"Daily Research selection" closely follows the latest research trends of institutions, insights and combs the views of the most representative big cities, industries and individual stocks, provides Niu you with third-party institutional analysis and rating reference, and helps Niu you to provide an overview of investment banking trends. Easy to grasp investment opportunities!
Focus Today
Guojin Securities: grasp the trend of industrial upgrading and continue to be optimistic about the upstream pharmaceutical supply chain
CITIC: the worst time for mainland cars has passed. Pay attention to Wei Xiaoli, BYD, Great Wall Motor and so on.
China Galaxy: lithium plate is expected to rebound strongly
Morgan Stanley: raise the target price of China Communications Construction and China Rallway, and increase the rating of China Railway Construction Corporation.
Southwest Securities: first rated by NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD., with a target price of HK $51.23
CICC: maintain Li Auto Inc.-W "outperform industry" rating, lower target price by 23.7% to HK $119
Bank of America Securities: maintain Geely Automobile's "buy" rating with a target price of HK $18
Daiwa: upgrade INNOVENT BIO's rating to hold, and lower the target price to HK $19
Shen Wanhongyuan: maintain 99 "buy" rating with a target price of HK $20
Lyon: downgrade Sunny Optical to "outperform big city", target price reduced by 35.5% to HK $100
Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper
I. Industry plate
Guojin Securities: grasp the trend of industrial upgrading and continue to be optimistic about the upstream pharmaceutical supply chain
Guojin Securities pointed out that the upgrading of the pharmaceutical upstream supply chain industry continues to advance: in 2021, the "supply chain" was mentioned 16 times in the "14th five-year Plan" pharmaceutical industry development plan, and "supply chain stability and control" was mentioned for the first time and many times. With the disclosure of 21-year annual reports by companies related to the pharmaceutical upstream supply chain, China's pharmaceutical upstream supply chain has shown a trend of continuous upgrading and hierarchical replacement of the middle and high-end market. Taking the 21-year return net profit growth as the Abscissa and the 21-year R & D personnel per capita salary as the ordinate, we classify several sub-areas of the pharmaceutical upstream supply chain: 1) the maturity period is characterized by a high degree of localization and a high proportion of offshore business, and the growth rate slows down; 2) the dividend period benefits from the downstream demand growth brought about by the epidemic, and the performance of related enterprises improves rapidly. 3) the breakthrough period is mainly manifested as the rapid volume of performance after the enterprise's technological breakthrough; 4) the sedimentation period is mainly for the industries with high technical difficulty and low localization rate, and it is expected that after the completion of the future technological breakthrough and product introduction period, will lead to greater performance growth flexibility.
CITIC: the worst time for mainland cars has passed. Pay attention to Wei Xiaoli, BYD, Great Wall Motor and so on.
CITIC believes that the worst phase of the automobile industry is over. At present, production, OEM and supply chain resumes production and logistics is gradually improving. Demand-side car companies have abundant orders on hand, and the bank is optimistic about the month-on-month improvement of car sales in May and June. The brand power of independent OEM in the era of electric intelligence is enhanced, and many industry-leading technologies and intelligent experiences lead to innovation. Suggest to pay attention to$Li Auto Inc.-W (02015.HK) $、$XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) $、$NIO Inc.-SW (09866.HK) $ 、$Byd Company Limited (01211.HK) $ 、$Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238.HK) $ 、 $Great Wall Motor (02333.HK) $Wait for the upward OEM of autonomous cycle.
China Galaxy: lithium plate is expected to rebound strongly
China Galaxy Securities said that the global shortage of lithium resources continues, driven by the auction cost of Pilbara lithium concentrate, lithium prices will remain high in the second half of the year, and lithium prices are expected to return to previous highs after resuming production in the lower reaches of the industrial chain and entering the peak demand season. After the recent mass downfall of the plate, the 22-year valuation of most stocks in the lithium industry has generally been lower than 10x, the lithium plate as a whole is undervalued, and it is reflected from the fund's quarterly report that the overcrowding of the lithium track plate has slowed down significantly. Once the market sentiment picks up, the superimposed downstream gradually resumes work and production, and the market is expected to improve the sustainability of high lithium prices, the lithium plate is expected to usher in a strong rebound.
Morgan Stanley: raise the target price of China Communications Construction and China Rallway, and increase the rating of China Railway Construction Corporation.
Morgan Stanley published a research report pointing out that the epidemic in the mainland had a limited impact on the earnings of engineering and construction companies in the first quarter, while the strong orders in the first quarter reflected that boosting infrastructure would be the theme of concern this year, in line with the bank's view. Capital spending on infrastructure is expected to continue to drive cyclical growth this year, and fixed asset investment in infrastructure is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 5.5 per cent this year and next, compared with 2 per cent between 2018 and 2021.
The bank points out that among engineering and construction companies, there is a preference.$China Railway Construction Corporation (01186.HK) $、$China Rallway (00390.HK) $及$China Communications Construction (01800.HK) $All were rated "overweight", believing that 70% to 80% of the revenue of the three companies came from infrastructure projects, and their share prices rose 9%, 25% and 9% respectively in the past month. The bank's target price for China Railway Construction has fallen from HK $10.06 to HK $9, its target price for China Rallway has risen from HK $6 to HK $7.20, and its target price for China Railway has been raised from HK $5.40 to HK $5.80.
II. Individual stocks
Southwest Securities: first granted$NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD. (09633.HK) $Buy rating with a target price of HK $51.23
According to a research report released by Southwest Securities, first rated by NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD., net profit in 2022-24 is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of 24.7 per cent, valuing it at 50 times the target price in 2022 and corresponding to the target price of HK $51.23. Product cultivation is forward-looking, pre-card high-quality track, coupled with a mature distribution system, is expected to take advantage of the industry, both growth and profitability.
CICC: maintain$Li Auto Inc.-W (02015.HK) $"outperform industry" rating, target price reduced by 23.7% to HK $119
CICC said in a research report that it maintained Li Auto Inc.-W "outperform industry" rating, taking into account the strong product cycle in 2023, raising next year's income forecast and non-GAAP earnings test by 35.1% and 58.3%, based on this year's forecast price-to-sales ratio of 2.9 times. The target price fell 23.7% to HK $119.
Bank of America Securities: maintain$Geely Automobile (00175.HK) $Buy rating with a target price of HK $18
Bank of America Securities released a research report saying it maintained Geely Automobile's "buy" rating, with a target price of HK $18. The company's management said that sales rose 70% month-on-month in the first week of May, with orders for 15000 cars on hand, and sales are expected to grow 20% month-on-month. Demand in overseas markets continues to be solid, and sales of the "China Star" series are also strong.
Daiwa: up-regulation$INNOVENT BIO (01801.HK) $Rating to hold, target price lowered to HK $19
Daiwa reported that INNOVENT BIO's share price fell 24% in the second quarter, mainly due to lower-than-expected revenue from Sintilimab in the first quarter and weak market sentiment. The bank believes that the group's negative news has been reflected in the share price, the downside risks are limited, but there is also a lack of a strong catalyst to reverse weak market sentiment. Daiwa added that due to the uncertain sales performance of Cindilizumab this year and the termination of the cooperation agreement with Coherus on bevacizumab bioanalogues, the group's revenue forecast for this year was reduced by 14%, the target price was lowered from HK $26 to HK $19, but its rating was upgraded from outperforming to holding.
Shen Wanhongyuan: maintain$99 (09922.HK) $Buy rating with a target price of HK $20
Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report saying that it maintained a "buy" rating of 99 cents, used a single-store model to value the company, and used the DCF model for cross-checking, with a target price of HK $20, corresponding to a 30 per cent upside. Its income is expected to grow at a compound rate of 34% in 2021-24, mainly due to the expansion of Taier stores. It may open 150 new stores in each of the next three years, and the number of stores is expected to reach 800 by the end of 2024. The company is still in the strategic adjustment stage, conservatively expects the number of stores to remain unchanged. "chafing pot" is in the store sharpening period, with the layout of strategic points in first-and second-tier cities and further refined operation at the same time. It is expected that 10 new stores will be added every year in 2022-24. It is also estimated that the compound growth rate of adjusted net profit in 2021-24 will be 31%, and will reach 850 million yuan in 2024.
Lyon: downgrade$Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) $The target price of rating to "outperform big market" will be reduced by 35.5% to HK $100.
According to a research report released by Lyon, Sunny Optical (02382) was downgraded from "outperforming the big market" to "outperforming the big market", and the target price was lowered from HK $155 to HK $100. earnings in the first half of 2022 are expected to fall 46% year on year and grow again in the second half of 2022. In addition, the profit forecast for 2022 / 23 was cut by 13% by 5%, and the valuation forecast was lowered. It is believed that the short-term pressure is due to investors' concern that the decline in earnings takes precedence over long-term growth expectations. According to the report, the company's car and mobile camera performance in April 2022 complied with the guidelines, but the mobile camera module was worse than expected. Recently, due to exchange rate factors, it has put short-term pressure on the company's 600 million US debt holdings, gross margin performance and valuation indicators of the camera module.
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