and debt cooperation, in the context of a substantial adjustment of A shares, still achieved positive returns.

Mingji International increased KE Holdings Inc. 's position by 116%.

Another Chinese expert, Mingji International, also increased its positions in some Chinese stocks in the first quarter.

图片

Organize according to Whalewisdom information

At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the US stock portfolio had a market capitalization of $722 million, compared with $958 million at the end of the previous quarter.

By the end of the first quarter, the largest heavy position in the US stock portfolio was Yum China, which increased its position by 4 per cent in the first quarter. The fourth largest stock in the US stock portfolio is Pinduoduo, which increased its position by 60 per cent in the first quarter. The fifth largest stock in the US stock portfolio is JD.com. The 11th largest heavy stock in the US stock portfolio is Bilibili Inc., which increased its position by 45% in the first quarter, while KE Holdings Inc., the 14th largest stock, increased its position by 116% in the first quarter.

Mingji International reduced its holdings of BeiGene, Ltd. in the first quarter.

Mingji International is a boutique-style investment agency, it has invested in China for a long time, and its Chinese funds issued overseas have performed well. The institution often appears on the list of the top 10 shareholders of small and medium-sized listed companies. This also shows its style. Many global institutions invest in blue-chip white horses focused by China, and Mingji International also has more in-depth research on small and medium-sized stocks.

Andy Rothman, a recent investment strategist, believes that there is a relatively optimistic attitude towards China. Rothman first believes that the epidemic in China is expected to improve soon. First of all, the absolute number of infections is small (lower than that of the United States and some European countries). Second, most infections are asymptomatic, which means that there is no run on medical resources. Finally, although the number of infections has increased rapidly in the previous period, it has declined recently.

Rothman expects the government to introduce strong support policies in the future. He believes that China's economy will enter a rebound cycle after the third quarter. In particular, he believes that the real estate industry will also enter a rebound cycle. Rothman believes that last year's downturn in the real estate sector was based on policy expectations and was not driven by supply and demand data.

Tanshui Spring (Hong Kong) Kakura Jingke Energy (ADR)

图片

Organize according to whalewisdom information

Tamsui Spring (Hong Kong), a Hong Kong subsidiary of China's top private equity company, also submitted its position in the US stock portfolio to the SEC a few days ago. As of March 31, Tamsui Springs (Hong Kong) had $6.9 billion in regulated assets, but only a few tens of millions of dollars in the US stock portfolio. The size of regulated assets includes the total size of funds under management (investments in US stocks and other asset classes in other markets) and leveraged financing, which is greater than or equal to the size of asset management (AUM).

Data show that Tanshui Spring emptied 34 stocks in the first quarter, nearly one new stock. The new one is JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd, the global leader in photovoltaic modules. And the newcomer is the largest heavy stock. In the context of high inflation in Europe and the United States, energy security has been put on the agenda, new energy, clean energy once again gathered consensus.

In the first quarter, Tanshuiquan (Hong Kong) also increased its stake in KE Holdings Inc. Holdings. Reduced holdings of Pinduoduo and graffiti technology.

A few days ago, Tanshui Spring issued a view that it is appropriate to find the opportunities conceived in pessimism. Fanshuiquan said in the research report that if China's economy is compared to a spring, it is under a lot of pressure at the moment, but when the epidemic is brought under control, there will be no marginal additional pressure at the industry policy level, and the "spring" itself will have the flexibility to recover. Superimposed policy stimulus will be more conducive to economic repair. When evaluating investment opportunities, try to avoid the misunderstanding that rising is becoming more optimistic and falling is becoming more pessimistic.

Danshuiquan pointed out that focus on outstanding leading enterprises to ensure solid research action. Taking the quarterly report as the observation window, we can see that under the same difficult environment faced by the industry, the leading enterprises have demonstrated their strong resilience and laid a solid foundation for the elasticity of business performance after the difficult period. In the complex market environment, it is even more necessary to keep the action of investing in research undistorted, and the essence is to do the process of investing in research in a solid manner in accordance with scientific working methods so as to improve the quality of research and decision-making.

Invest in the boutique Ariel to increase the position of Baidu, Inc.

Ariel, a Chicago-based value investment boutique, increased its position in Baidu, Inc., the third largest stock, in the first quarter. Ariel's U. S. stock portfolio has a market capitalization of about $11.273 billion, roughly the same as $11.863 billion at the end of the previous quarter. In the first quarter, it bought four new stocks, increased its holdings by 57, emptied two stocks and reduced its holdings by 44. The top ten heavy stock portfolios account for about 30%.

Ultra-long-term "science and technology catcher" Baiji increases the position of Trip.com

From the U. S. stock position tracking website Gurufocus information shows that ultra-long-term investment institutions Baiji in the first quarter of the new Cangyuan universe "Roblox", small and medium-sized Chinese stocks increased their positions in Trip.com.

Baiji is a world-renowned ultra-long-term investment institution, committed to mining and long-term investment in the most competitive, innovative and efficient high-quality enterprises around the world, with a position cycle of more than five years; the average investment holding cycle is close to 10 years.

The 13F report shows that at present, there are 498 stocks in the Baiji US stock portfolio, with total assets of about US $142.6 billion. In the position industry, cyclical consumption accounts for 26.32%; health care accounts for 23.81%; and the technology industry accounts for 21.47%.

The latest 13F report reveals that the company has substantially built its position in Roblox, the first share of Yuan Universe, and Adobe;, a veteran software company, has gradually reduced its position in Tesla, Inc.; in Chinese-listed stocks, it has slightly increased its position in Huirong Technology, Trip.com and other stocks; and iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited and the future have been cleared.

Morgan Stanley: MSCI China Index enters the end of Bear Market

According to statistics from Copley Fund Research, a fund position tracker, the allocation of global emerging market funds to China (including the mainland and Hong Kong) has decreased by the end of the first quarter of 2022 compared with the peak in 2020. However, there are great differences between different funds, there are still many well-known institutions' funds have adopted a high-allocation attitude. In addition, recently, some international organizations think that the situation is improving and the Chinese market is ushering in the dawn.

For example, Morgan Stanley published a report on A-share companies on May 10, saying that after a series of declines, the MSCI China index may be nearing the end of a bear market.

Citing data, Morgan Stanley pointed out that from February 17, 2021 to May 6, 2022, the MSCI China Index fell 51% in absolute terms. The MSCI China emerging Markets Index fell 32%.

But Morgan Stanley believes that the final phase of the bear market is full of twists and turns: macroeconomic weakness and pressure on corporate profits affected by the epidemic; at the same time, the Fed's contractionary policy and international geopolitical tensions will affect MSCI China's recent performance.

Compared with ADR and Hong Kong stocks, Morgan Stanley is optimistic about A shares because A shares can benefit from potential easing policies in the short term and are consistent with long-term growth opportunities (IT, industry, green economy, etc.). At the same time, China's recently officially launched individual pension plan also supports institutional participation in the market. Based on this, Morgan Stanley said it is optimistic about the following thematic opportunities: early oversold high-quality stocks, the launch of buyback-related companies and infrastructure-related sectors.

Almost at the same time, Fidelity International also issued a bullish report, saying that the performance-to-price ratio of the current allocation in the Chinese market has emerged.

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The translation is provided by third-party software.


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