Core ideas:
The company disclosed the annual report of 2021 and the quarterly report of 2022: the total operating income of 2021 was 13.314 billion yuan, + 37% compared with the same period last year; the non-net profit deducted from the mother was 2.492 billion yuan, + 56% compared with the same period last year. 2022Q1 achieved a total operating income of 3.605 billion yuan, + 54% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit of 584 million yuan, + 3% year-on-year.
The high increase in operating income is partly due to the growth of the futures basis trading business, which grew by + 19% and-16% respectively after deducting other business income from 2021 and 2022Q1. The company's main leasing business, non-performing assets management business, investment business operation is sound.
In 2021, Yuexiu Leasing completed 1 billion capital increase, Shanghai Yuexiu Leasing completed 2 billion yuan capital increase, and Yuexiu Leasing's registered capital reached HK $9.341 billion at the end of the period, ranking in the forefront of the industry. About 30.3 billion yuan was invested in the whole year, and the rate of bad credit assets at the end of the year was 0.55%, keeping the industry at a low level. In the current period, the operating income was 3.914 billion yuan and the net profit was 1.23 billion yuan, which was + 13% and + 17% compared with the same period last year.
In 2021, Guangzhou assets completed two rounds of capital increase totaling 3.113 billion yuan, introducing strategic investors Guangzhou Hengyun, with a registered capital of 6.309 billion yuan at the end of the period, ranking first in the industry. In the whole year, the acquisition of non-performing assets was increased by 47 billion yuan, and the scale of disposal and withdrawal was 37.3 billion yuan. In the current period, the operating income was 2.57 billion yuan and the net profit was 828 million yuan, which was + 30% and + 18% over the same period last year.
Investment management business and shareholding CITIC has performance flexibility. As of 2022Q1, the total share capital of the company's shareholding CITIC has increased to 7.83%. Benefiting from the reform and good development of the capital market, the company's investment management business and shareholding leading securities firms are expected to achieve good investment returns and contribute to performance flexibility.
The company's performance has both robustness and growth potential, Yuexiu Leasing, Guangzhou asset capital strength and operating capacity are ranked in the forefront of the industry, asset quality is good, after the completion of capital increase in 2021 to provide good support for the follow-up development industry, as the company's performance stabilizer. Investment management business and shareholding CITIC has performance flexibility and is expected to thicken the company's investment income under a good capital market climate. The company itself is expected to continue to benefit from regional economic development and financial layout.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Yuexiu Financial Control is expected to achieve a net profit of 26.9 and 3.06 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023, an increase of 8.7% and 13.6% respectively over the same period last year. Lower the company's 2022E PE valuation to 15x, with a reasonable value of 10.88 yuan per share. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: the promotion of regional reform and construction is lower than expected, and the operation of subsidiaries is not up to expectations.
