Main points of investment
Events:
When the quarterly report for 2022 was released, the operating income reached 291 million yuan during the period, an increase of 93% over the same period last year; the net profit of return to the mother was 21 million yuan, an increase of 20% over the same period last year; and the net profit of non-return was 8 million yuan, down 33% from the same period last year.
The first quarter results are in line with expectations: a substantial increase in revenue, a month-on-month improvement in gross profit margin, and a sustained increase in orders. The substantial increase in revenue in the first quarter of 2022 is the confirmation of orders for new energy vehicle automation equipment. During the period, the gross profit margin was 23.7%, lower 9.3pct than the same period last year, increased 1.8pct month-on-month, and the profitability was stable. The sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate is 1.7%, 7.2%, 13.3%, respectively, with a year-on-year change-0.6pct/-2.7pct/3.2pct. The company attaches great importance to R & D, and its R & D expenditure is at a high level in a single quarter. At the end of the first quarter, inventory / contract liabilities were 40 million yuan, an increase of 21% over the previous quarter, indicating that the market demand is strong and the company's orders are growing rapidly.
The acquisition of Ningde Dongheng Machinery, cut into the lithium battery module structure, the new product layout made a major breakthrough Ningde Dongheng Machinery main lithium battery precision structure, widely used in the shell structure of power battery module. According to the announcement, its main customer is a key international vehicle enterprise.
The operating income of Dongheng Machinery from 2020 to 2021 is 4.1x90 million yuan respectively, and its lithium battery structure is expected to produce upstream and downstream coordination with the company's new energy vehicle automation equipment, further increase the company's production capacity, strengthen the binding with Ningde era, and implement the two-wheel drive development strategy of new energy vehicle equipment and products.
The award of the equity incentive plan has been completed, demonstrating the confidence of the management; the current stock price relative to the grant price is 19% discount. In 2022, the equity incentive plan awarded a total of 1 million restricted shares at a price of 108 yuan (the current stock price is 87 yuan). It is awarded to a total of 148 directors, executives and business backbones of the target company.
New energy vehicle module / PACK equipment leader, the five factors driving performance acceleration are: 1) growth of new energy vehicles; 2) improvement of automation rate of equipment; 3) domestic substitution; 4) globalization; 5) breakthroughs in new products and new fields.
It is estimated that the domestic module / PACK line market will reach 11.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 19% from 2021 to 2025.
Growth drivers: 1) the demand for lithium power equipment continues to grow; 2) the module / PACK automation rate increases.
From domestic substitution to global supply. 1) the company's domestic market share is about 25% in 2020, and there is room for further improvement. 2) with the rapid growth of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States, it is estimated that the market size of European / American module / PACK line will reach 8.3 billion yuan in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will reach 20%. 67%.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's homing net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 27,000,000 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 281%, 73% and 36%, respectively; corresponding to 2022-2024, the PE is twice as much as 21-12-9, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: increased competition in the industry, new product expansion is not as expected, the progress of asset restructuring is not as expected.