In 2021, the company realized a net profit of 150 million yuan, compared with-53.30% of the same period last year. The company's net profit of 2022Q1 was 11 million yuan, which was-79.85% of the same period last year. After the wind boom in 2020, the company's short-and medium-term performance is under pressure. from a long-term point of view, we are good for the long-term development of wind power under the policy of carbon neutrality. Taking into account the pressure on short-and medium-term corporate performance, we lowered the 2022-23 net profit forecast to 150 million yuan (the original forecast is 233,281 million yuan), and increased the forecast for 2024 to 294 million yuan. We lowered the company's target price to 18 yuan (taking into account the downward valuation of the sector as a whole) to maintain the "buy" rating.
The wave of wind power rush to install has faded, and the company's performance declined in 2021 compared with the same period last year. In 2021, the company realized revenue of 1.002 billion yuan, year-on-year-28.04%, net profit of 150 million yuan, year-on-year-53.30%, and deducted non-return net profit of 1.358 billion yuan,-56.11%. The decline in the company's performance is mainly due to the rush installation market driven by the decline of wind power subsidies in 2020, as the first echelon wind power composite manufacturer in the industry, the company's sales received a huge boost in 2020. In 2021, the wave of wind power rush to install faded, and the company's performance was under pressure in the short and medium term.
The local epidemic affected the installation of wind power, and the performance of Q1 company declined significantly in 2022. 2022Q1 achieved revenue of 162 million yuan, year-on-year-35.25%, net profit of 11 million yuan, year-on-year-79.85%, non-return net profit of 9.7 million yuan, year-on-year-81.31%. We speculate that due to the local epidemic and other factors, the poor short-term performance of the wind power sector, as well as higher prices of large goods and rising company costs, are the main reasons for the poor performance in the first quarter.
The long-term development of wind power is still possible, which is expected to promote the company's performance to pick up. Against the backdrop of carbon neutrality, we expect that by 2060, clean energy will account for more than 90% of China's energy structure, of which wind power is expected to account for 25%. From a long-term point of view, the performance of wind power installation will maintain a high growth rate, the company's cabin cover and other wind power products sales are expected to take advantage of the wind to maintain a substantial growth trend.
Benefiting from the trend of lightweight, automotive composite products are expected to increase. Under the policy background of energy saving and emission reduction, the process of automobile lightweight is developing rapidly. Glass fiber composites are expected to replace some traditional metal materials with the advantages of high strength, high temperature and corrosion resistance and good processability. The life anxiety of new energy vehicles will also accelerate the permeability of composites in the passenger car market. At the same time, considering the steady increase in domestic construction machinery sales, the application of composite materials in this field will also grow at the same time. We predict that the domestic composite market for passenger cars and engineering vehicles will have a market space of 12 billion yuan and 8 billion yuan respectively in 2030. As a domestic leader, the company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the market space.
Risk factors: wind power installation continues to be lower than expected; the price of glass fiber composite fluctuates greatly; the penetration speed of composite material in the market is not as expected; the cost of raw materials continues to rise.
Investment suggestion: after the wind boom in 2020, the company's short-and medium-term performance is under pressure. from a long-term point of view, we are good for the long-term development of wind power under the policy of carbon neutrality. Considering the pressure on the short-and medium-term performance of the company, the net profit forecast for 2022-23 is reduced to 150 million yuan (the original forecast is 233,281 million yuan), the net profit forecast for 2024 is 294 million yuan, and the company's target price is reduced to 18 yuan (the original forecast is 37 yuan, taking into account the downward valuation of the sector as a whole, referring to the company's valuation center of about 25x in the past 3 years, give the company 2022 20xPE). Maintain a "buy" rating.