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海通国际:乳制品消费需求稳健 短期压力不改长期趋势
Haitong International: steady short-term pressure of consumer demand for dairy products does not change the long-term trend

智通財經 ·  {{timeTz}}

智通财经APP获悉,海通国际发布研究报告称,2021年乳制品行业发展稳健,2022年景气度依旧旺盛,龙头企业有效控制原材料上涨的压力,15家重点公司实现营业总收入为3136.93亿元(同比增长16.59%);2022年Q1乳制品行业总营收为465.55亿元(同比增长12.43%)。同时费用率稳中有降,行业盈利能力将稳步提升。该行继续推荐整个乳制品板块,个股建议关注伊利股份(600887.SH)、$中国飞鹤(06186.HK)$、优然牧业(09858)、蒙牛乳业(02319)、现代牧业(01117)、澳优(01717)。

Zhitong Financial APP learned that Haitong International released a research report saying that the dairy industry is developing steadily in 2021, and the prosperity is still strong in 2022. Leading enterprises have effectively controlled the pressure of rising raw materials, with 15 key companies achieving a total revenue of 313.693 billion yuan (up 16.59 percent over the same period last year); and total revenue of the Q1 dairy industry in 2022 was 46.555 billion yuan (an increase of 12.43 percent over the same period last year). At the same time, the expense rate has declined steadily, and the profitability of the industry will improve steadily. The bank continues to recommend the entire dairy sector, and individual stocks suggest paying attention to 600887.SH,$China Feihe Limited (06186.HK) $, Youran Animal Husbandry (09858), China Mengniu Dairy (02319), Modern Animal Husbandry (01117), Aoyou (01717).

海通国际主要观点如下:

The main points of Haitong International are as follows:

2021年乳制品行业发展稳健,2022年景气度依旧旺盛。

The dairy industry develops steadily in 2021, and the prosperity is still exuberant in 2022.

从收入角度看,2021年乳制品行业15家重点公司实现营业总收入为3136.93亿元,同比增长16.59%;2022年Q1乳制品行业总营收为465.55亿元,同比增长12.43%。22Q1由于疫情扰动,乳制品供应链暂时受阻,乳制品企业积极面对短期的经营困境,随着事件影响逐步消散,乳制品需求快速恢复,叠加消费者健康化意识的增强,乳制品行业景气度向上趋势不变。

In terms of revenue, the total revenue of 15 key companies in the dairy industry in 2021 was 313.693 billion yuan, an increase of 16.59 percent over the same period last year, while the total revenue of the Q1 dairy industry in 2022 was 46.555 billion yuan, an increase of 12.43 percent over the same period last year. 22Q1 due to the disturbance of the epidemic, the dairy supply chain is temporarily blocked, dairy enterprises are actively facing short-term business difficulties, with the gradual dissipation of the impact of the event, the rapid recovery of dairy demand, superimposed on the enhancement of consumers' awareness of health, the upward trend of the prosperity of the dairy industry remains unchanged.

2021年盈利阶段性压缩,2022年将重回升势。

Earnings will be squeezed in stages in 2021 and will return to upward trend in 2022.

2021年乳制品板块毛利率普遍承压、净利率有所分化。毛利率方面,由于下游需求提升以及饲料价格上涨,原奶供需关系进一步失衡,导致原奶价格大幅上涨超10%,原材料成本快速上涨导致企业端毛利率普遍下滑。奶粉等品类受竞争格局变化影响,毛利率也出现一定程度收缩。净利率方面,伊利和蒙牛等龙头企业通过直接提价、提升产品结构以及减少促销等方式,有效缓解成本压力,实现盈利能力的提升。2022年成本压力有所缓解,预计行业盈利能力稳中有升。

In 2021, the gross profit margin of dairy products plate is generally under pressure, and the net profit rate is differentiated. In terms of gross profit margin, due to the increase in downstream demand and feed prices, the relationship between supply and demand of raw milk is further out of balance, resulting in a sharp rise in raw milk prices by more than 10%, and the rapid rise in raw material costs has led to a general decline in the end-to-end gross profit margin of enterprises. Milk powder and other categories are affected by the change of the competition pattern, and the gross profit margin also shrinks to a certain extent. In terms of net interest rate, leading enterprises such as Yili and Mengniu can effectively alleviate the cost pressure and improve profitability by directly raising prices, improving product structure and reducing sales promotion. Cost pressure will ease in 2022, and the profitability of the industry is expected to rise steadily.

2021年费用率稳中有降,营运效率有所提升。

In 2021, the expense rate has declined steadily, and the operating efficiency has been improved.

从费用率角度来看,大部分乳企销售费用率和管理费用率有所收缩。2022Q1伊利股份/新乳业(002946.SZ)/燕塘乳业(002732.SZ)/三元股份(600429.SH)/皇氏集团(002329.SZ)/天润乳业(600419.SH)/妙可蓝多(600882.SH)/贝因美(002570.SZ)销售费用率环比变化+13.45/+0.85/-2.71/+6.05/-1.54/+4.13/-4.54/+2.62pct。伊利股份由于奥运会相关营销费用的集中投放导致费用率上行,但是从行业长期发展趋势上看,常温品类竞争趋缓,数字化赋能下费用率稳中有降。从应收账款周转率的角度看,22Q1大部分企业营运效率显著高于21Q1同期水平,企业经营效率进一步改善。

From the perspective of expense rate, the sales expense rate and management expense rate of most dairy enterprises have shrunk. 2022Q1 Yili shares / New Dairy (002946.SZ) / Yantang Dairy (002732.SZ) / Sanyuan shares (600429.SH) / Huangshi Group (002329.SZ) / Tianrun Dairy (600419.SH) / Miao Ke Landuo (600882.SH) / 002570.SZ) sales expense rate month-on-month change + 13.45/+0.85/-2.71/+6.05/-1.54/+4.13/-4.54/+2.62pct. Yili shares due to the concentrated investment of Olympic Games-related marketing expenses led to the expense rate upward, but from the long-term development trend of the industry, the competition of room temperature category slowed down, and the expense rate under digital enabling declined steadily. From the perspective of accounts receivable turnover, the operating efficiency of most 22Q1 enterprises is significantly higher than that of 21Q1 in the same period, and the operating efficiency of enterprises is further improved.

短期压力不改长期向好趋势。

Short-term pressure does not change the long-term positive trend.

2020年乳制品行业再次步入成长期。在此阶段,乳制品行业消费量、价以及产品结构均有明显提升,奶酪、低温白奶等品类实现了快速的发展。在企业层面,理性竞争、高质量发展成为共识,公司盈利能力稳步提升。短期来看,市场对原材料成本上涨过快、部分高增速品类竞争格局恶化、疫情影响下低温酸奶及乳饮料增速放缓甚至下滑等问题表示担忧。但是该行认为我国乳制品消费仍具备巨大市场空间,消费升级背景下的各个子品类依旧具备增长空间;以奶酪为代表的高增速、高毛利品类竞争格局恶化但对企业盈利尚不构成拖累;龙头公司通过提价、提升产品结构的方式完全有能力消化成本上涨压力。从更长期的维度看,企业通过全产业链布局降低经营风险,数字化赋能提升费用使用效率以及产品结构的不断提升将持续引领利润率不断向上。

In 2020, the dairy industry has entered a period of growth again. At this stage, the consumption, price and product structure of the dairy industry have been significantly improved, and cheese, low-temperature white milk and other categories have achieved rapid development. At the enterprise level, rational competition and high-quality development have become a consensus, and the company's profitability has improved steadily. In the short term, the market is worried about the rapid rise in raw material costs, the deterioration of competition in some high-growth categories, and the slowdown or even decline in the growth rate of low-temperature yogurt and milk beverages under the influence of the epidemic. However, the bank believes that China's dairy consumption still has huge market space, and various sub-categories under the background of consumption upgrading still have room for growth; the competition pattern of high-growth and high-margin categories represented by cheese deteriorates, but it does not pose a drag on corporate profits; leading companies are fully able to absorb the pressure of rising costs by raising prices and upgrading product structure. From a longer-term perspective, enterprises through the layout of the whole industry chain to reduce operational risk, digital empowerment to improve the efficiency of the use of costs and the continuous improvement of product structure will continue to lead the profit margin upward.

风险因素:食品安全问题、原材料价格再次大涨、新品推广不及预期。

Risk factors:Food safety problems, raw material prices soaring again, and the promotion of new products is not as expected.

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