Soda ash, ammonium chloride market to maintain a high boom. According to Baichuan Information, this week (2022.5.7-2022.5.12) returned after the festival, due to the domestic soda ash manufacturers received more orders before the festival, resulting in the tight price of soda ash goods, the latest price of soda ash 2874 yuan / ton, of which light soda ash manufacturers offer sporadically increased 100-150 yuan / ton; heavy soda ash manufacturers increased the new order by about 100 yuan / ton. During the week, the industry operating rate fluctuated, orders promoted some manufacturers to increase production actively, enterprise inventory continued to move down, and the supply of soda ash in some areas was tight. This week, the domestic ammonium chloride market is high up, the spot supply is tight, and the latest price of ammonium chloride is 1460 yuan / ton.
On the whole, the ammonium chloride market is sufficient, the downstream demand continues to follow up, and the urea market continues to rise, which is a good support for the ammonium chloride market.
Optimistic about the future market space of glyphosate, invest 500000 tons of intermediate double glyphosate project. On April 18, 2022, the company announced that it planned to build a 500,000 t / a double glyphosate production line in Guang'an with a total investment of about 12.5 billion yuan. at present, the project filing has been completed, and various preliminary work such as environmental assessment and energy assessment have been started, which is expected to be completed within 24 months after the start of construction. The main reasons for the company's production expansion are: 1, domestic GM policies have been launched, the future with the promotion of domestic GM crops will bring new demand for glyphosate; 2, domestic and foreign IDA production of glyphosate manufacturers are the company's potential downstream customers, the company's double glyphosate products with its cost and quality advantages, can replace the old production capacity of some manufacturers. 3. Glyphosate will replace paraquat, etc.
The 70,000-ton methionine project has been put into production, becoming the second domestic enterprise to realize the mass production of liquid methionine. The company's 70,000 t / a liquid methionine project reached the production and standard smoothly through trial production optimization and rectification, and was officially converted to production at the end of 2021, becoming the second domestic enterprise to realize liquid methionine mass production. In 2021, the domestic production capacity of converting methionine into solid methionine is about 530000 tons, and the actual output is 376900 tons. Compared with solid methionine, liquid methionine has obvious cost advantage, and it also has the good characteristics of mixing uniformity and not easy to separate. In addition, because liquid methionine is acidic, it can inhibit pathogenic bacteria such as salmonella and Escherichia coli in feed, which is in line with the development trend of feed industry.
Increase capital expenditure in the photovoltaic sector. In 2021, the company entered the photovoltaic industry by investing in photovoltaic wafers and photovoltaic module projects, and regarded it as the key development direction in the future. At the beginning of 2021, Chongqing 8GW photovoltaic packaging materials and products project was launched. The first phase of 1900t/d photovoltaic glass and 2GW photovoltaic module packaging project has completed plant construction and equipment installation, and is expected to be put into production in the third quarter of 2022. In the second half of 2021, the company invested in Fuxing Technology in Fuyang, Anhui Province, and implemented the 10GW N+ type ultra-high efficiency single crystal solar wafer project with a start-up scale of 1.5-2GW wafer, the construction of the integrated workshop is in the final stage, and part of the equipment has already been installed and is expected to be trial-produced in June.
Profit forecast. We predict that the EPS of the company in 22-24 is 0.48,0.51,0.53 yuan. Given 10-13 times PE in 2022, the reasonable value range is 4.86.24yuan, which is better than that of the big city.
Risk hint. Product prices fall back; the progress of projects under construction is not as expected; the growth of downstream demand is not as expected.