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观点 | 市场大幅波动,看好港口低估值高成长龙头
Opinion | Market fluctuates sharply, optimistic about the low valuation and high growth leader of the port

中金點睛 ·  {{timeTz}}

市场波动较大时,港口行业由于稳增长的特性,往往能够跑赢大盘。长期看,多年港口费率承压之后,伴随上游航运公司业绩的大幅改善,我们预计港口费率将逐步企稳。我们看好占据腹地区位优势,低估值、高股息、高弹性的个股。

When the market fluctuates greatly, the port industry is often able to outperform the market because of its steady growth. In the long run, after years of pressure on port rates, with the substantial improvement in the performance of upstream shipping companies, we expect port rates to gradually stabilize. We are optimistic to occupy the hinterland location advantage, undervalued, high dividend, high flexibility of the individual stocks.

摘要

Abstract

为什么这个时点低估值港口龙头公司值得配置?

Why is the undervalued port leading company worth configuring at this point?

► 短期疫情影响有限,封控政策解除后前期积压货量的出口和赶工效应带来的生产提速有望驱动需求高增长:2-3Q22我们预计港口板块业绩或能够边际改善,干散及原油向好,集装箱关注外贸的疫后复苏。

The impact of the short-term ► epidemic is limited, and the production acceleration brought about by the early backlog of exports and the rush effect after the lifting of the closure policy is expected to drive high demand growth:2-3Q22 We expect the performance of the port sector to improve marginally, dry dispersion and crude oil to improve, and containers to focus on the post-epidemic recovery of foreign trade.

► 沿海港口的无序扩张放缓。从2016年到2021年,沿海港口固定资产投资年复合减少5%左右。未来需求增长逐步填充富余产能,港口板块整体投资回报率或将得到提升,并迎来高投资回报的红利时代。

The disorderly expansion of ► coastal ports has slowed.From 2016 to 2021, fixed asset investment in coastal ports will decrease by about 5% a year. The future demand growth will gradually fill the surplus capacity, the overall investment return of the port sector may be improved, and usher in the dividend era of high investment return.

► 港口区域一体化的整合有效遏制恶性竞争。2015年开始国家推进港口区域一体化改革,以「一省一集团」为目标,浙江、江苏、辽宁、山东等省份港口陆续开始整合之路,我们认为从竞争格局的角度看各区域内港口的价格战时代走向结束,板块整体的盈利能力有望回升。

The integration of regional integration of ► ports effectively curbs the vicious competition.The country began to promote the reform of regional port integration in 2015, with the goal of "one province, one group". Ports in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Shandong and other provinces began to integrate one after another. we believe that from the perspective of competition pattern, the era of price war among ports in each region is coming to an end, and the profitability of the plate as a whole is expected to pick up.

► 受益反垄断到期及航运景气度传导,定价机制更加灵活。国家发改委对港口的反垄断调查监管已纷纷到期,另外由于港口行业属于航运的上游产业,复盘历史,航运景气度会向港口传导。港口之间从先前量的竞争逐步转向质量和服务的竞争,行业本身的定价机制也有望随着定价政策的边际改善倾向而重新理顺,带来价值回归和估值修复。

► benefits from antitrust expiration and shipping magnanimity transmission, and the pricing mechanism is more flexible.The anti-monopoly investigation and supervision of the port by the National Development and Reform Commission has expired one after another. in addition, as the port industry belongs to the upstream shipping industry, reviewing the history, the shipping scene will be transmitted to the port. The competition between ports has gradually shifted from the competition of quantity to the competition of quality and service, and the pricing mechanism of the industry itself is expected to be re-straightened out with the marginal improvement tendency of pricing policy, bringing value return and valuation repair.

风险

Risk

宏观经济下行、新冠疫情扩散超预期。

The macroeconomic downturn and the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.

正文

Text

港口行业:大国重器,迎风而上

Port industry: the heavy weapon of a big country, facing the wind

港口本质:区位和腹地决定规模大小,竞争格局决定盈利强弱

Port essence: location and hinterland determine size, competition pattern determines profitability.

港口行业的主要业务是为客户提供集装箱、干散货和液体散货的装卸、存放及过驳等服务,并从中获取收益。港口是水陆交通的集结点和枢纽处,是工农业产品和外贸进出口物资的集散地,也是船舶停泊、装卸货物、上下旅客、补充给养的场所。截至去年,我国已经形成环渤海、长江三角洲、东南沿海、珠江三角洲和西南沿海5个港口群,煤炭、石油、铁矿石、集装箱、粮食、商品汽车、陆岛滚装和旅客运输等8个运输系统布局。港口行业的上游包括港口作业机械设备制造企业、港口作业管理信息技术企业等;下游主要包括物流服务企业和贸易企业等。

The main business of the port industry is to provide customers with services such as loading, unloading, storage and barging of containers, dry bulk and liquid bulk cargo. Port is the gathering point and hub of land and water transportation, the distribution center of industrial and agricultural products and foreign trade import and export materials, and also the place where ships berth, load and unload goods, get on and off passengers and replenish supplies. As of last year, China had formed five port groups around the Bohai Sea, the Yangtze River Delta, the southeast coast, the Pearl River Delta and the southwest coast. There are eight transportation systems, such as coal, oil, iron ore, containers, grain, commodity cars, land-island ro-ro and passenger transport. The upstream of the port industry includes port operation machinery and equipment manufacturing enterprises, port operation management information technology enterprises, etc.; downstream mainly includes logistics service enterprises and trade enterprises.

港口具有区域垄断的性质,港口货源及业务量很大程度上取决于所处区域的资源约束、经济情况以及政策发展。环渤海区域由于重工业较为发达,区域内港口企业受益于资源运输需求的影响,货物吞吐量较大,且港口货源主要以煤炭、矿石、木材等上游原材料为主;长三角地区、东南沿海地区和珠江三角洲的腹地经济相对发达,对外贸易规模较大,有较强劲的进出口及内贸运输需求,因此港口的货物吞吐规模较大,主要货源为集装箱和干散货;而西南沿海地区经济腹地为广西、海南等,经济发展水平相对薄弱,其港口的发展更多受益于国家政策的支持和推动。

The port has the nature of regional monopoly, and the port cargo source and business volume depend to a large extent on the resource constraints, economic situation and policy development of the region. In the Bohai Rim region, due to the relatively developed heavy industry, the port enterprises in the region benefit from the influence of resource transport demand, and the cargo throughput is relatively large, and the port goods are mainly supplied by coal, ore, timber and other upstream raw materials. The economy of the Yangtze River Delta, the southeast coastal areas and the hinterland of the Pearl River Delta is relatively developed, the scale of foreign trade is large, and there is a strong demand for import, export and domestic trade, so the cargo handling scale of the port is relatively large, and the main sources of cargo are containers and dry bulk cargo; while the economic hinterland of the southwest coastal areas are Guangxi and Hainan, the level of economic development is relatively weak, and the development of its ports benefits more from the support and promotion of national policies.

图表1:港口行业主要投资特点及沿海主要港口分布情况

Chart 1: the main investment characteristics of the port industry and the distribution of major coastal ports

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资料来源:交通运输部,中金公司研究部

Source: Ministry of Transportation, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

图表2:港口行业与上下游紧密相连

Figure 2: the port industry is closely connected with the upstream and downstream.

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资料来源:公司公告,中金公司研究部

Source: company announcement, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

中国港口:吞吐量领先全球,随国家对外开放进程提速而不断发展

China's ports lead the world in throughput and continue to develop with the acceleration of the country's opening up to the outside world.

作为贸易大国,中国港口规模领先全球。2001年中国加入WTO后,随着我国对外贸易的快速发展,港口货物吞吐量呈现出加速增长的态势,我国港口曾迎来发展的黄金期。2000年至2021年,中国港口集装箱吞吐量由410万TEU增长至2.8亿TEU,年复合增长率高达22%。截至2021年,中国集装箱吞吐量占全球的32%,2021年全球前十大集装箱港口中国占据七席,皆体现了我国港口在全球的重要发展地位。

As a major trading country, the scale of China's ports leads the world.After China joined the WTO in 2001, with the rapid development of China's foreign trade, the port cargo throughput shows a trend of accelerated growth, and China's ports have ushered in a golden period of development. From 2000 to 2021, the container throughput of Chinese ports increased from 4.1 million TEU to 280 million TEU, with an annual compound growth rate of 22%. By 2021, China accounted for 32% of the world's container throughput, and China accounted for seven of the top 10 container ports in the world in 2021, reflecting the important development position of China's ports in the world.

图表3:全国主要港口集装箱吞吐量呈现稳步提升状态,近10年以来增速逐年放缓

Figure 3: the container throughput of the country's major ports has increased steadily, and the growth rate has slowed down year by year in the past 10 years.

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资料来源:交通运输部,中金公司研究部

Source: Ministry of Transportation, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

图表4:加入WTO后我国集装箱吞吐量占比例迅速提高

Chart 4: the proportion of container throughput in China has increased rapidly after China's entry into WTO.

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资料来源:上海国际航运研究中心,中金公司研究部

Source: Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

图表5:2021年全球前十大集装箱港口中国占据七席

Chart 5: China occupies seven seats in the world's top ten container ports in 2021

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资料来源:Alphaliner,中金公司研究部

Source: Alphaliner, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

港口投资:估值处于低位,前期压制因素已发生改变

Port investment: valuation is low, previous repression factors have changed

港口整体估值处于低位,未来边际向好。2000年以来,中国外贸出口运输需求保持较快增速,港口板块也受益于国家外向型经济发展方针的支持,整体估值处于30倍左右高位。近三年以来,港口板块因为受到反垄断调查、贸易摩擦、新冠疫情等各种不利因素的影响,业绩和成长中枢逐步下移,板块估值回落至10-15倍PE的区间。我们认为,随着港口产能扩张放缓、区域整合不断推进以及自主定价能力的提升,港口板块有望迎来业绩和估值的双重修复。

The overall valuation of the port is low and the future margin is good. Since 2000, China's export transport demand has maintained a relatively rapid growth, and the port sector has also benefited from the support of the country's export-oriented economic development policy, and the overall valuation is about 30 times high. In the past three years, due to the influence of anti-monopoly investigation, trade friction, COVID-19 epidemic and other unfavorable factors, the performance and growth center of the port sector have gradually moved down, and the valuation of the port sector has dropped to a range of 10-15 times PE. We believe that with the slowdown in port capacity expansion, the continuous progress of regional integration and the improvement of independent pricing power, the port sector is expected to usher in a dual repair of performance and valuation.

图表6:港口行业主要驱动因素历史复盘

Figure 6: historical review of the main drivers of the port industry

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资料来源:万得资讯,中金公司研究部

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

图表7:港口板块市盈率已经处于平均值以下1倍标准差的位置

Figure 7: the price-to-earnings ratio of the port sector is already at 1 times the standard deviation below the average.

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资料来源:万得资讯,中金公司研究部

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

产能过剩供过于求转向供需基本匹配:为支持腹地经济贸易发展,「十五」与「十一五」期间各地港口纷纷进行大规模的基建,港口行业产能扩张进一步提速。然而由于需求端的增速变化,「十二五」与「十三五」期间,港口开始逐步重视产能过剩的问题,过去的超前投资在2016年以来沿海港口建设成熟后,呈现新增资本开支投资趋缓的势头;2017年以来,我国港口企业的融资规模不断下降,港口投资回归理性,港口行业产能过剩、行业景气度预期下降等因素已经趋于缓和。沿海港口的无序扩张放缓,从2016年到2021年,沿海港口固定资产投资年复合减少4.8%左右。我们认为未来需求增长或能够逐步填充富余产能,港口板块整体投资回报率或将逐步提升,港口行业将逐步迎来高投资回报的红利时代。

Overcapacity oversupply turns to a basic match between supply and demand:In order to support the economic and trade development of the hinterland, large-scale infrastructure projects have been carried out in various ports during the 10th five-year Plan and the Eleventh five-year Plan period, and the capacity expansion of the port industry has been further accelerated. However, due to the change in the growth rate on the demand side, during the 12th five-year Plan and the 13th five-year Plan period, the port began to pay more and more attention to the problem of overcapacity. After the coastal port construction has matured since 2016, the trend of new capital expenditure investment has slowed down. Since 2017, the financing scale of China's port enterprises has been declining, port investment has returned to rationality, port industry overcapacity, industry prosperity is expected to decline and other factors have tended to ease. The disorderly expansion of coastal ports has slowed, with fixed asset investment in coastal ports falling by about 4.8 per cent a year from 2016 to 2021. We believe that the future demand growth may be able to gradually fill the surplus capacity, the overall return on investment in the port sector may gradually increase, and the port industry will gradually usher in a dividend era of high investment return.

图表8:近5年沿海港口固定资产投资额较低

Figure 8: low fixed asset investment in coastal ports in the past 5 years

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资料来源:国家统计局,中金公司研究部

Source: national Bureau of Statistics, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

图表9:2014年后新(扩)建码头泊位数量与年吞吐量显著下滑

Chart 9. After 2014, the number of berths and annual throughput of new (expanded) terminals decreased significantly.

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资料来源:中国港口协会,万得资讯,中金公司研究部

Source: China Port Association, Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

部分区域港口的腹地需求、客户重合带来恶性竞争的问题随着港口整合的推进而逐步好转。我国五大港口群(环渤海、长三角三角洲、东南沿海、珠江三角洲、西南沿海)的港口分布密度高,存在重合度高、竞争激烈的情况。而通过合理的规划对现有港口进行整合,比如划分货种或功能分区共同管理,理论上能帮助解决相邻港口之间的非理性和同质化竞争。例如2007年广西省推出将防城港、钦州港、北海港三港整合为北部湾港的计划;2015年浙江省领头,江苏省、辽宁省、山东省、福建省、广东省等多地陆续呼应开始提出省内港口整合。「十二五」与「十三五」期间,港口迎来「整合并购潮」,以「一省一集团」为目标进行整合。到2021年年底,中国沿海5大港口群的初步整合基本完毕,港口区域一体化和功能化分区得到实现。我们认为从竞争格局的角度看,各区域内港口的价格战时代走向结束,区域格局向好,板块整体盈利有望同步回升。

The hinterland demand of some regional ports and the problem of vicious competition brought about by customer overlap gradually improve with the advance of port integration.The port distribution density of the five major port groups in China (around the Bohai Sea, the Yangtze Delta, the southeast coast, the Pearl River Delta and the southwest coast) is high, with high coincidence and fierce competition. The integration of existing ports through reasonable planning, such as the division of goods or the joint management of functional zones, can theoretically help to solve the irrational and homogeneous competition between adjacent ports. For example, in 2007, Guangxi Province launched a plan to integrate Fangcheng Port, Qinzhou Port and Beihai Port into Beibu Gulf Port; in 2015, Zhejiang Province took the lead. Jiangsu Province, Liaoning Province, Shandong Province, Fujian Province, Guangdong Province and other places have begun to propose the integration of ports in the province. During the "Twelfth five-year Plan" and "13th five-year Plan", the port ushered in the tide of integration and mergers and acquisitions, with the goal of "one province, one group". By the end of 2021, the initial integration of China's five major coastal port groups has been basically completed, and the regional integration and functional zoning of ports have been realized. We believe that from the perspective of competition pattern, the price war era of ports in each region is coming to an end, the regional pattern is improving, and the overall profitability of the plate is expected to rise synchronously.

图表10:部分港口整合进展

Figure 10: progress in the integration of some ports

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资料来源:公司公告,中国港口协会,中金公司研究部

Source: company announcement, China Port Association, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

► 港口收费政策日趋市场化。2017年以来的港口反垄断调查纷纷到期,另外由于港口行业属于航运的上游产业,目前港口是供应链中较为紧张和拥堵的环节之一,我们认为航运企业盈利和现金流大幅度增长,为港口企业谈判提供了良好的外部环境和充足的空间。港口之间从先前量的竞争转向质量和服务的竞争,行业本身的定价机制也有望随着港口定价政策的边际改善倾向而重新理顺。我们认为企业可根据自身经营和成本等因素灵活调整定价,有望带来价值回归和估值修复,尤其在波动幅度较大的市场条件下,业绩相对稳定、持续分红的枢纽港口企业具有较强的配置价值。

► port charging policy is becoming more and more market-oriented. Since 2017, port antitrust investigations have expired one after another. in addition, as the port industry belongs to the upstream shipping industry, and the port is currently one of the more tense and congested links in the supply chain, we believe that the profits and cash flow of shipping enterprises have increased significantly, which provides a good external environment and sufficient space for port enterprises to negotiate. The competition between ports has shifted from quantity to quality and service, and the pricing mechanism of the industry itself is expected to be re-straightened out with the marginal improvement tendency of port pricing policy. We believe that enterprises can flexibly adjust pricing according to their own operation, cost and other factors, which is expected to bring value return and valuation repair, especially under the market conditions with large fluctuations, the hub port enterprises with relatively stable performance and continuous dividends have a strong allocation value.

图表11:港口收费项目中部分政府定价/指导价项目开始转变为市场调节价

Figure 11: some government pricing / guiding price items in port charges have been transformed into market-regulated prices.

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资料来源:交通运输部,中金公司研究部

Source: Ministry of Transportation, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

图表12:2017-2018年发改委反垄断调查后降费率以及外贸普通重箱提费情况

Chart 12Pang 2017-2018 NDRC's anti-monopoly investigation on the reduction of rates and the lifting of ordinary heavy boxes in foreign trade

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资料来源:各港口公司官网,中金公司研究部

Source: official website of port companies, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

注:下调幅度对应2018年降价情况

Note: the reduction corresponds to the price reduction in 2018.

图表13:2017-2018年降费率后沿海各主要港口集装箱装卸业务毛利率受到一定程度的负面影响

Chart 13 after the rate reduction in 2017-2018, the gross profit margin of container handling operations in major coastal ports has been negatively affected to a certain extent.

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资料来源:公司公告,中金公司研究部

Source: company announcement, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

未来发展趋势:转型(多元化)或出海成出路

Future development trend: transformation (diversification) or going out to sea as a way out

我们认为随着港口行业的产能扩张逐步放缓,转型与出海成为港口行业发展的新思路,港口行业的发展进入新阶段。

We believe that with the gradual slowdown of the capacity expansion of the port industry, transformation and going out to sea has become a new idea for the development of the port industry, and the development of the port industry has entered a new stage.

►  转型:传统港口行业以货物装卸和堆存为主要业务,但港口内发生大量客流、物流和资金流,港口公司可利用自有优势提供包括综合物流服务、供应链金融等增值服务,降低对于单一货种和单一业务的依赖;另外一方面,港口板块现金流较好,可以在港口装卸业务之外选择回报合理的资产进行投资,从目前来看,金融是较为常见的选择,例如上港集团投资入股上海银行、邮储银行等。此外,盘活港区内土地等存量资产,也能为公司带来新的增长动能。

Transformation:The traditional port industry takes cargo handling and storage as the main business, but there are a large number of passenger flow, logistics and capital flow in the port. Port companies can make use of their own advantages to provide value-added services, including integrated logistics services, supply chain finance and so on. Reduce dependence on a single type of goods and a single business On the other hand, the cash flow of the port plate is good, and we can choose assets with reasonable returns to invest outside the port loading and unloading business. at present, finance is a more common choice, such as Shanghai Bank, Postal Savings Bank of China and so on. In addition, invigorating the stock of assets such as land in the port area can also bring new growth momentum to the company.

图表14:青岛港:开拓山东地炼客户,液体散货业务利润贡献提升

Figure 14: Qingdao Port: open up Shandong Geolian customers, improve the profit contribution of liquid bulk business

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资料来源:公司公告,中金公司研究部   注:使用分部税前利润   

Source: company announcement, China International Capital Corporation Research Department Note: use segment pre-tax profit

图表15:上港集团:利用资金和土地资源,金融地产利润占比提升

Chart 15: Shanghai Group: using capital and land resources, financial and real estate profits share increased

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资料来源:公司公告,中金公司研究部

Source: company announcement, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

►  出海:由于航运是全球性的,产业转移之后只要生产地与消费地不重合,依然存在货物吞吐的需求,而新兴市场国家正经历相对快速的增长,因此未来海外码头的吞吐量增长有可能快于国内。近年来,中国企业布局海外港口显著提速。仅2013年,中国企业就获得了17个海外码头的经营权。对于中远海运港口、招商局港口等投资控股型公司,很早就已经开始海外码头的投资,2021年两家公司的海外吞吐量均实现比国内更高的增长,并且已经占到总吞吐量的23%、25%。其中,招商局港口公司通过收购法国Terminal Link港口公司49%的股权,获得了该公司旗下四大洲8个国家15个码头的经营权(含一个国内码头)。当前世界吞吐量排名前200位的海外港口中,中企参与经营的有二十多家,其中一半以上都是2013年及以后投资的。

► goes out to sea:As shipping is global, as long as the place of production and consumption do not coincide after the industrial transfer, there is still a demand for cargo handling, while emerging market countries are experiencing relatively rapid growth. therefore, the throughput of overseas terminals is likely to grow faster than that of domestic terminals in the future. In recent years, the distribution of overseas ports by Chinese enterprises has increased significantly. In 2013 alone, Chinese companies won the right to operate 17 overseas terminals. For investment-controlled companies such as COSCO Shipping Port and China Merchants Port, they have started to invest in overseas terminals a long time ago. In 2021, the overseas throughput of the two companies has achieved higher growth than that at home, and has accounted for 23% and 25% of the total throughput. Among them, China Merchants Port Company acquired the right to operate 15 terminals (including one domestic terminal) in eight countries on four continents through the acquisition of 49 per cent of France's Terminal Link Port Company. At present, among the top 200 overseas ports in the world in terms of throughput, more than 20 Chinese enterprises are involved in operation, more than half of which are invested in 2013 and beyond.

图表16:中远海运港口与招商局港口海外码头的吞吐量占比不断上升

Chart 16: the throughput of Cosco seaborne port and China Merchants Port overseas terminal is increasing.

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资料来源:公司公告,中金公司研究部

Source: company announcement, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

图表17:上港集团和青岛港的出海尝试

Figure 17: attempts by Shanghai Port Group and Qingdao Port to go to sea

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资料来源:公司公告,中金公司研究部

Source: company announcement, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

看好低估值、稳增长、高分红的枢纽港口

Be optimistic about the hub ports with low valuation, steady growth and high dividends

短期疫情影响有限,封控政策解除后的赶工效应或将减弱负面冲击。虽然疫情反复给港口作业带来一定影响,但沿海主要港口对内严格施行专人专班制度,对一线作业人员采用网格化管理,维护港口生产有序进行,港区处于正常作业状态。根据交通运输部数据,一季度全国港口完成货物吞吐量36.31亿吨,同比增长1.6%,其中完成外贸货物吞吐量11.06亿吨,同比下降4.7%;完成集装箱吞吐量6,738万TEU,同比增长2.4%。从更高频的数据来看,4月疫情对港口货运也产生了负面影响。根据中国港口协会,4月中旬沿海主要枢纽港口货物吞吐量同比减少5.2%,其中外贸货物吞吐量同比减少4.9%,内贸同比增加5.4%;4月中旬,八大枢纽港口集装箱吞吐量同比下降,集装箱吞吐量同比减少5.7%,其中外贸同比减少4.1%,内贸同比减少9.9%。往后看,我们认为,随着本轮疫情逐步受到控制,部分因物流受阻而滞留的货物的出口需求仍有大幅反弹的空间。

The impact of the short-term epidemic is limited, and the rush effect after the lifting of the closure policy may weaken the negative impact.Although the epidemic repeatedly has a certain impact on port operations, the main coastal ports strictly implement the special shift system internally, adopt grid management for front-line operators, maintain orderly port production, and the port area is in a state of normal operation. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, in the first quarter, the cargo throughput of ports across the country was 3.631 billion tons, an increase of 1.6 percent over the same period last year, of which the cargo throughput of foreign trade was 1.106 billion tons, down 4.7 percent from the same period last year. The container throughput was 67.38 million TEU, an increase of 2.4 percent over the same period last year. Judging from more high-frequency data, the April outbreak also had a negative impact on port freight. According to the China Ports Association, the cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports decreased by 5.2% in mid-April compared with the same period last year, of which foreign trade cargo throughput decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, and domestic trade increased by 5.4%. In mid-April, the container throughput of the eight major hub ports decreased year-on-year, container throughput decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, foreign trade decreased by 4.1% and domestic trade decreased by 9.9%. Looking back, we believe that as the current epidemic is gradually brought under control, there is still room for a substantial rebound in the export demand of some goods stranded by logistics.

图表18:2022年1-3月全国港口完成集装箱吞吐量6,738万TEU,同比增长2.4%

Chart 18: from January to March 2022, the container throughput of ports across the country reached 67.38 million TEU, an increase of 2.4% over the same period last year.

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资料来源:交通运输部,中金公司研究部

Source: Ministry of Transportation, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

我们看好占据枢纽区位,具备货物供应链和配套业务发展能力的综合性港口。从长期发展来看,随着中转业务的增加,我们认为集装箱港口或将进一步集中,枢纽港的成长性将超过其他港口,竞争格局有望持续向好:1)随着人工成本增加,劳动密集型产业向外转移,加工出口为主导的经济增速放缓,腹地箱量较难回到高速增长状态,中转、物流、货代等业务将是未来港口增长的重点,枢纽港将凸显其节点优势;2)船公司为节约成本、提高经济性,集装箱船舶的大型化(目前世界最大的集装箱船已达2.4万标准箱)趋势明显,枢纽港的中转、集货和分拨作用将更加显著;3)水深条件好、装卸效率高的港口能够吸引更多的箱量。

We are optimistic about the comprehensive port which occupies the hub location and has the ability of cargo supply chain and supporting business development.From the perspective of long-term development, with the increase of transit business, we think that container ports may be further concentrated, the growth of hub ports will exceed that of other ports, and the competition pattern is expected to continue to improve: 1) with the increase in labor costs, labor-intensive industries shift outward, the economic growth rate dominated by processing and export slows down, and it is difficult for the volume of containers in the hinterland to return to the state of rapid growth. Transit, logistics, freight forwarding and other services will be the focus of future port growth, and the hub port will highlight its node advantages. 2) in order to save costs and improve economy, the trend of large-scale container ships (at present, the largest container ship in the world has reached 24000 TEUs) is obvious. the role of hub ports in transit, cargo collection and distribution will be more significant; 3) the ports with good water depth and high loading and unloading efficiency can attract more containers.

图表19:中国港口黄金时代已过,吞吐量增速放缓

Figure 19: the golden age of China's ports is over, and throughput growth is slowing down.

640?wx_fmt=png资料来源:上海国际航运研究中心,交通运输部,中金公司研究部

Source: Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, Ministry of Transport, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

图表20:海外经验:釜山港同样经历增速放缓,但转口业务增速仍较高

Chart 20: overseas experience: Busan Port has also experienced a slowdown in growth, but the growth rate of re-export business is still high.

640?wx_fmt=png资料来源:釜山港务局,中金公司研究部

Source: Pusan Port Bureau, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

在多年港口费率承压之后,伴随上游集运公司的业绩大幅改善,我们预计集装箱港口费率将逐步企稳,自下而上精选低估值、高弹性个股。

After years of pressure on port rates, with the significant improvement in the performance of upstream container companies, we expect container port rates to gradually stabilize and select undervalued and highly flexible stocks from the bottom up.

图表20:市场波动较大时,港口行业由于稳增长的特性,往往能够跑赢大盘

Chart 20: when the market is volatile, the port industry tends to outperform the market because of its steady growth.

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资料来源:万得资讯,中金公司研究部

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

风险

Risk

► 宏观经济下行。港口是宏观经济的「晴雨表」,港口生产情况能够一定程度上反映宏观经济运行态势。如果宏观经济超预期下行,对港口的吞吐量和物流业务可能带来负面影响。

► macro-economic downturn.The port is the "barometer" of the macro-economy, and the port production can reflect the macro-economic operation situation to a certain extent. If the macroeconomic decline exceeds expectations, it may have a negative impact on port throughput and logistics business.

► 新冠疫情扩散超预期。如果新冠肺炎扩散超预期,影响国内部分企业复工延迟等,可能会带来航运贸易需求的降低,以及集疏港效率下降,将对港口公司未来的收入及利润增速产生不利影响。

► COVID-19 epidemic spread more than expected.If the spread of COVID-19 exceeds expectations and affects the delay in resuming work of some domestic enterprises, it may lead to a decrease in the demand for shipping trade and a decline in the efficiency of the collection and distribution port, which will adversely affect the future income and profit growth of port companies.

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