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奥飞数据(300738)投资价值分析报告:快速崛起的IDC龙头 看好持续扩张

Aofei Data (300738) Investment Value Analysis Report: Rapidly rising IDC leaders are optimistic about continued expansion

中信證券 ·  May 10, 2022 18:56  · Researches

Ofei data focus on the data center, in recent years, the number of bus driver cabinets, income, performance have achieved rapid growth. With the management's forge ahead, rapid expansion in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and around Beijing, and in-depth cooperation with large Internet customers such as Kuaishou Technology, Baidu, Inc., Meituan, JD.com, the company has become a high-quality dark horse in the field of IDC. At present, the company has 20, 000 IDC cabinets and more than 50, 000 cabinets under construction, which is expected to grow in the future. We give the company a target price of 24 yuan, covering it for the first time and giving it a "buy" rating.

Company introduction: high-speed growth of IDC dark horse. Ofei data deeply ploughs the data center business, and the number and performance of bus driver cabinets have continued to grow rapidly in recent years: from 2017 to 2021, the number of bus driver cabinets was about 1500, 2950, 7200, 16000 and 19900 respectively, and the number of cabinets CAGR was as high as 91%. In 2013-2021, the company's IDC business revenue increased from 25.75 million yuan to 1.03 billion yuan, and CAGR reached 59%. From 2014 to 2021, the CAGR of the company's homed net profit and EBITDA was 67% and 87%, respectively. At present, the number of bus driver cabinets is nearly 20,000, and the number of cabinets under construction is more than 50,000. The company continues to expand large-scale Internet customers, and its performance is expected to continue to grow high.

Industry overview: demand growth + tight supply in core areas, the IDC industry is booming. In 2021, the size of China's IDC market was 150 billion yuan, accounting for about 34% of the global CAGR reached 27.8% in 2016-2021, higher than the average growth rate of the global IDC market. In 2021, under the influence of the double control policy of energy consumption and the strict supervision of Internet manufacturers, the supply and demand of IDC industry will be suppressed in the short term. In 2022, with the start of the East-West calculation project and the relaxation of the control and control of energy consumption indicators, the launch of IDC cabinets is expected to return to the right track. In addition, it is expected that as the domestic Internet manufacturers Capex gradually warm up, traffic continues to grow rapidly, the demand for IDC in first-tier cities is still scarce, and the overall prosperity of the IDC industry is expected to improve.

Company advantages: key areas to accelerate expansion, binding customers continue to grow.

1) Governance advantages: the expansion strategy is clear, and senior executives are determined to forge ahead. From 2017 to 2021, the number of cabinets in the company reached 91% CAGR. The company's Guangzhou Nansha computer room, Langfang Guan new generation cloud computing and artificial intelligence industrial park and other projects are under construction, with more than 50,000 IDC cabinets in reserve. The management of the company is experienced and enterprising, and the core members of the team are stable. The company will issue a restricted stock incentive plan in 2021 and plan to award 7.2 million restricted shares to 145 incentive targets, which is expected to further boost the enthusiasm of the team.

2) Resource advantages: key area layout, rich cabinet resources. Aofei data is currently in-depth layout in Guangdong and around Beijing, deploying a large number of high-quality cabinet resources, the company in Langfang, Nansha and other data centers for Internet customers, strong demand. At present, the company has 12 self-built data centers and about 19900 cabinets available.

3) customer advantage: bind high-quality Internet customers, the performance of high-speed growth. About 80% of the company's customers are Internet enterprises, including Kuaishou Technology, Baidu, Inc., Meituan, JD.com, BABA and so on. Since 2021, the company has signed cooperation agreements with Baidu, Inc. on Nansha and Langfang Gu'an data centers respectively. The company expects to provide 3850 cabinets with a cumulative cooperation amount of nearly 2 billion yuan. The company has gradually increased the proportion of wholesale IDC, thanks to good customer expansion and high-quality resource card positions, the company's revenue growth and profitability leading the industry.

4) financing efficiency: multiple financing channels and sustainable development. From 2018 to 2021, the company successively raised about 1.35 billion yuan through IPO, private placement and convertible bonds, effectively supporting the rapid expansion of the business.

Risk factors: changes in industry policy adversely affect the company; traffic growth falls short of expectations; Capex growth of cloud manufacturers falls short of expectations; company IDC cabinet expansion falls short of expectations; company cabinet shelving rate increases less than expected; company customer expansion falls short of expectations; company performance growth falls short of expectations.

Investment advice: Ofei data focus data center, in recent years, the number of bus drivers, income, performance have achieved rapid growth. With the forge ahead of the management, the national expansion of the development strategy and the deep cooperation with large Internet customers, the company has become a high-quality dark horse in the field of IDC. At present, the company is building more than 50,000 cabinets in the IDC project, which is expected to grow in the future. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 2.04,3.02 and 400 million yuan respectively. We select Baoxin software, Kehua data, Sinnet, data port four comparable companies, their 2023 Wind is expected to average PE of 21 times, it is expected that the company's test results will be gradually released in the next few years, is expected to maintain rapid growth, so select 2023 as the valuation year, and the company is currently in the hands of data center projects of more than 50,000 cabinets, excellent future growth, we give the company a certain valuation premium. We give the company a target price of 24 yuan according to 30x PE in 2023, covering it for the first time and giving it a "buy" rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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