"Daily Research selection" closely follows the latest research trends of institutions, insights and combs the views of the most representative big cities, industries and individual stocks, provides Niu you with third-party institutional analysis and rating reference, and helps Niu you to provide an overview of investment banking trends. Easy to grasp investment opportunities!
Focus Today
CITIC: export improvement superimposed cost drive, and it is expected that the recent increase in paper prices will continue to be realized.
Galaxy Securities: under the main line of "steady growth", the deductive path of the real estate market is gradually clear.
CITIC: there is a significant profit differentiation in sub-sectors, preferred hydropower and new energy.
Ping an Securities: maintain Li Auto Inc.-W "recommended" rating, Q2 production and marketing are greatly affected by the epidemic.
Credit Suisse: raise CNOOC Limited's target price from HK $13 to HK $13.3, maintaining a rating that outperforms the market.
Credit Suisse: maintain Great Wall Motor's "outperform" rating with a target price of HK $22
CICC: restates Tencent's "neutral" rating, reducing the target price by 12% to HK $451
Lyon: downgrade Sunny Optical to "outperform big city", target price reduced to HK $100
CICC: maintain China Resources Pharmaceutical's "outperform industry" rating with a target price of HK $5.42
CICC: maintain elegant living service "outperform industry" rating, target price reduced by 43% to HK $13.6
Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper
I. Industry plate
CITIC: export improvement superimposed cost drive, and it is expected that the recent increase in paper prices will continue to be realized.
CITIC pointed out that disturbed by a variety of factors on the supply side, short-term pulp prices continue to fluctuate at a high level; although domestic demand for finished paper is still flat, exports improve the superimposed cost drive, and it is expected that the recent increase in paper prices will continue to be realized, helping paper companies to repair their profits. It is expected that the inflection point of this round of pulp price adjustment will appear in June-July. For paper companies that have the advantage of pulp layout or benefit from the decline in pulp prices, H2 is expected to continue to improve. In view of the fact that the valuation of the leading papermaking company is currently at the bottom, the fundamental 21Q4 is expected to improve quarter by quarter after hitting the bottom, and the configuration value is highlighted.
Galaxy Securities: under the main line of "steady growth", the deductive path of the real estate market is gradually clear.
Galaxy Securities said that the real estate industry as an important part of "stable growth", the follow-up policy support is only more likely to increase, and at present, both the central and local levels are more positive than the previous period. We believe that May, June and July have entered a period of intensive local policy adjustment, and the policy strength and space for "stable growth" are worth looking forward to. Under the main line of "steady growth", the market interpretation path is gradually clear, and central state-owned enterprises still have upward space. Under the expectation of stabilizing sales and increasing the scale of mergers and acquisitions, high-quality private housing and property management companies have opportunities.
CITIC: there is a significant profit differentiation in sub-sectors, preferred hydropower and new energy.
CITIC believes that the high increase in industry revenue in 2021 is mainly driven by the high demand, and the driving force of the high increase in 2022Q1 revenue is transformed into a rise in electricity prices; from the annual and quarterly reports, there is a significant differentiation in the profits of sub-sectors, with substantial losses in thermal power, a high increase in nuclear power and new energy, and dull hydropower; the sharp rise in coal prices has led to a sharp decline in the profitability of thermal power, but the profitability of thermal power has improved in 2022Q1. Hydropower utilization hours have returned to normal in 2022Q1, large-scale hydropower production is driving a new round of hydropower growth cycle; new energy installation continues to increase, leading to a significant increase in income and performance; and the positive impact of rising nuclear power prices on performance and ROE has appeared in 2022Q1 and is expected to run through the whole year.
II. Individual stocks
Ping an Securities: maintenance$Li Auto Inc.-W (02015.HK) $"recommended" rating, which is expected to gradually restore the pace of production and marketing.
Ping an Securities released a research report saying that to maintain the Li Auto Inc.-W "recommended" rating, the ideal ONE began to raise prices in the second quarter to hedge against rising costs. Short-term factors led to a decline in the growth rate of delivery in the second quarter, and the pace of production and sales is expected to be gradually restored in the follow-up. In addition, 22Q3 will deliver the second model, L9, which is expected to become a competitive model in the 45-500000 yuan SUV market, the price center is expected to move up further, and three new models are planned to be launched in 2023. If the L9 listed in the third quarter is successful, the high-end brand positioning will be further strengthened, enhancing the leading position of the home luxury new energy market, and the valuation level is expected to be further improved. In view of the latest model planning and other factors, the revenue forecast for 2022-24 is reduced to 552.8 Universe 1008.1 / 145.35 billion, and the net profit forecast is revised down to-5.5 Mobil 1.8 / 940 million.
Credit Suisse: will$CNOOC Limited (00883.HK) $The target price rose from HK $13 to HK $13.3, maintaining a rating that outperformed the market.
According to a report released by Credit Suisse, CNOOC's net profit in the first quarter of this year was 34.3 billion yuan, an annual increase of 132%, far better than the earlier profit forecast of 24 billion to 28 billion yuan, and accounted for 27% and 32% of the bank and market profit forecasts for the whole year, respectively. In addition, the group declared a dividend of HK $1.18 per share in the second half of last year, including a final dividend of HK $0.5 and a special dividend of HK $0.68, plus a dividend of HK $0.3 in the first half of last year, which is equivalent to a dividend yield of 13% in current share prices, the highest in the group's history. Credit Suisse raised its target price for CNOOC H shares, reflecting a narrowing of its NAV discount forecast from 25 per cent to 20 per cent.
Credit Suisse: maintain$Great Wall Motor (02333.HK) $"outperform the market" rating, with a target price of HK $22
Credit Suisse released a research report saying that to maintain Great Wall Motor's "outperform" rating, the launch of new products may bring good medium-term growth, with a target price of HK $22. According to the report, the company's April sales fell 41 per cent year-on-year to 53800 vehicles, in line with the decline in the industry, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, parts suppliers halted production. In addition, the company suspended production of the SUV tank 300 on April 14 and did not resume production until the 22nd. The bank believes that the recovery is weak, logistics and manufacturing supply chains are facing difficulties, and capacity utilization of parts suppliers is still at a very low level.
CICC: reiterate$Tencent (00700.HK) $"neutral" rating, target price reduced by 12% to HK $451
CICC said in a research report that it reiterated Tencent's "neutral" rating and kept its income and profit forecasts unchanged for 2022-23. Taking into account the retrogression in the valuation of the invested companies, the target price fell by 12% to HK $451. It is also expected that revenue in the first quarter of this year will be flat at 135.9 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, and adjusted net profit will fall 17% to 27.3 billion yuan.
Lyon: downgrade$Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) $Rated to "outperform the big market", the target price was reduced to HK $100
According to a research report released by Lyon, Sunny Optical was downgraded from "outperform" to "outperform". Earnings are expected to fall 46 per cent in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year, but are expected to grow in the second half of the year, with the target price falling from HK $155to HK $100m. According to the report, the company's car and mobile lens business is expected to meet the standard, but the mobile camera module may be worse than expected, and the exchange rate impact may put short-term pressure on financial costs (including $600 million in bonds and mobile phone module gross margin and valuation indicators).
CICC: maintain$China Resources Pharmaceutical (03320.HK) $"outperform industry" rating with a target price of HK $5.42
According to a research report released by CICC, to maintain China Resources Pharmaceutical's "outrun industry" rating, the EPS forecast for 2022 / 23 will remain unchanged at HK $0.66 / 0.73, with a target price of HK $5.42, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 / 7.4 times for 2022 / 23, which has 32.2% upside from the current share price.
CICC: maintain$elegant living Service (03319.HK) $"outperform industry" rating, target price reduced by 43% to HK $13.6
According to a research report released by CICC, maintaining the "outperform industry" rating of elegant living services, taking into account the pressure on the income and profit margins of extended value-added services, cut profits by 5% in 2022 / 23 by 10% to 2.75 billion yuan / 3.24 billion yuan, and the target price by 43% to 13.6 Hong Kong dollars. corresponding to 6 times 2022 price-to-earnings ratio and 20% upward space for share prices, mainly taking into account the pressure of the real estate market or affecting the certainty of medium-and long-term performance growth. The company is currently trading at 5.1 times 2022 earnings.
Edit / somer