Weitai Healthcare (2235.HK): Digital transformation, leader in personal blood sugar management

中金公司 · Nov 21, 2021 00:00 · Researches

2021年11月21日，中金公司首次覆盖微泰医疗-B（02235）给予跑赢行业评级。理由如下：

► 糖尿病管理器械市场有望保持高速增长。灼识咨询数据显示，2020 年全球胰岛素泵和连续血糖监测仪（Continuous Glucose Monitor，CGM）市场规模为 56 亿和 57 亿美元，其预计 2030 年有望达到 207 亿和 365 亿美元，2020-2030 年复合增长率为 14.0%和 20.3%；2020 年中国胰岛素泵和 CGM 市场规模为 1.3 亿和 1.4 亿美元，其预计 2030 年有望达到 10 亿和 26 亿美元，2020-2030 年复合增长率为 23.3%和 34.0%。

► 微泰医疗是目前全球唯一一家同时拥有商业化的贴敷式胰岛素泵（Equil）和实时免校准 CGM（AiDEX G7）的公司。灼识咨询数据显示，Equil 是全球第二款商业化的半抛贴敷式胰岛素泵，也是目前唯一一款同时在欧洲（2017 年 6 月）和中国（2017 年 9 月）获批的国产贴敷式胰岛素泵。公司预计 Equil 有望于 1H22 获 FDA 审批。AiDEX G7 是全球第二款商业化实时免校准 CGM，已于欧洲（2020 年 9 月）和中国（2021 年 11 月）获批，商业化在即。公司预计 AiDEX G7 有望于 1H23 获 FDA 批准。我们认为公司两款核心产品有望凭借先发优势和产品性能抢占市场。

► 微泰医疗市场份额有望持续提升。我们认为微泰发展的驱动力来自于： 1）Equil 采用无导管设计，有望逐步替代传统导管式胰岛素泵；2）AiDEX G7 具备实时免校准功能，技术和成本优势明显；3）产能建设顺利，有望满足未来需求；4）基于云端大数据的糖尿病平台，可协同 Equil 和 AiDEX 打造闭环人工胰腺。

我们与市场的最大不同？1）我们认为随着中国厂商综合实力不断增强，中国糖尿病管理器械市场有望持续扩大；2）微泰医疗有望凭借丰富产品组合、积极拓展国内外市场和增大产能建设来逐渐提高市场占有率。

潜在催化剂：1）AiDEX G7 销售超预期。2）产品美国上市进度超预期。

盈利预测分析：我们预计微泰医疗 2021-2025 年期间收入有望实现 94.18%的年复合增速，公司 2021-2025 年收入分别为 1.45 亿/3.24 亿/6.90 亿/13.57 亿/20.64 亿人民币。

我们预计公司综合毛利率有望在 2021-25 年由 50.9%提升到 65.3%。公司 2019 年、2020 年和 4M21 毛利率分别 46.4%、48.5%和 53.9%。公司核心营业成本主要包括了原材料和员工成本等。其中原材料和员工成本在 2019 年、2020 年和 4M21 分别占比为 77.7%/20.0%、 78.1%/19.1%和 76.1%/18.3%。由于规模效应，我们预计公司毛利率有望在未来 5 年由 50.9% 逐步提升到 65.3%。

由于规模效应，我们预测公司销售和营销费用率、行政费用率和研发费用率将会下降。2019 年销售和营销费用、行政费用和研发费用分别占总收入的 52.1%、64.8%和 96.5%。2020 年上述三项费用分别占总收入的 73.1%、60.8%和 108.9%。

► 销售和营销费用：由于规模效应，我们预测 2021-25 年公司销售和营销费用率将由 43.0%逐步下降到 23.0%。

► 行政费用：由于规模经济效应和管理水平的提高，我们预测 2021-25 年公司行政费用率将由 30.0%逐步下降到 6.0%。

► 研发费用：我们预测 2021-25 年公司研发费用率将由 57.0%逐步下降到 14.0%。

On November 21, 2021, China International Capital Corporation covered Weitai Medical for the first time-B (02235) rated the outperforming industry. The reasons are as follows:

The ► diabetes management device market is expected to maintain rapid growth. The global market for insulin pumps and continuous blood glucose monitors (Continuous Glucose Monitor,CGM) is expected to reach $20.7 billion and $36.5 billion in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 14.0% and 20.3% in 2020-2030, according to cauterization data. The market size of Chinese islet pumps and CGM is US $130 million and US $140 million in 2020, and it is expected to reach US $1 billion and US $2.6 billion in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 23.3% and 34.0% from 2020 to 2030.

► Weitai Medical is the only company in the world that has both a commercial insulin pump (Equil) and a real-time calibration-free CGM (AiDEX G7). Equil is the second commercial semi-drop insulin pump in the world, and it is also the only domestic insulin pump approved in Europe (June 2017) and China (September 2017). The company expects Equil to be approved by FDA in 1H22. The AiDEX G7 is the second commercial real-time calibration-free CGM in the world. It has been approved in Europe (September 2020) and China (November 2021), and commercialization is imminent. The company expects the AiDEX G7 to be approved by FDA in 1H23. We believe that the company's two core products are expected to seize the market by virtue of first-mover advantages and product performance.

► Weitai medical market share is expected to continue to increase. We believe that Weitai's development is driven by: 1) Equil using non-catheter design, which is expected to gradually replace the traditional catheterized insulin pump; 2) AiDEX G7 with real-time non-calibration function, with obvious technical and cost advantages; 3) production capacity construction is smooth and is expected to meet future needs; 4) based on cloud big data diabetes platform, you can work with Equil and AiDEX to create closed-loop artificial pancreas.

What is the biggest difference between us and the market?1) We believe that with the increasing comprehensive strength of Chinese manufacturers, China's diabetes management device market is expected to continue to expand; 2) Weitai Medical is expected to gradually increase its market share by enriching its product portfolio, expanding domestic and foreign markets and increasing production capacity construction.

Potential catalyst:1) AiDEX G7 sales exceeded expectations. 2) the listing progress of the products in the United States has exceeded expectations.

Profit forecast analysisWe expect Weitai Medical's revenue to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 94.18% from 2021 to 2025, and the company's revenue from 2021 to 2025 will be 145 million / 324 million / 690 million / 1.357 billion / 2.064 billion respectively.

We expect the company's comprehensive gross margin to increase from 50.9% to 65.3% in 2021-25.The company's gross profit margins in 2019, 2020 and 4M21 were 46.4%, 48.5% and 53.9%, respectively. The company's core operating costs mainly include raw materials and employee costs. The proportion of raw materials and staff costs in 2019, 2020 and 4M21 were 77.7%, 20.0%, 78.1%, 19.1% and 76.1%, respectively. Due to economies of scale, we expect the company's gross margin to gradually increase from 50.9% to 65.3% in the next five years.

Due to the scale effect, we predict that the company's sales and marketing expense rate, administrative expense rate and R & D expense rate will decline.In 2019, sales and marketing expenses, administrative expenses and R & D expenses accounted for 52.1%, 64.8% and 96.5% of the total revenue, respectively. In 2020, the above three fees accounted for 73.1%, 60.8% and 108.9% of the total income, respectively.

►Sales and marketing expensesDue to economies of scale, we predict that the company's sales and marketing expense rate will gradually decline from 43.0% to 23.0% in 2021-25.

►Administrative expensesDue to the effect of economies of scale and the improvement of management level, we predict that the rate of administrative expenses of the company will gradually drop from 30.0% to 6.0% in 2021-25.

►Research and development expensesWe predict that the company's R & D expenditure rate will gradually drop from 57.0% to 14.0% in 2021-25.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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微泰医疗(2235.HK)：数字化变革，个人血糖管理引领者

Weitai Healthcare (2235.HK): Digital transformation, leader in personal blood sugar management

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