In 2021, the company realized operating income and net profit of 29.8 and 300 million yuan, which was + 35% and + 319% compared with the same period last year.
The company is a scarce calcium carbide integrated chlor-alkali chemical enterprise in southwest China. under the background of rising oil prices, the prosperity of the company's main products is improved, the cost side is expected to benefit from partial self-supply of calcium carbide, and profitability is expected to be improved.
The company acquired part of the stake in Jintai potash, opening the layout of the new energy field. It is predicted that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.39, 0.50, 0.54 yuan respectively, maintaining the target price of 10 yuan and the "buy" rating.
The prosperity of the main products has improved, and the performance has increased significantly in 2021. The company takes chlor-alkali chemical industry as its core business, and has formed PVC resin, caustic soda, calcium carbide and other chemical products production and operation, warehousing, logistics and other related business.
At present, the company has 300000 tons of PVC resin, 250000 tons of caustic soda and other important production capacity. In 2021, under the background of the sharp rise in the price of PVC and caustic soda, the company realized sales revenue of 2.98 billion yuan, an increase of 35% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 300 million yuan, an increase of 319% over the same period last year. Affected by rising costs in the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved sales revenue of 830 million yuan, an increase of 29% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 30 million yuan, 53% over the same period last year.
The rare calcium carbide integrated chlor-alkali chemical enterprises in southwest China have outstanding cost advantages. In October 2021, the price of calcium carbide reached a 10-year high, and the highest price in East China was close to 8000 yuan per ton. although the price of calcium carbide fell sharply in 2022, it was still higher than the historical average. Under the background of energy double control policy superimposed carbon neutralization and carbon peak policy, calcium carbide as a high pollution and high energy consumption industry, power production will further tend to be normal, calcium carbide supply decline and prices continue to rise will directly affect the profits and stable production of calcium carbide PVC enterprises, integrated calcium carbide synthesis PVC enterprises are expected to benefit. The company is a scarce calcium carbide integrated chlor-alkali chemical enterprise in southwest China. under the background of rising oil prices, the prosperity of the company's main products is improved, the cost side is expected to benefit from partial self-supply of calcium carbide, and profitability is expected to be improved.
Acquire a 9.88% stake in Qinghai Jintai potash and enter the field of scarce resources of lithium and potassium. The company issued an announcement on March 31 to acquire all the shares of Qinghai Jintai Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. held by Shenzhen Zhaoxin Energy Co., Ltd. Zhaoxin Energy currently holds 16.67% of the shares in Qinghai Jintai. Due to the introduction of strategic investors and the increase of capital and shares in Qinghai Jintai, Zhaoxin Energy has given up the priority subscription right, and after the industrial and commercial change of the capital increase behavior is completed, the shareholding proportion of Qinghai Jintai held by Zhaoxin Energy will be adjusted to 9.88%. Jintai potash is also a high-quality salt lake resource in China, which can produce lithium carbonate and potassium chloride. under the rapid development of the new energy industry and the sanctions imposed by Belarus, the prices of lithium and potassium are expected to remain high. bring increment to the company's profits in the future.
Risk factors: 1) large fluctuations in raw material prices; 2) large fluctuations in product prices; 3) the risk of underutilization of the company's capacity; 4) the risk that downstream demand is lower than expected; and 5) the risk that the acquisition progress is lower than expected.
Investment suggestion: the company is a scarce calcium carbide integrated chlor-alkali chemical enterprise in southwest China. under the background of rising oil prices, the prosperity of the company's main products is improved, the cost side is expected to benefit from partial self-supply of calcium carbide, and profitability is expected to be improved. The company acquired part of the stake in Jintai potash and entered the field of new energy. We believe that PVC, caustic soda scene demeanor is still high, but taking into account the rising prices of raw materials in the upper reaches of this year, energy costs are under pressure, the company's 2022-2023 net profit forecast for home ownership is 240 million yuan (the original forecast is 41pm 440 million yuan), the new 2024 net profit forecast for 2024 is 330 million yuan, corresponding to 2022-2024 EPS is 0.39pm 0.50pm 0.54 yuan respectively. With reference to the 15xPE hub of the caustic soda industry and the 25xPE hub of the potassium lithium industry, combined with the proportion of the company's business, it will be given 20xPE in 2023, maintaining the target price of 10 yuan and a "buy" rating.