Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guojin Securities issued a research report saying that in an environment where both epidemic and geopolitical risks are uncertain, the innovative drug sector needs to select more individual stocks rather than just subdivide the track. The first choice is a mature pharmaceutical company with large-scale income, which is relatively more risk-resistant, so it is recommended to pay attention.Junshi Bio (01877), Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (01969), CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093). In addition, there can be a small amount of configuration: Biotech, which has established barriers and can quickly transform R & D projects. at present, the negotiation between national medical insurance and collection is advancing rapidly, and getting approval or entering medical insurance first will make pharmaceutical companies in a very different position in the competition; it is recommended to choose international experience biological drugs or biotechnology targets with high industrial or technical barriers and in line with advanced laws and regulations and market standards. Recommended concerns:China Cell (688520.SH), Jianyou Co., Ltd. (603707.SH), Rongchang Bio (09995)等。
The main points of Guojin Securities are as follows:
Performance is good: innovation-driven pharmaceutical performance continues to grow strongly, bio-pharmaceutical companies into the market capitalization of Top20.
Overall:
①In the past five years, the annual revenue and net profit CAGR5yr of A-share medical and medical related stocks were 15% and 16% respectively. In the first quarter, the CAGR6yr of revenue and net profit were 18% and 26%, respectively. 21120A's overall revenue was 1.98 / 1.74 trillion yuan, up 14% over the same period last year; net profit was 1,865 / 149 billion yuan, up 25% and 58%; and R & D expenses were 881 / 71.8 billion yuan, up 23% and 22% over the same period last year.
②The overall growth of the sector continues, and the profit growth rate is higher than the revenue growth rate; the apparent overall net profit margin remains around 9%, slightly upward, while the share of R & D expenses continues to rise from 3.1% in 2018 to 4.5% in 2021; if R & D expenses are added back, the overall net profit margin of the A-share pharmaceutical industry as a whole has reached about 14%.
③The overall performance growth trend of the industry is determined, innovation-driven and sustainable. Since China's accession to the ICH in June 2017, Chinese medicine has been in line with the highest international standards in clinic and regulation; the Hong Kong stock market 18A innovation listing rules in 2018 and the launch of the A-share gem in 2019 have led to the rapid growth of innovative biotechnology enterprises. At the end of 2021, with the in-depth promotion of DRG/DIP, the replacement of medical insurance cages and the improvement of medical efficiency go hand in hand, innovative treatments and innovative drugs go hand in hand with the industrial chain of new consumption; after the disappearance of the epidemic, it will be determined to enter a new stage of higher growth.
A-share drugs:The growth rate of 1Q22 of each sub-sector is better than 21A, and the valuation is in the middle of history, slightly lower than the level of 2019.
①The median year-on-year growth rates of 1Q22 net profit and revenue in the biomedicine, biological products, synthetic biology, chemical pharmaceuticals, traditional Chinese medicine and API sectors were 32%, 27%, 13%, 12%, 10%, 11%, 15%, 12% and 7%, respectively. Except for the API sector, all the other sub-sectors had a better profit growth rate than revenue. Science and Technology Innovation Board 81 pharmaceutical stocks 1Q22 and 21A deducted the number of non-positive shares are 18 and 28pi BioTech opportunities and risks coexist.
②At present, the valuation of pharmaceutical individual stocks is in the middle of history, with the original and R & D added PE and PEG of 21A of 94 chemical drug stocks are 47max 24 and 2.5max 1.3 respectively.
Hong Kong stocks:The investment in innovation continues, and the achievement is worth looking forward to. Of the nearly 200 stocks, CXO has the strongest profitability, while biotech has the highest revenue growth. In CXO and biotechnology, 21A revenue / net profit increased by 46% and 66%, respectively.
The trend is weak: there are 2 main lines of global medicine trend, epidemic situation and innovation; A shares are all the main lines of the epidemic.
Of all the 404 pharmaceutical stocks with a market capitalization of Top50, only 4 rose better in the quarter, including China Resources Shuanghe, Jiu'an Medical, Yiling Pharmaceutical and Junshi Bio, all related to the theme of the epidemic. In the same period, the head market capitalization of 952 pharmaceutical stocks in the United States led the increase in the co-existence of epidemic and innovation. From the beginning of 2022 to the end of April, the pharmaceutical sector of A-share Kecheng Board has all 81 pharmaceutical stocks, with only six stocks of Shanghai Friendship, Junshi Biology, Anxu Biology, Rejing Biology, Australian-Chinese Endoscope and Aotai Biology (only 2 pharmaceutical stocks) showing positive gains, while all the other 75 stocks fell and the median decline was 37.6%.
Risk Tips:The fluctuation of the epidemic and the performance repair after the epidemic are not as expected; the clinical progress and commercialization of innovative products are not as expected; collection further affects profitability and intensified market competition.