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海通国际:乳制品消费需求稳健 短期压力不改长期趋势
Haitong International: steady short-term pressure of consumer demand for dairy products does not change the long-term trend

智通財經 ·  {{timeTz}}


Zhitong Financial APP learned that Haitong International released a research report saying that the dairy industry is developing steadily in 2021, and the prosperity is still strong in 2022. Leading enterprises have effectively controlled the pressure of rising raw materials, with 15 key companies achieving a total revenue of 313.693 billion yuan (up 16.59 percent over the same period last year); and total revenue of the Q1 dairy industry in 2022 was 46.555 billion yuan (an increase of 12.43 percent over the same period last year). At the same time, the expense rate has declined steadily, and the profitability of the industry will improve steadily. The bank continues to recommend the entire dairy sector, and individual stocks suggest paying attention to 600887.SH,$China Feihe Limited (06186.HK) $, Youran Animal Husbandry (09858), China Mengniu Dairy (02319), Modern Animal Husbandry (01117), Aoyou (01717).


The main points of Haitong International are as follows:


The dairy industry develops steadily in 2021, and the prosperity is still exuberant in 2022.


In terms of revenue, the total revenue of 15 key companies in the dairy industry in 2021 was 313.693 billion yuan, an increase of 16.59 percent over the same period last year, while the total revenue of the Q1 dairy industry in 2022 was 46.555 billion yuan, an increase of 12.43 percent over the same period last year. 22Q1 due to the disturbance of the epidemic, the dairy supply chain is temporarily blocked, dairy enterprises are actively facing short-term business difficulties, with the gradual dissipation of the impact of the event, the rapid recovery of dairy demand, superimposed on the enhancement of consumers' awareness of health, the upward trend of the prosperity of the dairy industry remains unchanged.


Earnings will be squeezed in stages in 2021 and will return to upward trend in 2022.


In 2021, the gross profit margin of dairy products plate is generally under pressure, and the net profit rate is differentiated. In terms of gross profit margin, due to the increase in downstream demand and feed prices, the relationship between supply and demand of raw milk is further out of balance, resulting in a sharp rise in raw milk prices by more than 10%, and the rapid rise in raw material costs has led to a general decline in the end-to-end gross profit margin of enterprises. Milk powder and other categories are affected by the change of the competition pattern, and the gross profit margin also shrinks to a certain extent. In terms of net interest rate, leading enterprises such as Yili and Mengniu can effectively alleviate the cost pressure and improve profitability by directly raising prices, improving product structure and reducing sales promotion. Cost pressure will ease in 2022, and the profitability of the industry is expected to rise steadily.


In 2021, the expense rate has declined steadily, and the operating efficiency has been improved.


From the perspective of expense rate, the sales expense rate and management expense rate of most dairy enterprises have shrunk. 2022Q1 Yili shares / New Dairy (002946.SZ) / Yantang Dairy (002732.SZ) / Sanyuan shares (600429.SH) / Huangshi Group (002329.SZ) / Tianrun Dairy (600419.SH) / Miao Ke Landuo (600882.SH) / 002570.SZ) sales expense rate month-on-month change + 13.45/+0.85/-2.71/+6.05/-1.54/+4.13/-4.54/+2.62pct. Yili shares due to the concentrated investment of Olympic Games-related marketing expenses led to the expense rate upward, but from the long-term development trend of the industry, the competition of room temperature category slowed down, and the expense rate under digital enabling declined steadily. From the perspective of accounts receivable turnover, the operating efficiency of most 22Q1 enterprises is significantly higher than that of 21Q1 in the same period, and the operating efficiency of enterprises is further improved.


Short-term pressure does not change the long-term positive trend.


In 2020, the dairy industry has entered a period of growth again. At this stage, the consumption, price and product structure of the dairy industry have been significantly improved, and cheese, low-temperature white milk and other categories have achieved rapid development. At the enterprise level, rational competition and high-quality development have become a consensus, and the company's profitability has improved steadily. In the short term, the market is worried about the rapid rise in raw material costs, the deterioration of competition in some high-growth categories, and the slowdown or even decline in the growth rate of low-temperature yogurt and milk beverages under the influence of the epidemic. However, the bank believes that China's dairy consumption still has huge market space, and various sub-categories under the background of consumption upgrading still have room for growth; the competition pattern of high-growth and high-margin categories represented by cheese deteriorates, but it does not pose a drag on corporate profits; leading companies are fully able to absorb the pressure of rising costs by raising prices and upgrading product structure. From a longer-term perspective, enterprises through the layout of the whole industry chain to reduce operational risk, digital empowerment to improve the efficiency of the use of costs and the continuous improvement of product structure will continue to lead the profit margin upward.


Risk factors:Food safety problems, raw material prices soaring again, and the promotion of new products is not as expected.

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