Due to the short-term factors such as the suspension of classes and the postponement of examinations, the 22Q1 income performance is under short-term pressure.
22Q1 revenue of 1.213 billion is the same as a decrease of 41%; the net profit of return to the mother-464 million is the same as a decrease of 430%. The decline in revenue performance in this period is mainly due to the continuous upgrading of prevention and control measures in various places since 2022, especially since March, when the enrollment peak of the past years, the epidemic situation has far exceeded that of the past two years, and hundreds of directly operated branches around the company have been suspended in stages. At the same time, the provincial examination, the national examination interview and the examination of public institutions have been postponed one after another, and the company's enrollment and teaching have been greatly disturbed.
The contract debt is better than the month-on-month growth. As of March 31, 2022, the company's contract liabilities totaled 4.035 billion yuan, an increase of 32 percent over the beginning of the period.
In the current quarter, after vigorously optimizing the product structure and reducing the number of senior graduates, contract liabilities still maintained positive growth, reflecting, on the one hand, the continuous release of demand for recruitment of public posts under the pressure of strong market demand and employment difficulties for college students; on the other hand, reflecting the company's operational resilience, after weakening the price means, it continued to consolidate and enhance the market share by virtue of multi-dimensional competitive advantages such as teaching and research teachers' channels.
In addition, in view of the substantial improvement in the quality of collection this quarter, effectively eliminating low-quality students and focusing on real testing needs, we expect that the subsequent income performance conversion capacity will improve rapidly, the net interest rate will continue to grow, and the performance is expected to accelerate the recovery.
Personnel optimization to reduce costs and expenditure, focus on efficiency improvement, net gross profit margin stabilized and improved by the end of 2021, the number of public employees decreased by 20%, of which 15000 teachers decreased by 23%. With personnel optimization and efficiency improvement, in recent quarters, Zhonggong has significantly reduced the pressure on purchasing goods, receiving services and paying cash to employees, with 22Q1 of 210 million and 1.23 billion respectively, down 46 per cent and 32 per cent respectively from the same period last year.
At the same time, 22Q1 gross profit margin 38.3%, net profit margin-38.3%, performance stabilized and marginal improvement. Since 2021, the company has accelerated the improvement of collection quality and operating efficiency, continued to optimize redundant personnel and outlets, and the company's net profit margin has been effectively improved from a marginal point of view.
High quality consolidate the leading position of recruitment training, actively develop new business development, on the one hand, consolidate the leading position of recruitment market, take steady development as the first principle; maintain effective R & D investment and strengthen the advantage of leading vocational education innovation platform; deep integration of science and technology and business to realize the digital transformation of management; actively optimize channels and strengthen the core area
On the other hand, in 2022, the company will continue to explore the new business plate of vocational education, set up a vocational education department, integrate internal resources, and cooperate with the government, enterprises and colleges and universities. in artificial intelligence, digital economy, financial media, digital cultural creation, intelligent manufacturing, intelligent aviation and other training direction to explore, invigorate the stock resources, and find new growth points.
Adjust earnings forecasts and give buy ratings. The current performance of the company is affected by both epidemic and policy factors, but this does not change the company's view of long-term trends. Urbanization, equalization of public services, large-scale natural renewal of on-the-job personnel, stable employment and other factors are still the major trend of economic and social development, which also means that the long-tail trend of the recruitment market will continue to strengthen. In the new industry environment, the company will actively carry out product innovation and optimization, respond faster to the demand for new jobs and undertake more forcefully, from the pursuit of high growth scale to sustainable and healthy development. Considering the short-term pressure on the company's performance, we downgrade our profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS of the company for 22-24 years is 0.09,0.11,0.13 yuan respectively (the original value for the previous 22-23 years is 0.33,0.41 yuan respectively), and the PE is 53.7x, 43.0x, 34.5 x respectively.
Risk tips: industry-related policy changes; training demand is lower than expected; market competition intensifies and other risks.