Core ideas:
Q1 revenue is + 26% compared with the same period last year, and the performance basically breaks even. 2022Q1 is transporting and installing 1.58GW, in which thermal power / hydropower / photovoltaic is 1.4/0.1/0.08GW respectively. In 2021 / 2022Q1, the power consumption of 6.835 million kilowatt-hours (10% of the same period last year) was realized.
In 2021, revenue was 2.7 billion yuan (+ 1% compared with the same period last year); coal price was + 44% compared with the same period last year, resulting in a net profit loss of 250 million yuan. 2022Q1 achieved revenue of 740 million yuan (year-on-year + 26%), coal price month-on-month ratio of-14% to return to the mother of the net profit loss narrowed to 1 million yuan (21Q4 loss of 240 million yuan), the performance inflection point has been.
The profit of thermal power is expected to continue to improve, and the installation of thermal power in the third phase of Fengdian has increased by 140% +. The ratio of electricity consumption to electricity generation in Jiangxi Province is between 120% and 130% in recent years. Thermal power generation accounts for 86.5% of the total electricity generation in 2021, and thermal power is used for 5170 hours in the province. In addition, with the continuous increase in the policy of ensuring and stabilizing the price of thermal coal, the performance rate of the company's long Association Coal is expected to increase, while electricity prices rise by 20% throughout the year. In terms of installation, Fengdian Phase III 2GW thermal power is expected to be put into production this year (thermal power installation growth of 143%), giving performance greater upward flexibility.
The 14th five-year Plan will actively expand the installation of green power plants, the flexible transformation of thermal power, and so on. As a provincial energy platform, the company will focus on developing new energy power generation during the 14th five-year Plan period. In 2022, the company will accelerate its investment in new energy and plan to invest 263 million yuan to build 10 photovoltaic projects; at the same time, it will sign a framework agreement with Shanggao County to complete 2GW clean coal power and 500~600MW photovoltaic projects. In terms of thermal power business, the company actively cooperates with the flexible transformation work, and the No. 5 unit of Fengdian Phase II has successfully reached 25% of the rated load in deep operation, taking the lead in laying out the auxiliary peak regulation service market.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.42 / 0.85 / 1.07 yuan per share, and the corresponding PE will be 12.96 / 6.35 / 5.06 times according to the latest closing price. During the year, the project was put into production and installed doubling, combined with the rise in electricity prices and the improvement of the performance rate of Changxie Coal, and the performance of thermal power is expected to continue to improve. Taking into account the inter-industry valuation and the company's performance growth, the company is given a 15-fold PE valuation in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable value of 6.26 yuan per share, with a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint. Coal prices continue to rise, utilization hours fall short of expectations, and the growth rate of electricity demand slows down.
