Electronic fuse invisible champion, deep ploughing circuit safety protection for 30 years Haoli science and technology is the domestic electronic fuse invisible champion enterprise, deep ploughing circuit safety protection for 30 years, fuse product line is rich, certification is complete, customer recognition is high. The fundamentals of the company changed greatly in 2021. With the introduction of a new management team and the formulation of XYZ axis development strategy, the annual operating income was 223 million yuan, an increase of 31.56% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 24 million yuan, an increase of 123.85% over the same period last year.
2022Q1 has increased against the trend under the disturbance of the epidemic, and we believe that the company is gradually driving into the fast lane of development.
Fuses: circuit safety guardians, new energy business opening industry a new round of growth fuses are circuit safety guards, circuit overcurrent protection, widely used in the field of new energy. Specifically, in the field of wind power generation and energy storage, fuses provide circuit protection for catchment systems, inverter systems, energy storage systems and control systems. we estimate that the global / domestic fuse market in the field of wind power generation and energy storage will reach 31.9 million yuan in 2025. In the field of new energy vehicles, the electrification trend has significantly boosted the demand for power fuses, and with the smooth development and application of incentive fuses and intelligent fuses, there is room for further improvement in bicycle value. we estimate that the global / domestic market size of fuses for new energy vehicles in 2025 is about 6.22 billion yuan. Fuse industry certification cycle is long, customized demand is high, engineering capacity requirements are high, building a high moat in the industry, foreign investment currently accounts for 90% of the market share, domestic manufacturers Haolilai, Zhongrong Electric and other are expected to break through.
Core focus: platform circuit protection solution providers are rising, new energy business has become the second growth pole in the field of traditional electronic fuses, although it is the Red Sea market, but incremental opportunities still exist, the company actively broadens its product portfolio to cope with the trend of homogeneous competition in the industry, and seize the intelligent opportunity to develop to the platform circuit protection solution provider. In the field of power fuses, the company already has mature products and production lines for large-scale production, and focuses on speeding up targeted product research and development and sales in the field of scenic storage and EV, so as to achieve steady growth in revenue of power fuse products and accessories. According to the company, as of February 28, 2022, the company's electric power orders have increased nearly 7 times compared with the same period last year. In the emerging field, the company promotes business upgrading through strategic investment, and successively invests in chip design enterprises, warp technology, and Hefei industry guidance fund to set up private investment funds, and the landing speed of endogenous extension strategy is faster than expected.
Profit forecast and valuation:
"double carbon" leads the century of change in the energy industry, scenery storage and EV field is in the ascendant, the company's power fuse products are about to be released, elasticity is expected to gradually highlight. In addition, the company has both endogenesis and extension, actively layout emerging industries to promote business upgrading, and successively invest in chip design enterprises and set up private equity funds. we are optimistic that the company will drive into the fast lane of development in an all-round way. We estimate that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 395, 632, 849 million respectively, an increase of 77.4%, 60.1%, 34.3%, and a net profit of 0.50, 0.91, and 123 million, an increase of 107.5%, 81.4%, 35.0%, respectively. Considering that the company is expected to fully drive into the fast lane (revenue CAGR is as high as 56.2% and net profit CAGR is 71.9% in the next three years), we give the company 0.75x PEG in 2023, that is, 54 times PE in 2023, with a target price of 52.31 yuan in 2023, covering the "overweight" rating for the first time.
Risk hints: the price of raw materials has risen sharply, the epidemic continues to exceed expectations, the development of new customers is less than expected, and the macroeconomic downturn and measurement are subjective to a certain extent.
