The company is a domestic innovative vaccine cutting-edge enterprise, the core competitive advantage lies in the new adjuvant technology platform.
The company's core scientific team has rich industry experience in the research and development and commercialization of innovative vaccines. Based on the self-developed new adjuvant platform, protein engineering platform and immune evaluation platform, Muqian has 12 innovative vaccine research and development echelons, among which there are potential varieties with great commercial value. The core competitiveness of the company is that the company is one of the few companies with the ability to develop new adjuvants, which can target all the new adjuvants that have been approved by FDA, and is expected to smooth out the technological intergenerational differences with the world's leading enterprises in the future, promote the upgrading of domestic recombinant protein vaccine technology and products, and is an indispensable new force in the domestic vaccine industry.
The company's R & D pipeline echelon is rich, and the core products under research have high commercial potential value in the future. The company has 12 innovative vaccine research and development echelons, among which COVID-19 vaccine ReCOV is a recombinant protein vaccine based on the new adjuvant BFA03 (target AS03). It is the only vaccine in the world developed using RBD+NTD dual-target system. It is expected to replace or enhance immunization of listed products by virtue of good immune effect. It is expected to submit EUA for listing in 22 years. With the support of the new adjuvant development technology platform, other products under development, including tetravalent recombinant influenza vaccine, HPV series vaccine, recombinant herpes zoster vaccine, tuberculosis vaccine, and tetravalent HFMD vaccine, are all potential varieties with great commercial value, and are expected to be put on the market one after another before 2025.
Profit forecast and investment advice. ReCOV is expected to be listed at the end of 2022 or early 2023. We estimate that the revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 0 billion yuan, 840 million yuan and 1.68 billion yuan respectively, and the return net profit will be-652 million yuan, 24 million yuan and 566 million yuan respectively. The DCF valuation method is used to value the company. When the sustainable growth rate is about 1% and the WACC is about 13.69%, the reasonable value of the company is 36.93 Hong Kong dollars per share, covered for the first time and given a buy rating.
Risk hint. Long-term technology iteration risk, new product development risk, core technology disclosure or infringement risk, potential risk caused by product safety, and so on.