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百亿港元南下抄底,价值派重仓互联网,港股后市怎么看?

10 billion Hong Kong dollars have gone south to the bottom, and value is heavily invested on the Internet. What do you think of the Hong Kong stock market in the future?

證券時報 ·  May 12, 2022 08:22

Source: Securities Times

The Internet, which was substantially adjusted in the previous period, rebounded for two consecutive trading days. It is worth noting that in the first quarter of this year, public offering funds significantly increased their holdings of leading enterprises in the sector, and a number of star fund managers have said publicly many times that there are very cost-effective investment opportunities in the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks.

Over HK $10 billion has gone south in the past three days, and Internet ETF has risen sharply.

On May 11, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded strongly, with the Hang Seng Index briefly above 20,000 points and the Technology Index above 4000 points, but the index fell back in late trading. By the close, the Hang Seng Index was up 0.97% and the Hang Seng Technology Index was up 2.89%. According to Wind, southbound capital inflows totaled HK $6.292 billion on May 11, with cumulative inflows of more than HK $10 billion in the past three days.

A number of Internet stocks also ushered in a big rise, including Kuaishou Technology up more than 7%, Meituan up more than 6%, Tencent nearly 3%. Hong Kong shares of internet ETF rose more than 6.9 per cent at one point, up 3.41 per cent at the close, with a turnover rate of 76 per cent. According to the latest data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the net capital inflow rate of the ETF has exceeded 4% in the past five trading days, totaling more than 13 million yuan.

Since the second half of 2021, the regulatory policy for the Internet sector has become the focus of the capital market. According to the latest research report of Everbright Securities, the current Internet antitrust supervision cycle has had a more far-reaching impact on the growth mode and mode of operation of the platform economy, and the fundamentals of Internet companies will face certain challenges in the future. however, the overall development prospect of the medium-and long-term industry is still promising.

Considering that the current platform economy-related enterprises have achieved certain first-mover advantages, and have begun to actively carry out strategic adjustment and layout, it is expected that the platform economy will still achieve further development in the future.

Everbright Securities believes that the relevant sectors have reached a time worthy of active layout, the short-term valuation is expected to be repaired first, long-term performance will return to the fundamentals of the industry.

It is worth noting that on April 29, the political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee proposed to "complete the special rectification and reform of the platform economy and implement regular supervision" to set the tone for the next stage of the supervision of the Internet industry.

Guolian Securities said that this marks the gradual clarity of the regulatory policy boundaries for Internet companies, and regular supervision is the main tone in the future. In the second half of the year, it is suggested that we should pay attention to the follow-up progress of the three regulatory directions and further clarify the boundaries of policy supervision. The first is anti-monopoly supervision, which pays attention to the progress of the revision of the Anti-monopoly Law and the landing process of the relevant rules; the second is content supervision, the regulatory boundary is relatively clear, and the focus will tilt from formulation to implementation; and the third is information security supervision. pay attention to the progress of negotiations between China and the United States on audit manuscripts of foreign companies.

Value send an important position in the Internet

According to the quarterly report, Zhou Weiwen, Qiu Dongrong, Shibo and other star fund managers have substantially increased their positions in Hong Kong stocks in the first quarter of this year. Specific to the level of individual stocks, the fund's increase in Meituan and Kuaishou Technology's holdings is very obvious, with quarterly position changes increasing by 84.7194 million shares and 69.914 million shares respectively. Among them, the "value faction" fund manager, on behalf of China Europe Fund Qiu Dongrong and China Europe Fund Yuan Weide, increased Meituan's holdings to the largest heavy stock in the management of products, and the position was directly "filled" to around 10%.

By the end of the first quarter, Qiu Dongrong's leading stock in medium Geng value and the largest heavy stock in medium Geng value and quality were all Meituan, accounting for 10.04% and 9.55% of the net value of the fund, respectively. Yuan Weide managed the largest heavy position stock of CEIBS multiple value and CEIBS emerging value, which was also Meituan, with positions reaching 11.06% and 10.27% respectively. In addition, Yi Fangda Fund Zhang Kun, Jingshun Great Wall Fund Yang Ruiwen, Huitianfu Fund Hu Xinwei, HSBC Jinxin Fund Lu Bin and other star fund managers have built or increased Meituan's positions.

In the quarterly report, Mr Yau specifically expressed his concern about Hong Kong-listed Internet companies. He believes that, first of all, the business of these companies is deeply embedded in the Chinese economy, and the core needs they face are growing, such as entertainment, consumption, social networking, and so on, while the monetization and liquidity of these companies continue to improve.

Second, regulatory policies restrict the over-expansion of the industry and limit the capital expenditure of these companies, especially cross-sector and cross-industry capital expenses. at the same time, it also forces relevant companies to further focus on their core business, constantly enhance their core competitiveness, and build solid business barriers, so that profitability and hematopoiesis continue to improve.

Third, due to the decline in valuation, from expansion in the context of high valuation to contraction in the context of low valuation, leading companies have shifted from large capital expenditure and investment cash outflows to positive operating cash flow. on the contrary, the rate of return on investment is expected to increase significantly.

In a recent live broadcast, Qiu Dongrong said that investing in Internet companies in China is like investing in Amazon.Com Inc in 2003. The best time to invest in the US Internet, he says, is not in a bubble, but in deciding who is the future winner after the bubble. Now the Internet in China is in such a moment, and we can't even rule out the possibility that bigger companies will be born than those Internet companies in the United States.

"now the portfolio is almost full, there are too many stocks to buy, and there is not enough cash. Chiu Tung-jung said that we should cherish the rights and interests market at the current stage. A shares are now a systematic opportunity with structural risks, while the Hong Kong stock market is a systematic and strategic opportunity.

Edit / Corrine

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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