Event: Kingdick released the first quarter of 2022 report, operating income negative growth, loss narrowed year-on-year on April 29, 2022, Kingdick released the first quarter of 2022, revenue negative growth. The operating income is 12.47 million yuan (- 58.50%), the return net profit is-2.64 million yuan (2021Q1 is-5.2947 million yuan), the non-return net profit is-6.8505 million yuan (2021Q1 is-6.6386 million yuan), and the EPS is-0.03 yuan.
Comments:
The impact of the epidemic still suppresses the operation of the company, and the expenditure structure is relatively stable except for management expenses.
The company's operating income decreased compared with the same period last year, mainly due to: 1) due to the influence of COVID-19 's epidemic situation, the company's tetravalent influenza vaccine sales declined compared with the same period last year; 2) the company estimated that 10% of the sales return rate was offset by sales revenue. In terms of expenses, 2022Q1's R & D expenses / sales expenses / financial expenses / management expenses account for 22.66% / 40.90% /-2.46% of operating income respectively, which is 1.2 / 53.63 / 4.3 /-13.12pct compared with 2021Q1. Among them, the decline in R & D expenditure is mainly due to the reduction of R & D investment in some projects of the company and the full capitalization of freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (Vero cell) project.
The company's revenue in the first quarter is relatively small in the whole year, and the performance growth in the third or fourth quarter is expected.
The peak season of domestic influenza vaccine sales is concentrated in September-December. The decline in influenza vaccine sales in 2021 was mainly in the fourth quarter, which was related to the conflict between COVID-19 's intensive vaccination injections in the fourth quarter. Vaccination of COVID-19 vaccine takes up a lot of CDC vaccination resources, while COVID-19 vaccination needs an interval of 14 days with other vaccines, which further affects influenza vaccine vaccination, so influenza vaccine sales decline. After entering the first quarter of 2022, the pressure of epidemic prevention and control is greater, but with the normalization of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control, the country still attaches importance to influenza vaccination in key populations, and influenza vaccination is expected to return to normal.
In 2022, the company will continue to cultivate tetravalent influenza vaccine and develop and sell influenza vaccine simultaneously.
Tetravalent influenza vaccine will enjoy the double dividend of increasing permeability + replacing trivalent market, so focusing on the development and production of tetravalent influenza vaccine is the long-term development trend of domestic influenza vaccine market in the future.
The tetravalent influenza vaccine produced by the company adopts a three-step purification process. Compared with national standards and EU standards, the company's products have lower impurities and higher purity, and the rate of adverse reactions is much lower than the industry average. On the basis of product competitive advantage, the company carries out work in an all-round way to further enhance its competitive advantage in industrialization and commercialization. On the one hand, deeply focus on the development of tetravalent influenza vaccine series products, product pipeline design to achieve full-age coverage. In addition to the adult tetravalent influenza vaccine already on the market for people over 3 years old, the company is also developing a childhood tetravalent influenza vaccine for children from 6 months to 3 years old, and a high-dose tetravalent influenza vaccine for people over 65 years old. On the other hand, the company has made efforts to improve the sales of influenza vaccine and gradually expand the size of the company's sales team. In the second half of the year, with the epidemic under control and the large-scale centralized vaccination of COVID-19 vaccine coming to an end, the short-term negative impact of the epidemic will gradually disappear. It is estimated that the overall income of the company's influenza vaccine series is expected to exceed 2 billion yuan in 2025.
In the future, the company will develop a large single product with multi-dimensional power in the research pipeline + new vaccines, and the company has 7 products under research, covering several types of vaccines with the most potential at present: ① rabies vaccine series products: the company's rabies vaccine series products cover high market share + high-price double varieties. The freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (Vero cells) under development has completed clinical phase III trials and is currently in the process of registration. Another freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (MRC-5 cells) is in the stage of preclinical research and is expected to be applied for clinical use in 2023. ② varicella-blistered vaccine series: simultaneous development of blistered vaccine through two routes. The company's research and development projects of freeze-dried live attenuated varicella vaccine and freeze-dried live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine are expected to be declared clinically in 2022. In addition, the company has carried out a research and development project of recombinant herpes zoster vaccine, which is expected to be declared clinically in 2023. ③ pneumonia vaccine series: the research and development projects of the company's 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine and 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine are expected to be declared for clinical use in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
Investment advice: maintain a "buy" rating
We estimate that the company's operating income in 2022 and 2024 is 9.67 / 12.68 / 1.578 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 146.6% / 31.1% / 24.5% over the same period last year; the net profit returned to the home is 489 million yuan in 2.32 / 350 Universe, an increase of 181.5% / 50.7% / 39.9% over the same period last year; and the PE of the company in 2022 and 2024 is: 14X/ 9X/ 7X. Considering the sustained and rapid development of the vaccine industry, the differentiation advantages of the company's influenza vaccine, capacity expansion and the layout of the pipeline the company is working on, we maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
COVID-19 epidemic situation has an adverse impact on the normal production and operation of the company; the risk that clinical trials are not as expected; the risk of a single main product; and the risk that product promotion is not as expected.